ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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galaxy401
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#121 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:00 pm

Don't think I ever saw a best track get revised twice. Kirk is sure intensifying fast!
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#122 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:01 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Updated again to 55 knots.

L, 11, 2012083000, , BEST, 0, 255N, 479W, 55, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 10, 0, 30, 1014, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KIRK, M


:double: :eek: If this trend continues, we may have Hurricane Kirk by 11 pm! :eek: :double:

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#123 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:57 pm

New advisory says 50 knots not 55. Maybe it was an error?
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#124 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:50 pm

I guess i must be missing something ... typically a persistent eye feature normally leads to a hurricane... the discussion however is somewhat the opposite. we have a CDO and a eye.. this is not a 60mph TS. not only that is pretty close to being an annular system.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm

#125 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:35 pm

I have the feeling that Kirk could be the first major hurricane of the season, small systems can intensify (or weaken) faster than big ones like 2010 Julia. Kirk has been steadily intensifying in a rather unfavorable environment so it could intensify rapidly when it reaches the favorable conditions.
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#126 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:11 am

NHC is having a hard time with intensity
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm

#127 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:51 am

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:23 am

12z Best Track up to 60kts.

AL, 11, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 268N, 492W, 60, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#129 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:36 am

nice clear eye now. been an eye feature since yesterday afternoon..... and likely a hurricane not long after.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Tropical Storm

#130 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:55 am

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#131 Postby greenkat » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:34 am

track looks a little (emphasis on little) like Katia last year. People in Iceland, Scotland, Scandinavia should keep an eye on this system. :double:
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#132 Postby greenkat » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:37 am

I can see why hurricane hunters are reluctant to fly out there... almost 2000 miles away from Biloxi! :lol:
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#133 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:49 am

Kirk's a cane now.

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
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#134 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:57 am

Tasty little system, eyewall has beefed up big time in the last few hours, RI probably going on at the moment. I think here we have a real candidate for a major hurricane...
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Re:

#135 Postby Macrocane » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:09 am

KWT wrote:Tasty little system, eyewall has beefed up big time in the last few hours, RI probably going on at the moment. I think here we have a real candidate for a major hurricane...


I agree with you, like I said yesterday if it finds good conditions it could intensify rapidly as it's a small system.
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#136 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:33 am

Image
a nice 16 mile wide eye
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#137 Postby Floridaman » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:46 am

I had a feeling "Kirk" was going to be a little storm but it is a nice looking storm though.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane

#138 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:47 am

I wish I had something to scale it off of....what is the diameter? it looks really tiny...
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane

#139 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:53 am

ROCK wrote:I wish I had something to scale it off of....what is the diameter? it looks really tiny...

You could measure it on Google earth
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#140 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:05 am

I'm not sure how big the cloud canopy is, but the wind field sure is small.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
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