ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#1001 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:14 pm

8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 41.1°N 58.5°W
Moving: NNE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

With 70 MPH winds and a 31 MPH forward speed, I don't think I'd want to be in front of it.
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#1002 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:14 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Becomes a hurricane again but I wonder if it will be the last advisory. Either way, Newfoundland will have to watch it.


It still looks tropical to me. Probably a ship or buoy reported winds of near 65 kt.

I dunno if a Hurricane Warning is warranted at this moment?
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#1003 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:17 pm

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1004 Postby Weatherguy173 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:03 pm

this is one FAST moving storm
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#1005 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:08 pm

Stays as a TS. Probably as they say due to the changing structure to extratropical.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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#1006 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:27 am

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR... TO TRITON


Kind of weird to see that.
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#1007 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:53 am

Buoy reports suggest the pressure is MUCH lower than Dvorak estimates.
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#1008 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:53 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR... TO TRITON


Kind of weird to see that.


It's not that uncommon, as Newfoundland is prime for recurves.
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#1009 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:02 am

St. John's: Sustained 59 mph (10-min I believe) gusting to 72 mph.
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#1010 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:01 am

Checking in as it makes landfall, what a funny looking ET cyclone we have! I say that as there are almost no signs that this is still tropical; the inner core is completely gone and is replaced with very dry air. There is no bottom to Leslie as well. The thing that still gets me is how the NHC continued to show Leslie re-strengthening into a hurricane...four-five days ago it was clear that wasn't going to happen. I didn't make an official prediction on here but I knew Leslie was too large (that eye was enormous, no eyewall present) and disorganized to ever recover...especially ones moving north into colder waters. The forecast kept lowering from CAT2 down; too much LGEM lovin' :lol: - The LGEM didn't know TS Leslie's structure to determine why it wouldn't become a hurricane again. That last minute 10 knot strengthening was probably baroclinicaly enhanced so its not "genuine" per se. So overall I'm happy I stopped following this 9 days ago, what an embarrassment.

If I were to rate Leslie from 1 to 10 I would give it a -3.
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#1011 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:11 am

Cyclenall wrote:Checking in as it makes landfall, what a funny looking ET cyclone we have! I say that as there are almost no signs that this is still tropical; the inner core is completely gone and is replaced with very dry air. There is no bottom to Leslie as well. The thing that still gets me is how the NHC continued to show Leslie re-strengthening into a hurricane...four-five days ago it was clear that wasn't going to happen. I didn't make an official prediction on here but I knew Leslie was too large (that eye was enormous, no eyewall present) and disorganized to ever recover...especially ones moving north into colder waters. The forecast kept lowering from CAT2 down; too much LGEM lovin' :lol: - The LGEM didn't know TS Leslie's structure to determine why it wouldn't become a hurricane again. That last minute 10 knot strengthening was probably baroclinicaly enhanced so its not "genuine" per se. So overall I'm happy I stopped following this 9 days ago, what an embarrassment.

If I were to rate Leslie from 1 to 10 I would give it a -3.


Looking at surface data, it does appear borderline (on temperature distribution) on whether Leslie was indeed warm core at landfall. Structurally, I would call it extratropical since about 0600Z.
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#1012 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:14 am

AL, 12, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 477N, 551W, 60, 968, PT

Indeed, extratropical before landfall it appears.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1013 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:18 am

Looks like an occluded frontal low now. And Michael is just a low-level swirl. Meanwhile, future "Nadine" struggles in the MDR.
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#1014 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 3:18 pm

Agreed, you think just the same about these storms as I do. Seriously, Leslie was and still is a very boring and underachieving storm to watch, sorry to say. I still have no idea why the forecasts predicted a Category 2 hurricane, to me, it was clear that Leslie just couldn't get it's act together in any way. Most of the discussions stated either that Leslie never had a good and solid inner core, that it was being choked by "dry air", that it was asymmetric, that it was simply too large and disorganized to strengthen, or that wind shear was affecting it. Looks like another name is off the list.
Now, don't mistake what I said, it is excellent that it remained weak, for the sake of the people in Newfoundland, what I am saying is that Leslie wasted its time over very warm waters and it began to give way to the so-called unfavorable conditions.
On a scale of 1-100, I would give Leslie "15", only because it managed to become a hurricane. :roll:
Cyclenall wrote:Checking in as it makes landfall, what a funny looking ET cyclone we have! I say that as there are almost no signs that this is still tropical; the inner core is completely gone and is replaced with very dry air. There is no bottom to Leslie as well. The thing that still gets me is how the NHC continued to show Leslie re-strengthening into a hurricane...four-five days ago it was clear that wasn't going to happen. I didn't make an official prediction on here but I knew Leslie was too large (that eye was enormous, no eyewall present) and disorganized to ever recover...especially ones moving north into colder waters. The forecast kept lowering from CAT2 down; too much LGEM lovin' :lol: - The LGEM didn't know TS Leslie's structure to determine why it wouldn't become a hurricane again. That last minute 10 knot strengthening was probably baroclinicaly enhanced so its not "genuine" per se. So overall I'm happy I stopped following this 9 days ago, what an embarrassment.

If I were to rate Leslie from 1 to 10 I would give it a -3.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1015 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:30 pm

Awwww, poor Leslie. I liked her, and I thought she was interesting. :)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1016 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:57 pm

Well, if that's your opinion, you're totally free to have it. Looking back at Wikipedia's page about it, she was not so bad after all, and I again admit that my post was a bit harsh. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1017 Postby greenkat » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:08 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Awwww, poor Leslie. I liked her, and I thought she was interesting. :)


But not in "that" way. :lol: :roll:
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