ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[garbeat]

I am in newfoundland and am a bit wary of this one given the extremely warm summer we have had and how that may have impacted water temperatures... have no idea how this one compares in behaviour or potential track to Igor, but that was just devastating to some parts of the province. I am in st John's, but have a cabin on Random Island.. and the island was literally destroyed by Igor, some people have said that a university research weather station on Random Island recorded over 300mm of rain with Igor.

[Time_Zone]

Well I was living in Halifax when we were struck by Juan. That was the craziest weather experince I ever witnessed. The water is warmer this year than usual ,today's Ingonish Beach sea temperature is 17.4 °C. I imagine sydney harbour to be warmer yet.[/quote]

Yea, warmer then normal but still pretty cool! The good thing about Juan is that he was a very small storm so he didn't do anything up this far at all really.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am in newfoundland and am a bit wary of this one given the extremely warm summer we have had and how that may have impacted water temperatures... have no idea how this one compares in behaviour or potential track to Igor, but that was just devastating to some parts of the province. I am in st John's, but have a cabin on Random Island.. and the island was literally destroyed by Igor, some people have said that a university research weather station on Random Island recorded over 300mm of rain with Igor.

Igor was indeed a monster, I have the picture book what a mess it caused in your fair province. Leslie is a big girl, and she should expand even more (or so says the NHC, so I'm sold), so she could be Igor like in size otherwise everything is up in the air as far as Igor 2010 v. Leslie 2012.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

I'm also in Cape Breton, im used to these types of "scares" at least a couple times a year...they usually never turn out though so i'm not worried in the slightest right now.

Thankfully the water is so cold up here that it won't be able to support a major! Expecting this to be a cat-1 or less by time it makes its way this far north.

Uh, the waters near there are much warmer than normal right now. If the upper level conditions are perfect I could imagine a strong category 2 hurricane landfall would be possible. Leslie might be too large for that but theoretically speaking.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I was living in Halifax when we were struck by Juan. That was the craziest weather experince I ever witnessed. The water is warmer this year than usual ,today's Ingonish Beach sea temperature is 17.4 °C. I imagine sydney harbour to be warmer yet.

Yea, warmer then normal but still pretty cool! The good thing about Juan is that he was a very small storm so he didn't do anything up this far at all really.[/quote]

Or anything in New Brunswick, other than a bit of light rain the next day, Juan's destruction was confined mainly to central Nova Scotia & eastern PEI. With an average sized, or dare I say above average sized, system of similar power things could have been much worse for the Maritimes.

[Cape Bretoner]

Well I was living in Halifax when we were struck by Juan. That was the craziest weather experince I ever witnessed. The water is warmer this year than usual ,today's Ingonish Beach sea temperature is 17.4 °C. I imagine sydney harbour to be warmer yet.

Yea, warmer then normal but still pretty cool! The good thing about Juan is that he was a very small storm so he didn't do anything up this far at all really.[/quote]


No, you're right about that but it was sheer madness in greater Halifax with casualties. Now this big son of a gun is a different story I know, but it could wreak havoc on a larger area of land. This storm just does not sit right with me. In any case I hope you're right.

[Cape Bretoner]

Well I was living in Halifax when we were struck by Juan. That was the craziest weather experince I ever witnessed. The water is warmer this year than usual ,today's Ingonish Beach sea temperature is 17.4 °C. I imagine sydney harbour to be warmer yet.

Yea, warmer then normal but still pretty cool! The good thing about Juan is that he was a very small storm so he didn't do anything up this far at all really.

Or anything in New Brunswick, other than a bit of light rain the next day, Juan's destruction was confined mainly to central Nova Scotia & eastern PEI. With an average sized, or dare I say above average sized, system of similar power things could have been much worse for the Maritimes. [/quote]

You got that right!

[bermudashorts]

Bermuda Weather Service says Leslie could be a historic storm for Bermuda. Preparations are well underway here - trouble is on an Island only 20miles long and 1 mile wide there's really nowhere to run!! Currently unable to get a room at any of the safe hotels - will try again first thing in the morning and hope they have had some cancellations (our house is right on the shore so not a good place to be)

http://bernews.com/2012/09/emo-on-hurri ... eway-more/

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 65kts.

AL, 12, 2012090600, , BEST, 0, 261N, 625W, 65, 985, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[CrazyC83]

20120905 2345 25.8 62.3 T4.0/4.0 12L LESLIE

[weatherSnoop]

20120905 2345 25.8 62.3 T4.0/4.0 12L LESLIE

Perhaps an upgrade at 11 est.

[cycloneye]

20120905 2345 25.8 62.3 T4.0/4.0 12L LESLIE

Perhaps an upgrade at 11 est.

Leslie has been a hurricane since 2 PM.

[weatherSnoop]

20120905 2345 25.8 62.3 T4.0/4.0 12L LESLIE

Perhaps an upgrade at 11 est.

Leslie has been a hurricane since 2 PM.

sorry for wrong wording...increased status

[cycloneye]

sorry for wrong wording...increased status

Oh ok. It seems that it will remain at 65kts for the next advisory.

[brunota2003]

For those who track him, Mark Sudduth is going to Bermuda to set up one of his wind towers, and camera system. It will be his first ever international intercept.

[TYNI]

Well, I'm afraid this bad boy is gonna fly directly over Cape Breton Island!

I would monitor it over the week into the weekend. Plenty of time to prep. Too far out at the moment, and too many variables. What side of the island are you on?

I live in Sydney which is on the eastern side.

I grew up in Port Hood, on the western side. I still remember many bad storms in the fall, and heavy winds called "Les Suetes" but don't remember any hurricanes.

East side could be at risk.

[stormhunter7]

So a global Hawk from NASA could be checking out Leslie tmrw evening! Aircraft will be in transit from west coast to east coast home for the HS3 Research Project. Trying to find the planned fight path and more information.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012WFF: All times EDT

Thursday 9/6
Transit
1400 PI representative should be in the PMOF
1500 Estimated take off time
Current plan is to fly Tropical Storm Leslie and collect data during the transit

Friday 9/7
0945 Estimated landing time
1400 Estimated aircraft access (until 1600)

[SootyTern]

Bermuda Weather Service says Leslie could be a historic storm for Bermuda. Preparations are well underway here - trouble is on an Island only 20miles long and 1 mile wide there's really nowhere to run!! Currently unable to get a room at any of the safe hotels - will try again first thing in the morning and hope they have had some cancellations (our house is right on the shore so not a good place to be)

http://bernews.com/2012/09/emo-on-hurri ... eway-more/

Any friends off the immediate shoreline you can stay with if a hotel room does not materialize? I've never been to Bermuda so I don't know what it's like there during storms but I imagine y'all have a preparedness level similar to South Florida. Still a direct hit from a 2 or 3 is going to sting a little...

[Time_Zone]

Leslie isn't looking too hot ATM.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Bermuda Weather Service says Leslie could be a historic storm for Bermuda. Preparations are well underway here - trouble is on an Island only 20miles long and 1 mile wide there's really nowhere to run!! Currently unable to get a room at any of the safe hotels - will try again first thing in the morning and hope they have had some cancellations (our house is right on the shore so not a good place to be)

http://bernews.com/2012/09/emo-on-hurri ... eway-more/

Good luck, and try to stay safe. Having gone through Andrew in South Florida back in 1992 (a story long time board members know & I certainly hope Leslie is norwhere near that strong), I know first hand what a nightmare these storms can be. My thoughts, and prayers, and with you and your loved ones.