EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:54 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:It is a hurricane! My bad. I'm tired.


I think everyone who was tracking Isaac is tired. :)
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Hurricane

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:50 pm

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE
IS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

ILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW
BY THAT TIME PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:56 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:It is a hurricane! My bad. I'm tired.


I think everyone who was tracking Isaac is tired. :)


I was not tracking Issac, but I am still tired and bored :P
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#64 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:00 am

The 18z GFS takes Ileana pretty close to southern California. By 120 hours it has a closed isobar at a very high latitude for the Epac. It merges with another low on SoCAL. If this were a category 5 hurricane right now instead, the GFS solution might have had a TD or TS hitting California :) .
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#65 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:47 am

12Z Best track up to 70 knots:

EP, 09, 2012083012, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1136W, 70, 983, HU
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#66 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:07 pm

Image

That's a weak Ileana tracking damn close to SoCal. If this thing can some how bomb it may have a chance!

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#67 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:12 pm

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#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:34 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302034
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED
BAND OF CONVECTION NOW WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER...AND A
RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A
CONSENSUS T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
ILEANA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER THAT
TIME. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ILEANA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS OVER
THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. THE GFS DEPICTS
A DEEPER TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE THAT RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW OF ILEANA TURNING
WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 20.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 21.1N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 21.9N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 22.8N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 23.4N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 24.3N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 25.5N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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#69 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:47 pm

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Cmon eye, CLEAR OUT.
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Re:

#70 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Cmon eye, CLEAR OUT.


Ileana resembles an annular hurricane slightly. Also, it shows the characteristics of some ePac storms - rounded and displaying a cloud-filled eye. So far, Ileana has been a good storm, becoming an 85 mph hurricane unexpectedly. :)
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:51 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Cmon eye, CLEAR OUT.


Ileana resembles an annular hurricane slightly. Also, it shows the characteristics of some ePac storms - rounded and displaying a cloud-filled eye. So far, Ileana has been a good storm, becoming an 85 mph hurricane unexpectedly. :)


It becoming 85 mph was hardly unexpected. As for it being a good storms, hurricane like this happen ALL TH TIME. Check HURDAT if you don't believe me.
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Re: Re:

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:01 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Cmon eye, CLEAR OUT.


Ileana resembles an annular hurricane slightly. Also, it shows the characteristics of some ePac storms - rounded and displaying a cloud-filled eye. So far, Ileana has been a good storm, becoming an 85 mph hurricane unexpectedly. :)


It becoming 85 mph was hardly unexpected. As for it being a good storms, hurricane like this happen ALL TH TIME. Check HURDAT if you don't believe me.


I think it is a good storm - if you think it is a 'much too common' storm, that is your opinion. For me, a storm just needs to attain hurricane strength for me to like it. So stop with the attitude, please. And furthermore, the forecast at 8 am PDT today was for it to weaken from 80 mph, NOT strengthen to 85 mph. So in a way, it is still unexpected. And if you don't believe me, look at the past advisories on the NHC page.

Also, for your information, I was speaking to Kingarabian, not you.
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#73 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:45 pm

Hurricanes1234 -just for a future reference, EPac hurricanes almost never follow the NHC forecasts.
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Re:

#74 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Hurricanes1234 -just for a future reference, EPac hurricanes almost never follow the NHC forecasts.


Even if they don't follow the forecasts, every storm is unique and deserves some form of recognition. We can't just blank the eastern Pacific out because the storms are not affecting land. A lot of people are doing just that, because 'it's far out to sea and not affecting anyone'.

You would not know how grateful I am to see a hurricane in this highly ignored basin - because a lot of people take them for granted. All they say is,"It's not a Category 5, so we're not bothering with it - it's a waste of time." or,"Ignore it - it is not affecting any landmasses." If I used to think that way about hurricanes, I would have never tracked a single one, because since I've started doing it, there haven't been any Category 5 storms. Yes, I would love to see a Category 5 that's not affecting anybody, but in my opinion, a storm is only an underachiever if it peaks below what the forecasts predicted, not if it doesn't become a Category 5. For example, Kirk is a strong Category 1 hurricane right now. Is it a Category 5 hurricane? No. But did it form out of a previously deteriorating area of low pressure? Yes. Is it a hurricane, which was not expected at all in the initial forecast? Yes. We cannot just throw the fish storms aside, or the storms below Category 5 status aside, because as I mentioned, every tropical cyclone, whether a Category 5 or not, needs recognition.
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Re: Re:

#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Hurricanes1234 -just for a future reference, EPac hurricanes almost never follow the NHC forecasts.


Even if they don't follow the forecasts, every storm is unique and deserves some form of recognition. We can't just blank the eastern Pacific out because the storms are not affecting land. A lot of people are doing just that, because 'it's far out to sea and not affecting anyone'.

You would not know how grateful I am to see a hurricane in this highly ignored basin - because a lot of people take them for granted. All they say is,"It's not a Category 5, so we're not bothering with it - it's a waste of time." or,"Ignore it - it is not affecting any landmasses." If I used to think that way about hurricanes, I would have never tracked a single one, because since I've started doing it, there haven't been any Category 5 storms. Yes, I would love to see a Category 5 that's not affecting anybody, but in my opinion, a storm is only an underachiever if it peaks below what the forecasts predicted, not if it doesn't become a Category 5. For example, Kirk is a strong Category 1 hurricane right now. Is it a Category 5 hurricane? No. But did it form out of a previously deteriorating area of low pressure? Yes. Is it a hurricane, which was not expected at all in the initial forecast? Yes. We cannot just throw the fish storms aside, or the storms below Category 5 status aside, because as I mentioned, every tropical cyclone, whether a Category 5 or not, needs recognition.


To be fair, I am a passionate supporter of the EPAC. This storm has a 4 pages of a discussion, so yes, it has recognition. Is it enough? No, IMO. I would be posting more, but I personally find this storm boring. As I've said, thousands of storms have been extremely similar to Ileana. FYI, If you don't think the EPAC get's enough attention (I think it gets less attention than it should), have you ever seen some of the threads of the SHEM. Otherwise, I agree with what you said.
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#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:52 pm

So far, the forecast adv is out

TPZ24 KNHC 310251
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.2W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 114.2W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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#77 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:56 pm

Okay, the pub adv is now out in case you can't access the NHC site (I can't on a school computer for example).

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 310253
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ILEANA CONTINUES AS A HURRICANE WEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 114.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE
SAME FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ILEANA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

UPDATE:Disco is now out, posting.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310254
TCDEP4

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

ILEANA HAS SPORADICALLY DISPLAYED A RAGGED EYE THIS EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVER PASS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT A 4.5 AND 4.0 CI NUMBER
RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY CURRENTLY AT 75
KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT 335/5 AS IT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF
CALIFORNIA WOULD ACT TO RECURVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD MEXICO OR THE
UNITED STATES IF THE CYCLONE RETAINED A DEEP STRUCTURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ILEANA SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND
FLOW. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE AS THE GFS...WHILE
STILL THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT ILEANA HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS RATHER HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE SOON TO BE EXPERIENCED. SO WHILE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WATER TEMPERATURE
COOLS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY IN ABOUT
A DAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED
BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 21.2N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 22.6N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 23.1N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 23.6N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:51 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF ILEANA IS ALREADY OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT
ILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND BECOME INVOLVED WITH STABLE AIR...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING.

ILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.
TRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL...WITH SOME MOVING ILEANA
NORTHWARD AND OTHERS KEEPING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. SINCE ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL TURN WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 21.8N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z 24.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: ILEANA - Hurricane

#79 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 8:33 am

To: Yellow Evan
I also understand what you stated in the last reply to me. However, as I already said, no two storms are alike. The people who genuinely want to track (not criticize) these storms will understand that. I think you are a genuine tracker, so you should be glad that Ileana became a hurricane to at least make August a little more active with 2 hurricanes, instead of one. IMO, no storm is boring, unless it achieves less than what the NHC thought it would. For example: Isaac was thought to become a 110 mph Category 2 in the Caribbean Sea, but it only peaked at 80 mph, leaving me to call it an underachiever. However, it was still interesting, because its pressure was way below what is expected of an 80 mph storm - in fact, it was 968 mbar, equivalent to a 105 mph Category 2. So, other than the disagreement of Ileana being boring, let us both agree that the eastern Pacific receives a lack of attention, especially when it comes to storms, like Ileana and Gilma, that remain far out to sea. :wink:
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Kingarabian
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#80 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:52 pm

Actually if Ileana continues to maintain her strength she may be picked up by that trough and smack right into the Baja.

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