BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE ACCELERATING ON ITS WAY TO NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 60.8W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONES COVE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND LESLIE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
NEWFOUNDLAND. LESLIE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN A TRANSFORMATION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE HEADING FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 765 MI...1225 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOR TO TRITON.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEGINNING LATER
TODAY. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LESLIE MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
LESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE
SPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.
LESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
SINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS AROUND
THAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 37.0N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE HEADING FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 765 MI...1225 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOR TO TRITON.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEGINNING LATER
TODAY. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LESLIE MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012
LESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE
SPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.
LESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.
SINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS AROUND
THAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 37.0N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 59.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LESLIE MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 59.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. THIS GENERAL HEADING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LESLIE MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
- Age: 67
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WITH 70 MPH WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED
VERY MUCH...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A NEARBY SHIP REPORT
INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASYMMETRY
OF THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHIELD SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING
TO SLOWLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE LESLIE REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
LESLIE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 40.0N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 44.4N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 51.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 58.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 62.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 62.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WITH 70 MPH WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED
VERY MUCH...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A NEARBY SHIP REPORT
INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASYMMETRY
OF THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHIELD SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING
TO SLOWLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE LESLIE REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
LESLIE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 40.0N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 44.4N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 51.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 58.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 62.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 62.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WITH NEAR HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 58.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WITH NEAR HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 58.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139026
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
WOCN31 CWHX 102345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:48 PM ADT MONDAY
10 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.
LESLIE IS MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS AND ACCELERATING TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 41.2 NORTH 58.5 WEST.
ABOUT 745 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE, NL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH NEAR 54 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED
BY TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TOMORROW. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL HAVE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN
ATLANTIC CANADA AS FOLLOWS: A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH LESLIE AND THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND
ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE ALREADY
AFFECTED AREAS. LESLIE'S CENTRE WILL LIKELY BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
THE BURIN PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE STORM'S EFFECTS
WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH IMPACTS SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE
STORM'S TRACK SO DO NOT PUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON THE EXACT LINE ON THE
TRACK MAP.
MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT STORM
WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION AND THEN
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS.
A. WIND.
LESLIE ALREADY HAS A LARGE WIND CIRCULATION AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE REGION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN AREAS
100 TO 300 KILOMETRES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK, WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 80 GUSTING TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT GUSTS
TO 90 OR 100 KM/H ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN NOVA SCOTIA THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND
THE MERGED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER CAPE BRETON WHERE GUSTS TO 80 KM/H
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREE DAMAGE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 100 KM/H. THIS MAY LEAD TO DOWNED
UTILITY LINES AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGES.
B. RAINFALL.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SOME
AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 MILLIMETRES.
EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) - WITH
LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS - ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER
MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AREAS WEST OF LESLIE'S TRACK AND
WHERE ITS MOISTURE INTERACTS STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH FOR
NOW INCLUDES EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
IN THE PARTICULARLY HARD-HIT TRURO AREA, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
NOW MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.
RAINFALL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STREET
FLOODING, PROPERTY EROSION AND ROAD WASHOUTS. HAZARDS FOR MOTORISTS
INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HYDROPLANING, AND POSSIBLE COMPROMISED
ROADBEDS AND BRIDGES.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE
STORM ARRIVES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL BE SOME SURGE
ACCOMPANYING LESLIE'S ARRIVAL DURING THE MORNING BUT THE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY TO OFFSET BY COINCIDENT LOW TIDES IN THAT AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.
CANADIAN AND U.S. WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES
FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES OF ABOUT 3-5 METRES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES OF 4-7 METRES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND INCREASING TO 8-12
METRES FOR THE PLACENTIA BAY AREA THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 METRES
EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA.
THESE HEAVY POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND
SOME COASTAL EROSION IN EXPOSED OR VULNERABLE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE IN PLACENTIA BAY
AND THE BURIN PENINSULA REGION IF LESLIE ACCELERATES TONIGHT TO REACH
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT OR VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING AT HIGH TIDE
(ABOUT 4 AM NDT TIME).
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE.
COASTAL IMPACTS INCLUDE POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND WAVE OVERWASH IN
PRONE AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AVALON, PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN
PENINSULA.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:48 PM ADT MONDAY
10 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.
LESLIE IS MOVING INTO CANADIAN WATERS AND ACCELERATING TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 PM ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 41.2 NORTH 58.5 WEST.
ABOUT 745 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE, NL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH NEAR 54 KM/H.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED
BY TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TOMORROW. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL HAVE BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS IN
ATLANTIC CANADA AS FOLLOWS: A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS FRONT HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH LESLIE AND THE COMBINED SYSTEMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND
ON TUESDAY GIVING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME OF THE ALREADY
AFFECTED AREAS. LESLIE'S CENTRE WILL LIKELY BE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
THE BURIN PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE STORM'S EFFECTS
WILL BE FAR-REACHING WITH IMPACTS SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE
STORM'S TRACK SO DO NOT PUT MUCH EMPHASIS ON THE EXACT LINE ON THE
TRACK MAP.
MUCH-SMALLER HURRICANE MICHAEL WELL TO THE EAST OF LESLIE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT STORM
WILL LIKELY BE BYPASSED BY LESLIE'S LARGE CIRCULATION AND THEN
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE GRAND BANKS.
A. WIND.
LESLIE ALREADY HAS A LARGE WIND CIRCULATION AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE REGION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN AREAS
100 TO 300 KILOMETRES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK, WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 80 GUSTING TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
LESLIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT GUSTS
TO 90 OR 100 KM/H ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. IN NOVA SCOTIA THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND
THE MERGED SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER CAPE BRETON WHERE GUSTS TO 80 KM/H
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREE DAMAGE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 100 KM/H. THIS MAY LEAD TO DOWNED
UTILITY LINES AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGES.
B. RAINFALL.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED OVER NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND, WITH SOME
AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 MILLIMETRES.
EVENT-TOTAL RAINFALL OF 100-150 MILLIMETRES (4 TO 6 INCHES) - WITH
LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS - ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE COMPUTER
MODELS AND EXPERIENCE WITH SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST. LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE AREAS WEST OF LESLIE'S TRACK AND
WHERE ITS MOISTURE INTERACTS STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH FOR
NOW INCLUDES EASTERN MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA, CAPE BRETON, AND
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
IN THE PARTICULARLY HARD-HIT TRURO AREA, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
NOW MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.
RAINFALL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STREET
FLOODING, PROPERTY EROSION AND ROAD WASHOUTS. HAZARDS FOR MOTORISTS
INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITIES, HYDROPLANING, AND POSSIBLE COMPROMISED
ROADBEDS AND BRIDGES.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
HEAVIER SURF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. ON TUESDAY AS THE
STORM ARRIVES IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THERE WILL BE SOME SURGE
ACCOMPANYING LESLIE'S ARRIVAL DURING THE MORNING BUT THE IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY TO OFFSET BY COINCIDENT LOW TIDES IN THAT AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.
CANADIAN AND U.S. WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING LARGE LONG PERIOD WAVES
FOR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES OF ABOUT 3-5 METRES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. WAVES OF 4-7 METRES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND INCREASING TO 8-12
METRES FOR THE PLACENTIA BAY AREA THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 METRES
EAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA.
THESE HEAVY POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS AND
SOME COASTAL EROSION IN EXPOSED OR VULNERABLE AREAS.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE IN PLACENTIA BAY
AND THE BURIN PENINSULA REGION IF LESLIE ACCELERATES TONIGHT TO REACH
NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT OR VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING AT HIGH TIDE
(ABOUT 4 AM NDT TIME).
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARITIMES AND
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK. STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT WATERS. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR WEATHER OFFICE.
COASTAL IMPACTS INCLUDE POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND WAVE OVERWASH IN
PRONE AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AVALON, PLACENTIA BAY AND THE BURIN
PENINSULA.
VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:
- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.
- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.
- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.
- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.
PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
STEADILY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY OTHER THAN CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT
LESLIE HAS WINDS OF AT LEAST 60 KT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139 LOCATED
ABOUT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAVE LIKELY SHIFTED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE THE WINDS AT THAT BUOY HAVE
NOT INCREASED TO MORE THAN 25 KT. THE ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDFIELD
AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
NOW LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 100 NMI WEST OF THE CENTER. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH
THE CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE LESLIE REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.
REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE AT LANDFALL TUESDAY
MORNING...IT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
LESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 42.7N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 47.6N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 54.2N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 59.8N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 62.5N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 62.5N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL
STEADILY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110258
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY OTHER THAN CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT
LESLIE HAS WINDS OF AT LEAST 60 KT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139 LOCATED
ABOUT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAVE LIKELY SHIFTED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE THE WINDS AT THAT BUOY HAVE
NOT INCREASED TO MORE THAN 25 KT. THE ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDFIELD
AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
NOW LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 100 NMI WEST OF THE CENTER. IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH
THE CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE LESLIE REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.
REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE AT LANDFALL TUESDAY
MORNING...IT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
LESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 42.7N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 47.6N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 54.2N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 59.8N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 62.5N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 62.5N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
...STRONG WINDS SPREADING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.7N 56.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR... TO TRITON
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...
500 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND. A CANADIAN BUOY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
CANADIAN BUOY IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
LESLIE IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...AND COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139
HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER AND DETERMING THAT
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. THE BUOY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 KT WITH A GUST
TO 60 KT AROUND 0600 UTC...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971.5 MB ABOUT
AN HOUR LATER. THE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT LESLIE IS ALSO
LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT AND IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA
THAT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 50 TO 55 KT WINDS.
LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE TODAY. THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND VERY SOON AND WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE
COAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL POSTION.
LESLIE SHOULD COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN JUST OVER 72 HOURS.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON RECENT
ASCAT AND SURFACE DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 45.7N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 51.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0600Z 57.5N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 61.5N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 63.5N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 61.5N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
...STRONG WINDS SPREADING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.7N 56.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR... TO TRITON
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...
500 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND. A CANADIAN BUOY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 69 MPH...111 KM/H WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
CANADIAN BUOY IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
THIS MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
LESLIE IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...AND COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139
HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER AND DETERMING THAT
THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. THE BUOY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 KT WITH A GUST
TO 60 KT AROUND 0600 UTC...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971.5 MB ABOUT
AN HOUR LATER. THE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT LESLIE IS ALSO
LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT AND IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA
THAT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 50 TO 55 KT WINDS.
LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE TODAY. THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND VERY SOON AND WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE
COAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL POSTION.
LESLIE SHOULD COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN JUST OVER 72 HOURS.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON RECENT
ASCAT AND SURFACE DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 45.7N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 51.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0600Z 57.5N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 61.5N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 63.5N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 61.5N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
...CENTER OF LESLIE ABOUT TO MOVE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.2N 55.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF STONES COVE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM W OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...
500 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57
MPH...92 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH...131 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
800 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
...CENTER OF LESLIE ABOUT TO MOVE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.2N 55.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF STONES COVE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM W OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...AND MOVE AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL OR
FRONTAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...
500 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57
MPH...92 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH...131 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Advisories
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON
LESLIE. THE STRONG POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30
DEGREES AT 39 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 49.4N 53.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/0000Z 54.4N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1200Z 60.1N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z 62.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 63.0N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 61.5N 5.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS
BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON
LESLIE. THE STRONG POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30
DEGREES AT 39 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 49.4N 53.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/0000Z 54.4N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1200Z 60.1N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z 62.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 63.0N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 61.5N 5.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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