ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:43 am

BEST TRACK: AL99, 288N 366W, 20kts, 1015mb, DB INVEST

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1075 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Last edited by somethingfunny on Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL - Invest 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:47 am

No model support at all.
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#3 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:54 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:57 am

It will most likely move around the ridge or get picked up by a trough.

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Re: ATL: Invest 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:08 am

It hasn't been easy to find on the global model runs but it looks like they do initialize a weak low pressure that moves southwest beneath the ridge that's south of Kirk. Eventually, the next trough picks it up. Maybe the globals will do more with it now that it's been pegged as an Invest, but I don't see a whole lot developing from this area.

This area actually had a much stronger representation on the models a few days ago if I recall correctly, when the globals didn't notice tiny little Kirk off to the west.
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Re: ATL: Invest 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:22 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2012 6:40 am

Down to 10%.

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#8 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:28 am

Image
It dose have an llcc and it might be trying to get a bit better organised
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:54 am

interesting, maybe this is one where the ULL drills down to the surface....I havent seen one do that in a long time....
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#10 Postby rainstorm » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:56 am

might be the strongest of the season, lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby Riptide » Sun Sep 02, 2012 12:15 pm

Pretty dumb, why would you invest this; even if it was a transitioning ULL; considering the time constraints and such.
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#12 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:03 pm

They invest systems so that they can get much more analysis on them. Otherwise, certain models wouldn't run, etc.
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Re:

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 2:55 pm

rainstorm wrote:might be the strongest of the season, lol


True, true. So what are we expecting, a 200 mph Category 5? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:
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Re: Re:

#14 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:56 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
rainstorm wrote:might be the strongest of the season, lol


True, true. So what are we expecting, a 200 mph Category 5? :roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:


haha i dont reckon its exposed.
Image
Last edited by Hurricane_Luis on Mon Sep 03, 2012 5:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:57 pm

How can you say it's pathetic? It has a circulation, which many invests never achieve. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:03 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012090300, , BEST, 0, 258N, 407W, 25, 1015, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#17 Postby bonjourno » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:28 pm

Latest GFS and UKMET picked up on it; image in the model thread.
Meanwhile, latest loop:
Image

Looks like a lot of moisture streaming down from Kirk towards Leslie in its path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:03 pm

Hey folks,look at this tiny tight circulation that 99L has that ASCAT caught all of it.

Image
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:30 pm

It looks closed to me - just needs some more convection.
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#20 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 12:58 am

Up to 30%


1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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