ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see what track it takes in terms of the Northern Leewards being affected or not. Certainly an Earl type track is the worse scenario.

[ConvergenceZone]

Would that be a worse case scenerio though Luis? I would think a worse case would be something that hit the islands and then road up the eastern seaboard....

[cycloneye]

Would that be a worse case scenerio though Luis? I would think a worse case would be something that hit the islands and then road up the eastern seaboard....

I was only thinking about the islands. About the East Coast/Bermuda,that is another thing.

[KWT]

I'm a little surprised they didn't go upto 80% with this system, it looks like its well on its way. Then again the Microwave suggests the lower flow isn't quite there yet (where have we heard that before this season...hmmm....)

[mulaman984]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

[Florida1118]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

Waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy too far out to know at this point. It appears to be going out to sea/Bermuda at this point, however things do change. Just have to keep an eye on where it is going over the course of its life.

[ConvergenceZone]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

The actual chances are probably slam, BUT stay tuned, because anything is possible....

[Gustywind]

30/0000 UTC 14.0N 39.3W T1.5/1.5 98L

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

IMO low, looking at the current model trends, if this system is going to effect anywhere it'd likely be Bermuda or maybe New England/the Maritimes down the road.

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[thatwhichisnt]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

The actual chances are probably slam, BUT stay tuned, because anything is possible....

Yep, his big brother proved that the past 48 hours.

[Blown Away]

what are the chances this ends up in the GOM and affects Western FL?

Still way to far out in the Atlantic, but 2 days ago the GFS had 98L into the GOM.

[mulaman984]

only reason I ask (GOM/Florida) is because this looks like similar Isaac progression....models indicating turn (yet some all over the place)...tho this system is a lot further W then when Isaac generated

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking very good tonight with a healthy burst of convection firing:

[OuterBanker]

Leslie to be tonight looks better than Isaac did in the Gulf.

[floridasun78]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

[ConvergenceZone]

it look like nhc think going to be fish their no flight plan to go 98l their did by now for Isaac in same area

If I were to guess, I would say that the first forecast will show it as a Fish, but forecasts down the line could shift west depending upon how quickly it stregthens.....

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'll watch this one because if it takes a more westward turn than Earl, it'll hit me. Doubtful, but they said Ernesto would hit the east coast early on so you never know.

[thatwhichisnt]

I hope this isn't Isaac's "Rita".

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Its 00Z Best track still isn't out...perhaps we are getting a renumber?

[hurricanes1234]

Looks good enough for TD 12/TS Leslie to me.