ATL: LESLIE - Models

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro: 144hr

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro: 168hr

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro: 192hr

[jinftl]

18z model runs show Leslie in no hurry to go anywhere this week...

[floridasun78]

poor nhc their other system playing with them

[jinftl]

Pretty good consensus she will be a 'cane by the end of the week too

[bonjourno]

Useless as it may be for tropical forecasting, here's the 18Z NAM at 84 hours. You can see half of Leslie in the lower-right corner, comfortably off the coast of Florida.

[Riptide]

12z GFS Initialization



6 Hrs.

[rainstorm]

keep us updated if the long range gets interesting.

[Riptide]

keep us updated if the long range gets interesting.

I don't want to look at this weather model anymore. If it can't even get a 12 hour forecast right, there is no point in looking at it. The center isn't going to move back to 60W.

[rainstorm]

yea, but the longe range may at least hint of more interesting times.

[jrfitz06]

This is my first time posting....I know historically the GGEM isnt that accurate its just interesting to atleast see some of the model starting to shift west

12Z GGEM +144










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[Riptide]

yea, but the longe range may at least hint of more interesting times.

Indeed, on every other model except the GFS. The CMC is shocking to be honest; even more west than 0z. Is that yesterday's 12z run?

[rainstorm]

thats textbook set-up for a hurricane to hit long island if it were a little more west.

[Riptide]

thats textbook set-up for a hurricane to hit long island if it were a little more west.

Everyone bailed on Leslie way too soon; JB is calling for Leslie to reach 70W and I think this is more likely than what the GFS is projecting.

[jrfitz06]

yes that was yesterday's 12z run this is todays 00Z run

00Z GGEM +144

[Riptide]

The 12z CMC is almost identical to 0z, mabye 20 miles further west. Wouldn't rule out a coastal brush especially if the euro agrees.

[ronjon]

12z CMC - taking aim for the mid-atlantic/New England - let's see if the euro shifts west.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/12zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

[rainstorm]

looks like it gets to about 72w heading nw on that run. if the euro shows that JB will be jumping up and down!!

[bonjourno]

12Z GFS only verrrrry sloooowly moving northward through 120 hours


Then -- for what it's worth; I know models are about as useful as dart boards after that range -- it takes its sweet time moving over Bermuda through 168 hours and turns more NNE/NE


Possible Newfoundland-fall at 177 hours.


And then even further out, we seem to have the exact same scenario with that storm GFS wants to develop off of Africa. Leslie makes a break in the ridge a-la-Kirk and it recurves in almost the same spot as Leslie north of the islands. Again, verrry long-range.

This will be interesting to watch.