EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

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Meow

EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:13 pm

Image

South of Mexico.
Last edited by Meow on Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#2 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:15 pm

Thanks meow.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208251855
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012082518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972012
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M a r k
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#3 Postby Meow » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:16 pm

NHC: 20%

Image

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 25 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:36 pm

I made a thread about this area last night, but nobody noticed it.
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#5 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 25, 2012 3:00 pm

I swear if this thing busts, I'm EPac season cancelling the next 3 years.
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Re:

#6 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I swear if this thing busts, I'm EPac season cancelling the next 3 years.


Yeah, too many poofs and busts this month. But don't give up for 3 years. Although there have been few storms for this month so far, let's see what September, October and November will bring! :)
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:38 pm

Great! 30%!
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#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:11 pm

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:53 am

Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#10 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:13 am

cycloneye wrote:Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


You mean stays at 30%. :lol:
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#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:10 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A BETTER A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#12 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:36 pm

Up to 60% now!

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:57 pm

:jump:
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#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 26, 2012 9:43 pm

For the sake of the ppl in the Revillagigedo islands, where the storm could threaten, calm down, especially given that this invest may busts like several other invests did earlier this year.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:06 am

I didn't know people lived in its path...if so, I would not have posted the symbol in my comment above.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:51 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I didn't know people lived in its path...if so, I would not have posted the symbol in my comment above.


well, to be more accurate, 300 ppl do,
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#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:52 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:02 pm

oh yes this will likely develop but unfortunately it may stay weak...according to euro, it will be another weak short lived tropical cyclone.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:20 pm

At least they show it becoming a hurricane. One of them on wunderground (the HWRF model) shows it nearing major hurricane status in 132 hours, the most aggressive forecast for this system.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:46 pm

While Issac does it's thing,there is a new TD in EPAC.

EP, 09, 2012082718, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1065W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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