ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#21 Postby ouragans » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:46 am

up to 50%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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#22 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:19 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W...FROM 20N TO A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N33W. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS 24 HOUR AGO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 39W.
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#23 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:51 am

If it gets going this far east, its going to be very unlikely this gets far enough west to be a real threat but you never quite know.

Looking good right now though!
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#24 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:02 am

It is still at a fairly low latitude, so who knows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#25 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:15 am

got stable air around it, being sheared some. Might take awhile before it gets going...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#26 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:28 am

Models are predicting one of those crazy tracks where it bolts right and into the Atlantic.
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#27 Postby bonjourno » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:38 am

BAMS/BAMM don't so much look like a re-"curve" as much as a sudden 90 degree turn right at about 59W :lol:
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#28 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:51 am

I'm not sold on the recurve. If you look at the Storm2k.com home page you can tell that 98L is quite a bit further south from where Kirk was....I think others have said it well. If it stays weak, then it should continue westbound....
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#29 Postby bonjourno » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:53 am

Well to my untrained eye, the models plotting the recurves just seemed way too jarring and sudden changes of direction to be realistic. We shall see, still very early.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#30 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:42 am

My concern with this one is I'm leaving on a cruise on Sunday and will be in the St. Thomas/St.Marteen area Wed/Thur of next week.. which is eerily close to where 98L would be by then...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#31 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:03 am

Check the Unisys archive. There have been plenty of hard-right tracks in the Central Atlantic in the past.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L

#32 Postby Caesarp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:17 am

"my concern with this one is I'm leaving on a cruise on Sunday and will be in the St. Thomas/St.Marteen area Wed/Thur of next week.. which is eerily close to where 98L would be by then..."

Is this true? I thought it is supposed to be in the northern leeward Islands (St. Thomas, etc.) by this Sunday, Labor Day weekend?

I need to know PRONTO because I'm leaving tomorrow for St. Kitts/Nevis and plan to be there till Tuesday. I'm debating whether to throw away $3,000 and cancel the trip, or risk being stuck on a tiny island with no major airport.

So WHEN is 98L expected to reach the caribbean islands (if it does reach them)? Is it this Sunday, or not until next Wednesday? If next Wednesday, I'm fine. If before then, I could be screwed.

Someone please let me know this ASAP! Thanks.
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#33 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:42 am

Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#34 Postby Caesarp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:43 am

Jevo wrote:Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go

Image


So where is the Flemish Cap in relation to the caribbean leeward islands?
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Re: Re:

#35 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:44 am

Caesarp wrote:
Jevo wrote:Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go

Image


So where is the Flemish Cap in relation to the caribbean leeward islands?


Heh I goofed on the linkage.. you can see the loc now.. I fixed the link :uarrow:
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Re: Re:

#36 Postby Caesarp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:47 am

Jevo wrote:
Caesarp wrote:
Jevo wrote:Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go

Image


So where is the Flemish Cap in relation to the caribbean leeward islands?


Heh I goofed on the linkage.. you can see the loc now.. I fixed the link :uarrow:


I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.
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Re: Re:

#37 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:55 am

I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.[/quote]

The big red/orange dot you see up top is future 98L (as per the 12z GFS). According to that run, youd be fine. But keep in mind things can change.
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Re: Re:

#38 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:55 am

Caesarp wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.


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Right now it doesn't look like anything will be in the islands as the models show this is recurving up and out to sea before the islands. That does not mean they will be correct, you'll have to take the chance. This far out we really have no solid idea yet.
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Re: Re:

#39 Postby Caesarp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:56 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.


The big red/orange dot you see up top is future 98L (as per the 12z GFS). According to that run, youd be fine. But keep in mind things can change.[/quote]

Okay, but where is that big red dot expected to be on August 30th through Sept. 3rd?
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Re: Re:

#40 Postby Caesarp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:57 am

tolakram wrote:
Caesarp wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.


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Right now it doesn't look like anything will be in the islands as the models show this is recurving up and out to sea before the islands. That does not mean they will be correct, you'll have to take the chance. This far out we really have no solid idea yet.


True, but IF it did hit the caribbean, when would it do so? Would it be over Labor Day weekend, or later next week?
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