EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 03, 2012 10:45 am

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2012

EARLY MORNING MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF JOHN IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE CI-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMMS ARE T2.5.
BASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
35 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE
HOSTILE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH JOHN MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING.
AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

JOHN WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT
THE OVERALL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...DUE TO THE MORE NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL POSTION. THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK SHOWS SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS JOHN BECOMES A
SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THAT
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS A VERY GOOD
PERFORMER FOR THE WEAKENING PHASE OF ILEANA.

SOME MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.7N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 26.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Looks like we go our 10th land impacting J storm out of the last 11 usages of the name.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF JOHN IS
GRADUALLY DECLINING WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENT ASCAT DATA WERE NOT
HELPFUL FOR DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS THE OVERPASS ONLY
SAMPLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 28 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION
SUGGESTS THAT 30 TO 35 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING NEARER
TO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE SHIP OBSERVATION AND A DVORAK
CI-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
35 KT. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING JOHN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SOME MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 23.4N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 25.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 27.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:18 pm

Poor John, struggling in the face of deadly wind shear, I would have loved to see this name go to a hurricane. :cry:
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:32 pm

Bye to John. 00z Best Track downgrades to TD.

EP, 10, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1142W, 30, 1003, TD
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#25 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:51 pm

It isn't shear, really. The water temps that he is over are at 25C and getting colder. Just like Illena.
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#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:37 pm

John on its way out now.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 10:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES IS THE BASIS
FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT. JOHN IS NEARING THE
26C-ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD REACH A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 12-24 HOURS. AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A QUICK DEMISE OF JOHN. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN BASIC AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...THOUGH RECENT CENTER FIXES
SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SHOW JOHN DECELERATING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
ONCE THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES AND BECOMES SHALLOW...ITS FORWARD MOTION
SHOULD SLOW FURTHER AND THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE NORTH OR
POSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A HAIR TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN
MORE SO BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 21.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 22.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 23.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.0N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 25.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 27.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:48 am

00
WTPZ45 KNHC 040839
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012

THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY
IN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:48 am

Won't be surprised to see its next advisory its last.
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Re:

#30 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:22 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Won't be surprised to see its next advisory its last.


I second to that
Image
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

#31 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:49 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012

BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM MORE THAN 12 HOURS...JOHN
HAS BEEN DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT AND IS BASED
ON A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL
SPINDOWN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW
TRACK FORCAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BETWEEN THE
LATEST GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 05/0600Z 25.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1800Z 26.1N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 27.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 27.8N 121.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 04, 2012 4:12 pm

Goodbye John. See ya in 2016.
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Re:

#33 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 4:22 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Goodbye John. See ya in 2016.

You mean 2018?
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

#34 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 6:01 pm

Poor John, a sad, short-lived and weak tropical storm battling fatal wind shear in its path, but succumbing to its injuries in the end. :cry:
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