ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

anyone else notice this is already very likely a TD. impressive circ already established. guess they are busy with Isaac

You think? It looks like the circulation is still a bit elongated SW to NE to me. It may be fully closed, but if it were up to me I probably wouldve waited til tomorrow. I think theyll raise chances in the next TWO though.

[rainstorm]

18Z gfs develops it out to sea.

[WeatherGuesser]

Up to 50%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 50%

I thought so.....

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Portastorm]

Looking like it is getting its act together quite well.

[Gustywind]

Up to 50%


000
ABNT20 KNHC 252345
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N31W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
15N32W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE/LOW LIES WITHIN A LARGE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE/LOW AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
ORGANIZED TODAY. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 28W-36W. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yeah but isn't this just a recurve? then again, early Isaac was supposed to recurve too.

[hurricanes1234]

Looking very disorganized right now.

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ISAAC...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS LOW HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not very surprising that it's down to 40%, given that the convection is displaced to the northeast of the circulation - I'd say there's a 55% chance this goes downhill from here.

[hurricanes1234]

Continues to spin down in the face of wind shear. Was down to 30% last night. If the models showed this developing into a monster hurricane, unfortunately they made a huge mistake, because this is only a sad tropical wave that came off of Africa.

[hurricanes1234]

Continues to spin down in the face of wind shear. Was down to 30% last night. If the models showed this developing into a monster hurricane, unfortunately they made a huge mistake, because this is only a sad tropical wave that came off of Africa.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

97L was never a worry....its the bad boy behind it that will slip under the ridge....and come across IMO...

[rainstorm]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

pesky 97L looks a bit better

[MGC]

Just needs a bit more convection near the center......MGC

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.


SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[rainstorm]

i think it will be a storm.