ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:22 pm

This invest is for Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic.

FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208282320
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012082818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 280W, 20, 0, DB, 0, ,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113504&start=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:38 pm

8 PM TWO

Up to 30%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
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#3 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:44 pm

This is the one to watch going into next week. I think this CV invest has a very good shot of slipping under the ridge and traversing quite far to the west approaching the Eastern Caribbean in 7 days or so.

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#4 Postby Anthysteg00 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:00 pm

I agree, potential TD 12 appears to a serious player. What are early BAM suite model projections?
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#5 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:04 pm

Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.
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#6 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:32 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N26W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N29W 1010
MB. THE SYSTEM IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-34W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#7 Postby ouragans » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:48 pm

Did you notice the best track is at 18z?

Gustywind, that's what I was talking about the other day... to be monitored closely. This system killed more than 60 people in the last 7 days in Western Africa
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:00 pm

It will be very interesting to see the interaction that may occur between this system and TD11/Kirk.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:18 pm

Well...it's time to say goodbye to my most successful, most viewed and most populated thread yet...at least I would be able to look back at it every now and then.

Dear moderators,
Please don't delete that thread I made in the Talkin' Tropics forum about the precursor to 98L - I want to remember it by reading it every now and then.

Thanks!
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#10 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:22 pm

I do think there is a risk to the NE CAribbean from this, I remember the models orginally had Issac recurving where it currently has 98L going, so that really needs to be remembered...
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Re:

#11 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:26 pm

KWT wrote:Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.



South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L
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Re: Re:

#12 Postby fci » Wed Aug 29, 2012 12:28 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
KWT wrote:Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.



South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L


Yup, the ones that path north of Puerto Rico and are then trapped under the ridge.
We always need to watch these systems off of Africa and wait for them to take the recurve route like TD11/Kirk and many others.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#13 Postby colbroe » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:00 am

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#14 Postby colbroe » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:01 am

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N26W 16N29W...
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
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Re: Re:

#15 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:37 am

Bocadude85 wrote:South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L


Indeed, like I said with Issac I'm not totally convinced this is recurve material, but it is really going to depend on how strong Kirk ends up becoming, if it goes on to become a 2/3 type hurricane its hard to imagine this one not recurving through the gap unless it doesn't develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#16 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:48 am

ouragans wrote:Did you notice the best track is at 18z?

Gustywind, that's what I was talking about the other day... to be monitored closely. This system killed more than 60 people in the last 7 days in Western Africa

Yeah ouragans, that's something to monitor carefully during the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#17 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:52 am

cycloneye wrote:It will be very interesting to see the interaction that may occur between this system and TD11/Kirk.


That really is going to be of vital importance I feel. Typically the models have under-estimated the upper ridge for all systems that got past 50W, so if this one is still only weak at that time then I suspect another threat down the line will be likely. Kirk is the wildcard here though.
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#18 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:59 am

Hurricane Season

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

Aug 29, 2012 5:34 am ET


ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC

- There's another one in the pipeline after that In the eastern Atlantic. Latest model runs have it never reaching land, but it is too early to guarantee that.
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:03 am

From NRL weather site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... 100pc.html

20120829.1015.98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-119N-327W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:17 am

SSD Floater is up for 98L. Slowly organizing.

Image
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