ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#921 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:02 pm

The 11 PM track.

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#922 Postby bonjourno » Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:06 pm

Hopefully this stays further east and doesn't directly hit Bermuda. The wind field on the west side of the storm isn't as impressive. Wouldn't be all sunshine and roses, but probably a bit better than nothing.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#923 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:21 pm

Is there any chance with Leslie's large size and Michael's small size that we could possibly see a Fujiwara effect of these two systems?
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#924 Postby bonjourno » Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:43 pm

Leslie kinda doing a weird yin-yang looking thing at the moment :lol:
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#925 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:17 am

Things are looking a bit brighter for Bermuda right now....a near miss on the western side sure beats a direct hit or getting caught in the NE quadrant of the storm.
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#926 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:53 am

great news for bermuda.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#927 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:30 am

I am still going to stick with my track, though it may be further east later today.

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#928 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:22 am

looks like leslie is being hit hard now by its own upwelling.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#929 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:44 am

12z Best Track remains at 65kts.

AL, 12, 2012090612, , BEST, 0, 263N, 624W, 65, 985, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#930 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:02 am

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060850
TCDAT2

HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE REMAINS RAGGED...WITH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESLIE.
IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF MOTION IS RESULTING IN SOME COOLING OF THE
SEA SURFACE NEAR THE CYCLONE...AS EVIDENCED BY A 1C SST DECREASE IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS AT NOAA BUOY 41049. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
65 KT BASED ON THE LASTEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR...AND
UPWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
LESLIE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LESLIE HAS HARDLY MOVED OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 360/01 AS THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND THE TREND OF
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF LESLIE
EARLY ON AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND/OR LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS ON THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS THE TROUGH MISSING
LESLIE ENTIRELY.
AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL...WHICH IS A FAST
OUTLIER THAT SHOWS LESLIE BEING CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AT END OF
THE PERIOD. THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL FASTER
AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-
RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0153 UTC ASCAT PASS
AND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 40149. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 26.3N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 26.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 26.7N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 27.1N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 27.7N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 31.0N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Damn, if that happens this is a whole new ball game. :double:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#931 Postby JahJa » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:42 am

why? @Hybridstorm_November2001 What would that mean for the over all track of storm if the trough misses Leslie? You have to forgive me, as much as I find this stuff interesting my knowledge of it is great!
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#932 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:44 am

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#933 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:42 pm

i suppose if it misses the trough leslie will drift around as a hollowed out shell for another 2 weeks. upwelling is really taking a toll right now. i hope it gets out of the way.
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#934 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:48 pm

i looked at the gfs and im not sure what they mean about it missing the trough. leslie is finally headed far to sea by 168.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#935 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:34 pm

My 2pm Track and Wind Probs(50%+)
Track(As you can see, there is a significant shift east from my 7am track)

Image

Wind Probs(50%+ Defined by Category)

Image

As you can see, Bermuda has a definite chance of TS winds, but Cat1 winds are less than 50%. Parts of eastern Nova Scotia have chances at Cat1 winds, while Cat2 winds are slightly less than 50%. Parts of SW Newfoundland have a good chance at seeing Cat1 winds.
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#936 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:34 pm

AL, 12, 2012090618, , BEST, 0, 265N, 622W, 65, 985, HU

Steady as she goes.
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#937 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:44 pm

Looks like Leslie will miss every bit of land lol.

Models have shifted WAY east
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#938 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 06, 2012 3:41 pm

Great news for Bermuda.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE WHOLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO MAKE THAT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT MORE GRADUALLY.

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#939 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:00 pm

yea, it looks like a little wind and rain.
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Re:

#940 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 5:43 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Looks like Leslie will miss every bit of land lol.

Models have shifted WAY east

Should miss Nova Scotia but watch Newfoundland.
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