ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#941 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:02 pm

Leslie depresses me looking at its sad little disorganized structure. :(
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#942 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:19 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Leslie depresses me looking at its sad little disorganized structure. :(

You should laugh like I am doing. Leslie encapsulates everything that is wrong with this season.

...LESLIE HESITATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

That's a new one :lol: .
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#943 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:58 pm

No offense anyone...but why bother to issue an intermediate advisory when it is clear that Leslie isn't moving or changing in wind speed? This system has been at 75 mph since yesterday afternoon. Of course, the possibility remains for Leslie to strengthen, but I do not see it passing 90 mph, simply because it's stuck in one place and continues to upwell colder waters, without moving. Guys, if this stays here for only around 12-18 hours more, cold upwelling will most likely take Leslie over. In other words, expect slight weakening to about 65 mph. Leslie, Leslie, Leslie. What is she doing here, when there are thousands of miles right around her of warmer water? :roll:

Well, at least Michael became a major hurricane. :)

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#944 Postby yzerfan » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:32 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if it's NHC policy to always have intermediate advisories when there's an active watch or warning in place. Looks like the first intermediate was issued in the cycle after the government of Bermuda issued a TS watch.
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#945 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:48 pm

yzerfan wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if it's NHC policy to always have intermediate advisories when there's an active watch or warning in place. Looks like the first intermediate was issued in the cycle after the government of Bermuda issued a TS watch.


you are indeed correct--watches/warnings prompt intermediates for people in the path to keep better tabs on it and also to allow the NHC to pass things along if things suddenly change
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#946 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:14 pm

Leslie could turn out to be the perfect hurricane. No landfall, minimum affects to Bermuda. Wonderful ride able 7 to 9 footers along the OBX (yes, the ocean today was beautiful here, only to get better). A far cry from the cat 3 possibility just to the west of Bermuda from the prediction issued the other day, and a possible borderline major into Canada. To be honest, I wouldn't mind not having any more threats this year.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#947 Postby MJS1 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:07 am

Leslie is looking ragged..looking at satellite pics,it Leslie SEEMS to be moving ever so slowly west That doesn't mean that it wont follow NHC prediction,,just that at this moment appears to be moving west.

^^^THE PRECEDING FORECAST WAS MADE BY A MAN THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE AT ALL OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR> PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA RADIO FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST@@@@@
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#948 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:20 am

is everyone sick to death of watching leslie sit and spin? its killing the chance of anything else to develop.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#949 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:31 am

Leslie Track:

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#950 Postby Florida1118 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:33 am

rainstorm wrote:is everyone sick to death of watching leslie sit and spin? its killing the chance of anything else to develop.

Im not. It will move eventually, I think you should be happy we are at M when we were not expected to get past 9 or 10 NS :)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#951 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:46 am

Florida1118 wrote:
rainstorm wrote:is everyone sick to death of watching leslie sit and spin? its killing the chance of anything else to develop.

Im not. It will move eventually, I think you should be happy we are at M when we were not expected to get past 9 or 10 NS :)



not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#952 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:58 am

rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.



I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.

May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#953 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:35 am

tolakram wrote:
rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.



I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.

May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.


thats cool. however, im like the winter enthusiast who lives , lets say, in NYC. they dont get all that excited by seeing a blizzard in butte montana. actualy, that analogy isnt good. lets say the winter lover lives (weatherwise) for 3 months a year, dec-feb but in NYC its 10 degrees above normal those 3 months and snowless, like last year. i doubt they would get excited if i told them about all the blizzards that occured in omsk, russia.
Last edited by rainstorm on Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#954 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:42 am

rainstorm wrote:
tolakram wrote:
rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.



I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.

May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.


thats cool. however, im like the winter enthusiast who lives , lets say, in NYC. they dont get all that excited by seeing a blizzard in butte montana.


Winter weather can certainly be hazardous, but rarely does it destroy homes and leave thousands in shelters wondering if anything is left of their belongings. I don't think wishing for a snow storm is quite the same as wishing for a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#955 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:06 am

Recon certainly isn't finding any hurricane force winds. Leslie's been in the same spot too long - lots of cool water upwelling. Peak winds may be in the 60-65 mph range, though average winds are probably closer to 50-55 mph.
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#956 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:10 am

FYI I'm not following Leslie on my weather blog going forward, unless something changes, as the system is no longer a threat to the Maritimes and/or Maine (my region).

@ Wxman57 true, Leslie looks a total mess today (both on sat pics & reading recon data).
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#957 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:50 am

Leslie seems to be the Isaac of the central Atlantic. So big, no core and so difficult to forecast.

With Recon only finding winds of about 50 kt yet a 980mb pressure, I think the lowest pressure about 36 hours ago was about 972mb (with 65 kt winds).
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#958 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:52 am

I cannot post live Recon now due to classes, but the most recent VDM supports a 55 kt intensity:

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KWBC 071344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122012
A. 07/13:15:26Z
B. 26 deg 37 min N
062 deg 10 min W
C. NA
D. 52 kt
E. 050 deg 77 nm
F. 126 deg 67 kt
G. 046 deg 81 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 13 C / 2388 m
J. 17 C / 2524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / NA
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 12:44:04Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT SW QUAD 13:28:47Z
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#959 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:56 am

Down to 60 kt tropical storm (a bit generous IMO), but lower pressure found as suspected. The SST's have dropped about 5C while Leslie was over that spot per discussion (from about 29C to 24C)
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#960 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:21 am

wxman57 wrote:Recon certainly isn't finding any hurricane force winds. Leslie's been in the same spot too long - lots of cool water upwelling. Peak winds may be in the 60-65 mph range, though average winds are probably closer to 50-55 mph.


it has the hollowed out appearance of sitting in one spot way too long. it is also suffering from the helicopter effect. if a helicopter hovers in one spot too long it will fall out of the sky.
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