ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#961 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:46 am

Leslie weakens to 70mph

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#962 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:20 am

Hi all,

I've had to remove some posts. Let's keep this topic on Leslie please. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#963 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:20 am

Let me guess......Leslie is just going to stay in this spot until it upwells waters below 20°C. Remember I told you last night that Leslie would most likely weaken? Well, she really did not move the least bit, so let's watch and see if the colder waters take their grand toll on her. Most likely, she'll weaken to about 45 mph before moving, then when she finally reaches the warm SSTs right around her, she would probably stay at that strength for about 48-60 hours after, before intensifying to a 90 mph storm at the very last minute.

Anyways, on the bright side of things, we've had Michael, who is prospering right now as a 105 mph Category 2, though it weakened (it is still a lovely storm). Also, we're at our thirteenth named storm, totally defying all of the original predictions before the season officially began. :D

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#964 Postby TYNI » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:21 am

tolakram wrote:Hi all,

I've had to remove some posts. Let's keep this topic on Leslie please. Thanks.



Thanks Mark!
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#965 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:46 am

I don't think many of us thought this thing was going to strengthen yesterday and it clearly looked bad. Now its just horrid, definitely not a hurricane and 60 knots seems a lot higher than satellite appearances. Leslie may not recover well from this massive upwelling episode. Every frame gets worse and appears to be falling apart structure wise. One possible interesting aspect to this is how long Leslie sits there and upwells; how much she will weaken and how cold the waters can become at the surface. I haven't seen one like this in a long time.

To those saying Bermuda got lucky or its brighter for them, they probably only missed some rain and higher than normal winds :lol: . Bermuda knows how to deal with strong hurricanes, this is beyond a picnic to them.
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#966 Postby rainstorm » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:51 pm

structures are well built in bermuda. since leslie has been stuck for so long if or when it does move it should be even further east of bermuda and the threat to canada should be diminshed.
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#967 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:16 pm

Shes started to move again!, North and 5 mph
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#968 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:31 pm

AL, 12, 2012090718, , BEST, 0, 272N, 622W, 60, 982, TS

Surprisingly no changes to earlier (pre-Recon), since the pressure was likely lower earlier.
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#969 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:55 pm

looks like the convection is rebuilding to the east, and should wrap around in about a day once the storm gets further from the upwelling
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Re:

#970 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:13 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I don't think many of us thought this thing was going to strengthen yesterday and it clearly looked bad. Now its just horrid, definitely not a hurricane and 60 knots seems a lot higher than satellite appearances. Leslie may not recover well from this massive upwelling episode. Every frame gets worse and appears to be falling apart structure wise. One possible interesting aspect to this is how long Leslie sits there and upwells; how much she will weaken and how cold the waters can become at the surface. I haven't seen one like this in a long time.

To those saying Bermuda got lucky or its brighter for them, they probably only missed some rain and higher than normal winds :lol: . Bermuda knows how to deal with strong hurricanes, this is beyond a picnic to them.


Hey, Cyclenall, an eye made of dry air is forming. :D This storm looks like it's on its last. :D

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#971 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:34 pm

My track for Leslie:
Image

My track for Leslie 4 days ago:
Image

Storm was crazy hard to track.
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#972 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:35 pm

This storm just needs to get moving so it can restrengthen which appears to be starting now.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: Re:

#973 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:37 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I don't think many of us thought this thing was going to strengthen yesterday and it clearly looked bad. Now its just horrid, definitely not a hurricane and 60 knots seems a lot higher than satellite appearances. Leslie may not recover well from this massive upwelling episode. Every frame gets worse and appears to be falling apart structure wise. One possible interesting aspect to this is how long Leslie sits there and upwells; how much she will weaken and how cold the waters can become at the surface. I haven't seen one like this in a long time.

To those saying Bermuda got lucky or its brighter for them, they probably only missed some rain and higher than normal winds :lol: . Bermuda knows how to deal with strong hurricanes, this is beyond a picnic to them.


Hey, Cyclenall, an eye made of dry air is forming. :D This storm looks like it's on its last. :D

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hurricanes1234, you may be right, but I think there is a 40-60% chance Leslie becomes a hurricane again, though I would guess its at most 55kts right now.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#974 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:41 pm

Leslie hits 55 kts...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#975 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:17 pm

Wow, no posts in several hours, where is everybody? Leslie is wrapping up nice tonight, the eye has developed again and the convection is the strongest in several days, tomorrow would be interesting.
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#976 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:41 am

I think people have given up on this one given how it has failed to live up to everyone's expectations

today convection has wrapped all the way around except for the east, and itll be interesting to see how it looks by tomorrow afternoon
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#977 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:45 am

Yes, I don't blame anyone for giving up on Leslie - it has never been able to overcome the minor issues around it, quite unlike our good friend, Michael, who became a major hurricane AND continues to maintain a healthy structure and some strong 100 mph winds.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#978 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:18 am

Wait...do I see an annular structure trying to form? If this does become annular, that would change the way everyone, including me, thinks about Leslie. It would brighten things up! :D
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#979 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:24 am

It is possible, that a new, large eye will form. May be Leslie is again getting its act together and will intensify into a Cat1 or 2. The next few hours will show if this new trend is going on.

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#980 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:38 am

Latest

Image

Image
Last edited by Hurricane_Luis on Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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