EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

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#21 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:02 pm

I noticed that the best track file says NINE-E.
Have they been using the "-E" designation before in BT files because all other storms this year are simply referred to as "ONE" or "FIVE" for example?


TWO is at 90% by the way:

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THE CURRENT TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#22 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:12 pm

Looks reallly good.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE LOW IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...THOUGH SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST IT COULD
BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. AFTER DAY 4...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THAT SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF
ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
AND A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE
COULD REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING IT TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15...AND
KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.1N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 15.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 16.6N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 17.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 20.4N 113.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:14 pm

Hmm, track a little further west than I thought.
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#25 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:54 pm

Image

I'd assume it's a TS.
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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 6:51 pm

Yes, a TS may be forming.

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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:48 pm

00z Best Track up to TS at 40kts.

The name is Ileana.

EP, 09, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1072W, 40, 1000, TS
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:12 pm

Anyone here think Ileana will become a hurricane?
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:36 pm

WTPZ44 KNHC 280232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB RESPECTIVELY
AT 0000 UTC...AND 40 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
ILEANA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY ANY
RECENT CYCLONE ACTIVITY. THUS STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...
AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN
THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...BUT I WANTED TO KEEP SOME
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS.

THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 290/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING ILEANA TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
INITIALLY ON HOW ILEANA INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CYCLONE BREAKING FREE
FROM THE ITCZ AND HEADING NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS
LESS REALISTIC...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. A LEFTWARD BEND SHOULD OCCUR IN
A FEW DAYS TIME AS ILEANA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THE LONGER RANGE...AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM
TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.5N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.0N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 16.6N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 18.1N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re:

#30 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:37 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Anyone here think Ileana will become a hurricane?


NHC agrees with you.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby greenkat » Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:50 pm

Aletta's big sister :lol:
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:26 pm

Now this is how you do it *hint Isaac*. She looks pretty good on satellite. Hopefully it's a sign that the Epac will pick up again.
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#33 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 27, 2012 11:38 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:00 am

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0458 UTC METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO SHOWS THAT THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION RESIDES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
CLOUD CANOPY. THE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN
MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
STEER ILEANA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH DAY 4...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW ILEANA
DECREASING IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...
UKMET...AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD INITIATE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 15.5N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.2N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 17.8N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.6N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 19.9N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 21.2N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 22.3N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:46 am

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION IN A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM
WATERS AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER
THAT...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS ILEANA MOVES OVER LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. ILEANA IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
STEER ILEANA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS.
SINCE ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.0N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 16.5N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 19.0N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:08 pm

Any updates for the 18z best track, cycloneye?
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE OR MICROWAVE DATA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND
THERE ARE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE
STILL 45 KNOTS. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT BUT WILL BEGIN TO REACH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR ILEANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO AND THEN WEAKEN
GRADUALLY.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
WESTERN MEXICO. ILEANA COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...SINCE ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD TURN MORE TO
THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF
WHICH IS NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS/HWRF PAIR TO
THE SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.3N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 22.0N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:09 pm

Best track for 00z please?
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#39 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:21 pm

Deep convection is now consolidating over the center:
Image

May take off from here!
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#40 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:10 pm

EP, 09, 2012082900, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1108W, 45, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 40, 1006, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ILEANA, M,

Remains at 45kts.
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