ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

98 has really come toether in the last few hours.


Bears watch IMO.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 37.6W TO 15.1N 45.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 37.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSEIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. AT 291830Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 301900Z.//

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wouldn't be surprised if this eventually becomes a powerful hurricane. It has an favorable environment for a change.

[cycloneye]

Still moving Westward at a good clip while it continues to organize.

[ROCK]

^ 6 hours ago I didnt think it would crank up for some time....now not to sure....It did not waste anytime...sheesh.....conditions must be improving across the basin...looks good with convection right over the center and banding taken hold...

[Meteorcane]

Starting to a see a little more turning as it is able to overcome its low latitude with sufficient lower convergence and upper divergence. Trades still appear to be strong, which has created shear over the MDR systems so far this season, so we'll see if this struggles with that as well.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's nothing I'd like to see more in 2012 than a Cat 4/5 Buzzsaw hurricane spinning out to sea...Been awhile since we've seen one of those...That would be awesome watch to develop without the worry of it killing and destroyoing....

[hurricanes1234]

Convection wrapping up nicely around the center - this could really become the first major hurricane of the season, considering the forecasted path takes it into or very near that large pocket of steaming SSTs (steaming for a tropical cyclone, of course) ENE of the Bahamas. Also, wind shear is low enough and the environment will be most likely be moistened up by this system when it approaches drier air.
It's getting closer to the peak of the season, when storms are more likely to curve out to sea, thus allowing them to soak up more moisture.

But wait, if the one of the posts above says "Tropical Storm Formation Alert", are they trying to say that this one could skip TD status and jump to TS Leslie? Wow, this season is absolutely full of surprises!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meteorcane]

There's nothing I'd like to see more in 2012 than a Cat 4/5 Buzzsaw hurricane spinning out to sea...Been awhile since we've seen one of those...That would be awesome watch to develop without the worry of it killing and destroyoing....

Katia?

[ConvergenceZone]

There's nothing I'd like to see more in 2012 than a Cat 4/5 Buzzsaw hurricane spinning out to sea...Been awhile since we've seen one of those...That would be awesome watch to develop without the worry of it killing and destroyoing....

Katia?

I just want the classic buzzsaw shape. I"m picky...

[Meteorcane]

There's nothing I'd like to see more in 2012 than a Cat 4/5 Buzzsaw hurricane spinning out to sea...Been awhile since we've seen one of those...That would be awesome watch to develop without the worry of it killing and destroyoing....

Katia?

I just want the classic buzzsaw shape. I"m picky...

I know what you mean I want a nice annular fish hurricane.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

But wait, if the one of the posts above says "Tropical Storm Formation Alert", are they trying to say that this one could skip TD status and jump to TS Leslie? Wow, this season is absolutely full of surprises!

No, I am pretty sure it means it is an alert for tropical formation. In other words, a numbered tropical depression.

[hurricanes1234]

Something's wrong with the satellite for some of the storms - the photos are intermittently being updated every hour instead of every 30 minutes. Anybody noticed this as well?

[KWT]

Yep still heading westwards, but I do think it'll gain latitude soon judging by the loops I've seen, like WV.

Looking good right now, unless something happens this should be TD12 tomorrow IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

Yep still heading westwards, but I do think it'll gain latitude soon judging by the loops I've seen, like WV.

Looking good right now, unless something happens this should be TD12 tomorrow IMO.

What does IMO mean? In the morning?

[cycloneye]

Yep still heading westwards, but I do think it'll gain latitude soon judging by the loops I've seen, like WV.

Looking good right now, unless something happens this should be TD12 tomorrow IMO.

What does IMO mean? In the morning?

That means "In my opinion".

[hurricanes1234]

Yep still heading westwards, but I do think it'll gain latitude soon judging by the loops I've seen, like WV.

Looking good right now, unless something happens this should be TD12 tomorrow IMO.

What does IMO mean? In the morning?

That means "In my opinion".

Thanks!

[SouthDadeFish]

A Windsat pass this afternoon shows for the most part, a lack of spiral banding. I sort of see some on the north side:

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think tomorrow is the day....Question is, will the models adjust westward, or stay locked into their currect prediction? Still westward bound based upon the Sat pic loop....

Even though the odds of a recurve are extremely high due to past historical storms formed this far out, you never know when something strange can happen and put the islands in danger. ....