ATL: LESLIE - Models

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#221 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:07 pm

The 12z GFS OP is way out to lunch, I think that's pretty obvious. The ensemble mean takes her right over Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#222 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:10 pm

This goes past 70W and Leslie got my attention...generally moving WNW-NW.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#223 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:19 pm

wxman57, any indications this could go past 70W at any point?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#224 Postby jrfitz06 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:23 pm

09/03 12Z CMC run

Image
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#225 Postby jrfitz06 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:28 pm

12Z CMC run
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#226 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:30 pm

Not good for me....This is Sunday,September 9. Schools here may have a rare, "hurricane day", while people with jobs try and drive in the rain. :lol:
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Last edited by HurricaneAndrew92 on Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#227 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:31 pm

That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#228 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:37 pm

Riptide wrote:That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.

Up from a 2% yesterday. How strong would Leslie be in that model run in the final frame?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#229 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:39 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
Riptide wrote:That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.

Up from a 2% yesterday. How strong would Leslie be in that model run in the final frame?

High-end Cat 1/Low-end Cat 2; quite formidable for that location. 970's mb pressure.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#230 Postby hurricaneCW » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:43 pm

Models make her quite a large and rather formidable hurricane in a few days, maybe a mid level Category 2 and even a major hurricane can't be ruled out either. Some impressive swell and deadly rip currents appear very likely for several days up and down the east coast at the very least.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#231 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:44 pm

12z euro is west, don't have the graphics yet.
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#232 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:44 pm

how far west?
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Re:

#233 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:46 pm

rainstorm wrote:how far west?

Edouard-like west, the trend is your friend though (mabye not, lol). Brings hurricane storm conditions to the Cape (Cape Cod).
Last edited by Riptide on Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#234 Postby rainstorm » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:47 pm

didnt edwoaurd come up around 70w? thats a big shift west
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Re:

#235 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:48 pm

rainstorm wrote:didnt edwoaurd come up around 70w? thats a big shift west

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#236 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:50 pm

Euro +120 hrs
Don't look at the minimum pressure. :eek:

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#237 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:50 pm

The intensity of Leslie approaches Category 5 near Bermuda, the euro is notorious for doing this with mid-laditude hurricanes though. It brought Irene down to 932 mb.
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Re:

#238 Postby Hey Its Me » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:53 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Euro +120 hrs
Don't look at the minimum pressure. :eek:

[img ]http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/48/natlprmslmsl120.gif[/img ]


Ahhhh! What has been seen can not be unseen.

I need a Xanax...
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#239 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:06 pm

I'm interested enough that I'm now (started last night) tracking Leslie at my weather blog: http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/ I'll update it at the end of every day, by the weekend we'll see things could get rather hectic.... :double:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models

#240 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:09 pm

Image


:double:
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