ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.

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Right now it doesn't look like anything will be in the islands as the models show this is recurving up and out to sea before the islands. That does not mean they will be correct, you'll have to take the chance. This far out we really have no solid idea yet.

True, but IF it did hit the caribbean, when would it do so? Would it be over Labor Day weekend, or later next week?

According to the GFS it will be nearing the islands in about 4 to 5 days. I think if this is a cruise they will be paying attention and you'll be kept safe. In the end, it's up to you to make the decision.

[KWT]

What people should remember is the models nearly all recurved Issac around 50-60W, and look how far west that one ended up. I doubt this one goes nearly as far west but it doesn't have to go that far west to cause real issues ot land...

[Caesarp]

According to the GFS it will be nearing the islands in about 4 to 5 days. I think if this is a cruise they will be paying attention and you'll be kept safe. In the end, it's up to you to make the decision.

Actually the decision will be my wife's! Also, this is not a cruise (I hate cruises). I fly out of Philadelphia at 6:00 AM tomorrow and arrive in St. Kitts (after a stop in Miami) by 2:00 PM. I then take a boat to Nevis from St. Kitts, and will be in Nevis till Tuesday, Sept. 4th. So this one worries me -- even if it recurves, it may be large enough to mess up the weather and make it cloudy in Nevis.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

[mascpa]

Leaving on a cruise out of Ft. Lauderdale on Sept. 8th. Still a long way away but I'm hoping there are no serious tropical threats by then as the models would seem to indicate.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FOUND TO THE SE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ASSOCIATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSED BELOW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS 24 HOUR AGO.
WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2012082918, , BEST, 0, 133N, 376W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Latest with approx center:

[ROCK]

still has a lot of SAL to the north, stable air in front...still a ways away IMO....

[HurricaneAndrew92]

still has a lot of SAL to the north, stable air in front...still a ways away IMO....

We do have a lot of time to watch this system...if it is to threaten the islands, likely 4-5 days away.

[KWT]

Hmm that image shows very nicely that Kirk has already induced a weakness in the flow, you can see the inflow from Kirk to the NW of 98L. If Kirk strengthens too much that could cause issues for this one in the short term.

[Caesarp]

still has a lot of SAL to the north, stable air in front...still a ways away IMO....

We do have a lot of time to watch this system...if it is to threaten the islands, likely 4-5 days away.

Is it me, or does the latest satellite images finally show some northward, as opposed to just westward movement?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

still has a lot of SAL to the north, stable air in front...still a ways away IMO....

We do have a lot of time to watch this system...if it is to threaten the islands, likely 4-5 days away.

Is it me, or does the latest satellite images finally show some northward, as opposed to just westward movement?

WNW at most, but the last few frames are still at about 270.

[KWT]

Looks quite close to west to me, but it may well soon get tugged more to the WNW due to drawing closer to Kirk's longitude, and as Kirk looks stronger than expected at this stage and IMO has a good shot becoming a 2/3 hurricane, I think if that were to happen it'd be hard for 98L now to scooped up.

[Meteorcane]

This thing has some very good sfc convergence, although it is a little broad at the moment especially compared to Kirk. Shear looks to be low, however, there is some SAL ahead of it, however it already appears to have a good moisture envelope, which should protect it somewhat. It also has pretty little spin at this point, however, that its low latitude is probably the culprit at this point, as if it keeps up that convergence/UL venting it should spin up more.

Although the models do indicate a large weakness which should recurve it east of the islands, the models also depict a deep system, and thus far the tropical Atlantic has not been favorable for development. Although I do think this one may pick up some latitude pretty quickly if it were to deepen. Also Kirk's fate could influence the track/intensity of this system I think the strength/speed of Kirk would have a significant effect on 98L a strong Kirk could guide this thing farther west (although the Bermuda High looks very weak in future model runs) possibly threatening the Windward Islands.

Also most of the models keep Kirk weak, which would both strengthen this system (no competition with Kirk) and move it further east (no ridge development/deeper system).

[VeniceInlet]

According to the GFS it will be nearing the islands in about 4 to 5 days. I think if this is a cruise they will be paying attention and you'll be kept safe. In the end, it's up to you to make the decision.

Actually the decision will be my wife's! Also, this is not a cruise (I hate cruises). I fly out of Philadelphia at 6:00 AM tomorrow and arrive in St. Kitts (after a stop in Miami) by 2:00 PM. I then take a boat to Nevis from St. Kitts, and will be in Nevis till Tuesday, Sept. 4th. So this one worries me -- even if it recurves, it may be large enough to mess up the weather and make it cloudy in Nevis.

I don't know if you have thought of this already, but I would recommend buying vacation insurance. It is inexpensive and will cover you in case your trip is ruined due to a hurricane. Just google trip insurance and vacation insurance and you will find some insurers who can help you.

[cycloneye]

The 850mb vorticity continues to increase.

[Caesarp]

According to the GFS it will be nearing the islands in about 4 to 5 days. I think if this is a cruise they will be paying attention and you'll be kept safe. In the end, it's up to you to make the decision.

Actually the decision will be my wife's! Also, this is not a cruise (I hate cruises). I fly out of Philadelphia at 6:00 AM tomorrow and arrive in St. Kitts (after a stop in Miami) by 2:00 PM. I then take a boat to Nevis from St. Kitts, and will be in Nevis till Tuesday, Sept. 4th. So this one worries me -- even if it recurves, it may be large enough to mess up the weather and make it cloudy in Nevis.

I don't know if you have thought of this already, but I would recommend buying vacation insurance. It is inexpensive and will cover you in case your trip is ruined due to a hurricane. Just google trip insurance and vacation insurance and you will find some insurers who can help you.

I have it and in fact have "cancel for any reason insurance". However most people don't realize that vacation insurance generally only covers an actual emergency declared, official evacuation, airlines cancel, etc. You can't just say I watched the forecast models and I'm leaving and get your money back. While "cancel any reason" allows you to cancel no matter what, you have to cancel before 48 hours of your departure (which is too late for me now). So most such insurance is good only IF an actual event occurs. And by then, it may be too late to avoid the major hassles. My preference is to avoid sleeping in an airport or being evacuated to a shelter in a caribbean island with limited facilities (even if later I may get some money back).

So while insurance sounds good, the insurance companies have many outs and people need to read the policies carefully. I read insurance policies for a living and know that vacation insurance is mainly a scam.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Looks close to a TD on wundergrounds Infared satellite.

[Blown Away]

Just like previous invests at this latitude, 98L is moving pretty fast at 15-20 mph and likely will develop slowly. Remember a day or so ago the models brought 98L into the GOM similar to Isaac's track.