ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 464
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
up to 50%
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
0 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is just a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris '95, Luis '95, Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291200
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W...FROM 20N TO A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N33W. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS 24 HOUR AGO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 39W.
AXNT20 KNHC 291200
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W...FROM 20N TO A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N33W. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO
OBSERVATIONS 24 HOUR AGO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 27W AND 39W.
0 likes
If it gets going this far east, its going to be very unlikely this gets far enough west to be a real threat but you never quite know.
Looking good right now though!
Looking good right now though!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 519
- Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
- Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)
It is still at a fairly low latitude, so who knows.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
got stable air around it, being sheared some. Might take awhile before it gets going...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
Models are predicting one of those crazy tracks where it bolts right and into the Atlantic.
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 4833
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
My concern with this one is I'm leaving on a cruise on Sunday and will be in the St. Thomas/St.Marteen area Wed/Thur of next week.. which is eerily close to where 98L would be by then...
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
Check the Unisys archive. There have been plenty of hard-right tracks in the Central Atlantic in the past.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
"my concern with this one is I'm leaving on a cruise on Sunday and will be in the St. Thomas/St.Marteen area Wed/Thur of next week.. which is eerily close to where 98L would be by then..."
Is this true? I thought it is supposed to be in the northern leeward Islands (St. Thomas, etc.) by this Sunday, Labor Day weekend?
I need to know PRONTO because I'm leaving tomorrow for St. Kitts/Nevis and plan to be there till Tuesday. I'm debating whether to throw away $3,000 and cancel the trip, or risk being stuck on a tiny island with no major airport.
So WHEN is 98L expected to reach the caribbean islands (if it does reach them)? Is it this Sunday, or not until next Wednesday? If next Wednesday, I'm fine. If before then, I could be screwed.
Someone please let me know this ASAP! Thanks.
Is this true? I thought it is supposed to be in the northern leeward Islands (St. Thomas, etc.) by this Sunday, Labor Day weekend?
I need to know PRONTO because I'm leaving tomorrow for St. Kitts/Nevis and plan to be there till Tuesday. I'm debating whether to throw away $3,000 and cancel the trip, or risk being stuck on a tiny island with no major airport.
So WHEN is 98L expected to reach the caribbean islands (if it does reach them)? Is it this Sunday, or not until next Wednesday? If next Wednesday, I'm fine. If before then, I could be screwed.
Someone please let me know this ASAP! Thanks.
0 likes
- Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go
Last edited by Jevo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
- Jevo
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1729
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
- Location: The Flemish Cap
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Caesarp wrote:Jevo wrote:Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go
So where is the Flemish Cap in relation to the caribbean leeward islands?
Heh I goofed on the linkage.. you can see the loc now.. I fixed the link
0 likes
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: Re:
Jevo wrote:Caesarp wrote:Jevo wrote:Still a long way out... But the 12z GFS takes 98L right into the Flemish Cap... because that's where the fish go
So where is the Flemish Cap in relation to the caribbean leeward islands?
Heh I goofed on the linkage.. you can see the loc now.. I fixed the link
I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 519
- Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
- Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)
Re: Re:
I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.[/quote]
The big red/orange dot you see up top is future 98L (as per the 12z GFS). According to that run, youd be fine. But keep in mind things can change.
The big red/orange dot you see up top is future 98L (as per the 12z GFS). According to that run, youd be fine. But keep in mind things can change.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19138
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Re:
Caesarp wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Right now it doesn't look like anything will be in the islands as the models show this is recurving up and out to sea before the islands. That does not mean they will be correct, you'll have to take the chance. This far out we really have no solid idea yet.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.
The big red/orange dot you see up top is future 98L (as per the 12z GFS). According to that run, youd be fine. But keep in mind things can change.[/quote]
Okay, but where is that big red dot expected to be on August 30th through Sept. 3rd?
0 likes
Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:Caesarp wrote:I can't read that map anyway. I'm still clueless.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Right now it doesn't look like anything will be in the islands as the models show this is recurving up and out to sea before the islands. That does not mean they will be correct, you'll have to take the chance. This far out we really have no solid idea yet.
True, but IF it did hit the caribbean, when would it do so? Would it be over Labor Day weekend, or later next week?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests