WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#81 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:58 pm

Aside from Okinawa, this could be a very serious problem for North and South Korea. (Not that we'd know what the situation would be like in North Korea.) But if the track shifts east, this could be South Korea's worst typhoon since Super Typhoon Maemi in 2003.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#82 Postby madness » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:51 pm

And JWTC has Bolaven as a typhoon in Liaoning/Jilin provinces China - this is insane
Going to be a very interesting landfall in a few days
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#83 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:39 pm

Any updates on the intensity of this one? The last update was at 18:00 UTC, which was a long time ago.
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#84 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:10 pm

Daito Islands are now reporting Tropical Storm-force winds of around 65kph and the system is still roughly 300km away!! :eek: :double:

also, JTWC confirming my hunch yesterday of an eyewall replacement cycle.. eye still looks amazing though, let's see how Bolaven reacts with this replacement... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:16 pm

wow very impressive typhoon, just shy of becoming a super typhoon! as others have said, dvorak isn't too reliable and should not be a method to use to determine the intensity of a tropical cyclone especially strong ones...dvorak is very poor and are always on the low side...too bad there isn't any recon in the west pacific anymore!
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#86 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:19 pm

Image

:double: seems to have strengthened further as the eye cleared out and became more circular...
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#87 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:26 pm

Image

okinawa is in for a ride!

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 23.5N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.9N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.6N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 34.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 43.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 50.3N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 131.8E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. A
242105Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SELF-INDUCED MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH,
ANCHORED JUST EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIMETER
OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 16W TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU
36 AND 72, DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT
WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN APPROACHING DEEP
LONG WAVE TROUGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 16W SHOULD TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH KOREA AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND
ITS REMNANTS WILL BE A COLD CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 120.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:55 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:21 am

Image

impressive bolaven!
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#90 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:02 am

95 knots 930 hPa (JMA)

Image

TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 25 August 2012

<Analyses at 25/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N24°10'(24.2°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL650km(350NM)

<Estimate for 25/07 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N24°20'(24.3°)
E131°10'(131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°40'(24.7°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 60km(30NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°10'(25.2°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°50'(25.8°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20'(26.3°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#91 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:12 am

I kinda miss Infdidoll's reports when typhoons of this proportion come to Okinawa. :lol: Looks like this storm is going to be one of the worst typhoons to pass over the island. Yeah given Okinawa is a sturdy concrete jungle but if you have a possible supertyphoon moving at a slow pace then that would be hell. There lies hope if the EWRC will weaken the storm a bit, though so far the EWR doesn't affect much of Bolaven's intensity. In fact the eye looks intense still!
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#92 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:15 am

dexterlabio wrote:I kinda miss Infdidoll's reports when typhoons of this proportion come to Okinawa. :lol: Looks like this storm is going to be one of the worst typhoons to pass over the island. Yeah given Okinawa is a sturdy concrete jungle but if you have a possible supertyphoon moving at a slow pace then that would be hell. There lies hope if the EWRC will weaken the storm a bit, though so far the EWR doesn't affect much of Bolaven's intensity. In fact the eye looks intense still!

I wonder if Bolaven becomes a violent typhoon (≥105 knots) before making landfall over Okinawa Island.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#93 Postby B In macau » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 am

Meow wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:I kinda miss Infdidoll's reports when typhoons of this proportion come to Okinawa. :lol: Looks like this storm is going to be one of the worst typhoons to pass over the island. Yeah given Okinawa is a sturdy concrete jungle but if you have a possible supertyphoon moving at a slow pace then that would be hell. There lies hope if the EWRC will weaken the storm a bit, though so far the EWR doesn't affect much of Bolaven's intensity. In fact the eye looks intense still!

I wonder if Bolaven becomes a violent typhoon (≥105 knots) before making landfall over Okinawa Island.



JTWC has a much higher current and predicted intensity than JMA peaking at up to 135kn sustained

:double: :double: :double:

Image

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#94 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:52 am

Man, Tembin was really a long arduous slog to cover, exhausted, so decided to chill out on this nearby Japanese island called Okinawa which I heard is really nice place... :wink:
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Re:

#95 Postby B In macau » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:00 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Man, Tembin was really a long arduous slog to cover, exhausted, so decided to chill out on this nearby Japanese island called Okinawa which I heard is really nice place... :wink:



Woohoo Too good and too close to pass up the oportunity to get to okinawa!!!

Hang on tight, do you have some first hand photos and videos from Tembin?
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#96 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:36 am

Thanks, not had time to upload footage from Tembin, plus I missed the eyewall. As ever will update here when I can with conditions in Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#97 Postby DukeDevil91 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:41 am

Any chance this thing reaches cat 5? Okinawa is about to get SLAMMED
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#98 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 8:37 am

Is it a Category 5? Because Wikipedia is saying that it's a Category 5 typhoon. If it's not a Category 5, is there any chance it would become one?
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#99 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:15 am

dexterlabio wrote:I kinda miss Infdidoll's reports when typhoons of this proportion come to Okinawa. :lol: Looks like this storm is going to be one of the worst typhoons to pass over the island. Yeah given Okinawa is a sturdy concrete jungle but if you have a possible supertyphoon moving at a slow pace then that would be hell. There lies hope if the EWRC will weaken the storm a bit, though so far the EWR doesn't affect much of Bolaven's intensity. In fact the eye looks intense still!


We just got to our new home in Virginia (and finally got a reliable internet connection - yay!), but I am still keeping in contact with a few good friends out there. I'm feeling really bad for the wives of the guys in my husband's old unit. Their husbands are all deployed on the boat, right now, so they're all going to be facing this alone or with kids. I'm trying not to scare them to death, but this one might have me a little on edge. Of course, since the 'danger' chip in my brain seems to be defective, of course I wish I was there.

Maybe I'll see if any of them want to give us updates. It might help calm some nerves. The funny thing is that I told them they never need to worry unless I tell them, "Hey, that typhoon hunting guy is coming here!"

Well, James is now there so let the hysteria begin, I suppose. :wink:
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Re: WPAC: BOLAVEN - Typhoon

#100 Postby Infdidoll » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:00 am

HurricaneBill wrote:Aside from Okinawa, this could be a very serious problem for North and South Korea. (Not that we'd know what the situation would be like in North Korea.) But if the track shifts east, this could be South Korea's worst typhoon since Super Typhoon Maemi in 2003.


That is my biggest worry. Okinawa will see some damage (though likely very little loss of life), but for Korea, this is really bad news.

Stay safe, James, and others in the path of this storm!
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