ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:50 am

\We now have invest 97L out by Africa!

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Thread that was the topic for this system at Talking Tropics.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113450
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#2 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:36 am

Well if we get a named storm out of this area before the end of the month we will be tied with 2005! If any one had told me at the start of the season that by the end of August we would be in the position to tie 2005 I wouldn't have believed it! I wonder where we would be right now if El Nino wasn't a player this season!
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#3 Postby Cryomaniac » Fri Aug 24, 2012 5:12 am

Definitely a busy season so far.
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rainstorm

#4 Postby rainstorm » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:11 am

lets see if this can come west.
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#5 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:15 am

is it even possible for this to go the western route? Given all the systems ahead of it?
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:51 am

Stays at 30%


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:24 am

Mentionned as a special feature...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N19W 16N20W...TO A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N21W IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:53 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2012082406, , BEST, 0, 135N, 210W, 25, 1007, DB
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#9 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:55 am

24/1200 UTC 12.9N 23.6W TOO WEAK 97L
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#10 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:25 am

From Wunderground:
:rarrow: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type

06 GMT 08/24/12 13.5N 21.0W 25 1007 Invest
12 GMT 08/24/12 12.7N 23.2W 25 1007 Invest
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#11 Postby Chickenzilla » Fri Aug 24, 2012 11:40 am

It is now at 30 percent (code orange).
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:15 pm

Remains at 30%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#13 Postby colbroe » Fri Aug 24, 2012 1:31 pm

A 1008 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N23W. A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N19W TO 17N22W TO THE LOW CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WSW AT 13 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND S OF THE LOW FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#14 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 2:11 pm

AL, 97, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 127N, 247W, 25, 1006, DB

Pressure down one mb. The last BT updates had the center at 12.9N and then 12.8N, now it's at 12.7N.
There might be a hint of a S of due W movement, but I think at that stage of development it's not even really possible to track the exact location of the LLC with an accuracy of <0.1 degrees.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:26 pm

That's curious that anybody put a sat pic on 97L? :eek: Even, most of us are focus on Isaac, we should not forget that an Invest treeks west even wsw in the Atlantic. Let's keep an eye on it.
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Re:

#16 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:28 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:AL, 97, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 127N, 247W, 25, 1006, DB

Pressure down one mb. The last BT updates had the center at 12.9N and then 12.8N, now it's at 12.7N.
There might be a hint of a S of due W movement, but I think at that stage of development it's not even really possible to track the exact location of the LLC with an accuracy of <0.1 degrees.

You're right, but the more it delays the development phase, the more west it goes and the first on the line of fire are the Lesser Antilles islands.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#17 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:58 pm

Not much there at the moment.

Image
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:32 pm

24/1800 UTC 12.7N 24.7W TOO WEAK 97L
24/1200 UTC 12.9N 23.6W TOO WEAK 97L
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:53 pm

Remains at 30%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L

#20 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:56 pm

In mid-July, this would be at page 25 by now, now Isaac gets all the glory.
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