ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

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Cyclenall
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ATL: JOYCE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:59 am

Just put up:

20120820.0515.msg2.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-121N-214W.100pc

Image

Someone else can post the ATCF. This is just south of the Cape Verde islands and the GFS model hints at its development behind 94L. Convection is solid.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#2 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:24 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208200536
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012082000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 129N, 185W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012081918, , BEST, 0, 125N, 200W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 121N, 214W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al962012.invest
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#3 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:24 am

Wow. Getting kinda busy out there. Guess it is that time of year. Thanks for posting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#4 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:39 am

Up to 20% as of 2am.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

3. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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#5 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:18 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N20W TO A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N21W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W
AND 26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN
19W AND 30W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:48 am

Remains at 20%.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:00 am

Hey Cycloneye, or the others... why there is not model thread for 96L? What's up with the models thread? :roll:
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#8 Postby Dave » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:11 am

Model thread for 96L everyone...

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113411
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#9 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:34 am

I'm pretty skeptical on this one at least in the next 5 days. GFS is developing a TUTT over the central Atlantic around 20N/40W which will be due north of this wave.
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#10 Postby fci » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:11 am

This is yet another in the train of disturbances. More behind it...
Last edited by fci on Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:13 am

12z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012082012, , BEST, 0, 127N, 255W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:57 am

IMO, 94L will be the guiding factor for this one. It could either upwell and shear it up, or just clear the dry air so this one develops.
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Re:

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 20, 2012 8:59 am

CrazyC83 wrote:IMO, 94L will be the guiding factor for this one. It could either upwell and shear it up, or just clear the dry air so this one develops.


94L is much larger than this one and what you mentioned will be very important down the road for it to survive or not.
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#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:34 am

its looking at llc is beginning to develop. if convection and develop than we will likely see the chances go up at 2.
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Re:

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:59 am

Aric Dunn wrote:its looking at llc is beginning to develop. if convection and develop than we will likely see the chances go up at 2.


Is this moving faster or slower than 94L? Since that one appears to be clearing the way for this. But if 94 develops, that would greatly increase shear.
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#16 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:02 am

it has to get out of the tropics first. thats the pattern this year.
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 20, 2012 12:59 pm

Up to 30%...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#18 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:14 pm

GFS shows this heading towards the Caribbean slower and more to the South of 94L. You have to believe it might be possible this one has a better shot....94L should take care of the dry air.

Interesting days ahead watching this one as well.....I am starting to suspect perhaps El Nino-ish conditions are occurring out there...but it leads me to wonder if that IS true, and despite that we still have this much activity, isn't that a bit scary? Just a thought I had nothing more.

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#19 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:21 pm

20/1745 UTC 10.4N 25.9W TOO WEAK 96L
20/1145 UTC 10.4N 25.4W TOO WEAK 96L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L

#20 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 20, 2012 2:30 pm

latest saved loop

Image
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