ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane

#161 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:41 pm

Oops! Forgot disclaimer.

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hurricanes1234 wrote:90 mph?! Wow! And it still has the chance to intensify even more! Also, Leslie is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane! An interesting period is to come within the next week or two, for sure! :jump:
My personal prediction for these storms:
1. Kirk is a 90 mph storm right now, because it rapidly strengthened from 75 mph to 90 mph in just 6 hours. Therefore, given the favorable conditions ahead, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, especially as Kirk is a small hurricane. I would give the system a 50-70% chance of peaking as a major hurricane, and it will be the first of the season, if it is able to overcome the minor issues, which I am pretty sure it would. Throughout its life so far as a tropical cyclone, Kirk has been an overachiever, strengthening into a hurricane from a previously deteriorating tropical wave that was thought to dissipate in somewhat hostile conditions, without even becoming a tropical depression.

2. Leslie is steadily intensifying, it is now a weak tropical storm, from a newly-formed depression just 6 hours ago. Given the hospitable conditions ahead, I would expect this to strengthen into a major hurricane, but gradually. Then, it should weaken in about 5 days, and become extratropical around the time of passing near to Bermuda.

Even better yet, these storms are not likely to impact land, except Leslie could have effects on Bermuda. But, most likely by the time it reaches there, if it does, it would probably be a weak storm. We have two fishes to watch!
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#162 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:15 pm

Should be a Category 2 hurricane at the next advisory. Adjusted and Raw T#'s have jumped to T5.0/104 mph.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#163 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:06 pm

The eye is clearing which means RI starting?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#164 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:The eye is clearing which means RI starting?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


According to the NHC it's already going through RI... But it prob. just means that RI is continuing.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#165 Postby Fyzn94 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:23 pm

Maybe we'll see the "minor" hurricane streak finally end at this rate.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#166 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:59 pm

At this rate, Kirk could become a Category 4 hurricane, I would give it a 35% chance of doing so. This could end up being like Ophelia from last year - it wasn't anticipated to peak above 115 mph, but it somehow made it to 140 mph just east of Bermuda. If this makes it to Category 4 status without losing its compact and neat structure, it would be the smallest storm of its strength I have ever seen, since I started liking tropical cyclones on Thursday 1st June, 2011. Also, as I mentioned before, since Kirk is not a threat to land, I think we should just sit back and enjoy the view of one of the few storms of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far that remain out in the open water. In addition, Kirk brings us new surprises every 6 hours. :D

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#167 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:18 pm

Image

There Kirk goes! The eye is clearing out again, and is now completely clear on visible imagery. Rapid intensification is likely continuing, probably at an even faster rate now. Although the cloudtops are not very cold, take note of the well-defined and well-organized structure that continues to improve every 30 minutes. By the 00z best track update, Kirk may very well be a Category 2 hurricane.

In my opinion, should Kirk's wind speed surpass 110 mph, it would put Gordon in second place for the most impressive storm of the season, thus far.

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#168 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:21 pm

00z Best Track remains at 80kts.

AL, 11, 2012083100, , BEST, 0, 285N, 505W, 80, 982, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#169 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track remains at 80kts.

AL, 11, 2012083100, , BEST, 0, 285N, 505W, 80, 982, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


Thanks for the update. However, let's not forget how the NHC changed the intensity a few times from the BT over the past 24 hours. They're keeping us on our toes!
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#170 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:47 pm

Seems very odd that they'll leave it at 90 mph. If the strength is really at 90 mph, well that's the best looking 90 mph storm I've ever seen because this looks like it's at least 100 mph. The raw T#s, which were at 104 mph, seem a lot more correct, because as I said, a 90 mph storm will rarely ever be this well-defined and most importantly, have a clear and rounded eye like Kirk currently has. They will probably revise the best track update in half an hour or so, at least to show a pressure drop.

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#171 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:54 pm

You'd be surprised, the structure is looking more disorganized recently and convection remains weak; probably not enough to mix down heavier winds.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#172 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:13 pm

Image

Latest image of Kirk. :uarrow:

Hopefully, it mixes down those stronger winds soon, because 90 mph is a bit depressing for a storm with these good looks. Again, the eye has become larger and more rounded in the last hour. Looks like a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane to me.

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#173 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:21 pm

The cloud tops aren't super high, but they are consistent and the eye is embedded pretty deep. I'd easily think this was a solid Cat 2, working towards Cat 3. We shall see!
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#174 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:24 pm

Buck wrote:The cloud tops aren't super high, but they are consistent and the eye is embedded pretty deep. I'd easily think this was a solid Cat 2, working towards Cat 3. We shall see!


I totally agree with you, because Gordon also had problems with deep convection, yet he still managed to peak on the cusp of major hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#175 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:14 pm

Image

Latest picture: :uarrow:

We can't say that Kirk is a poorly organized storm! This is in line with Gordon for the most impressive looking storm of the season, thus far.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#176 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:46 pm

Kirk is cat 2.

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 50.7W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#177 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:51 pm

It would be interesting to be near this one either on the ocean or in the air, at least to be involved in a scientific study on small hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#178 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:43 am

The eye is filling up - not a good sign at all.
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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#179 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:19 am

Looks like it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle - could be the formation if an annular hurricane. :D

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Re: ATL: KIRK - Hurricane - Discussion

#180 Postby Fyzn94 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:21 pm

Alright....forget about a major hurricane, 'cause this sucker looks like he's falling apart!!! :x
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