ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO stays at 30%.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

[ROCK]

yeah its closed, just needs to maintain convection. LLC is quite vigorous, another blow up coming up around the center...

[cycloneye]

Looking good at this time.Will it survive the surrounding enviroment?

[Macrocane]

Cloud tops have cooled a bit in the last couple of hours, it may go 50% or 60% in the next TWO.

[Florida1118]

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not too shabby on microwave:

[bonjourno]

It looks better, but I just don't really see where it can actually go...

Apparently neither can the models, at the moment.

[TheEuropean]

Why is it gone on the storm2k-grafik? renumbering in progress?

[Extratropical94]

Why is it gone on the storm2k-grafik? renumbering in progress?

Nothing on the ATCF page yet.

[cycloneye]

Why is it gone on the storm2k-grafik? renumbering in progress?

In fact,it has never been up at graphic since it was declared a invest but I dont know why,maybe a glitch.

[rainstorm]

its there, its just so small you need to zoom in 1000%

[senorpepr]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209032039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Extratropical94]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al132012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209032039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Wow, just after I closed the ATCF page.

Those will very likely be our starting values for the first advisory package if they issue one at 5:

AL, 13, 2012090318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO

I wonder if this one can make it to TS status before experiencing worse conditions.

[tolakram]

Crazy small storm.

[brunota2003]

Another storm expected to reach 35 knots before dying. Much similar to the EPacs John.

[Extratropical94]

Somehow reminds me of Jose from last year, a tiny mid-latitude system popping out of nowhere and getting classified rather quickly.
Maybe TD13 makes the NHC waste another name.

[northjaxpro]

This is one of the smallest tropical cyclones I can ever recall seeing out there in the Atlantic Basin. It is quite amazing monitoring this tiny feature.

[MGC]

i would have thought the NHC would require a bit more convection before upgrading......MGC

[somethingfunny]

For whatever this is worth, the first advisory on Kirk also had a 40mph forecast peak.

[hurricanes1234]

On the Atlantic wide view, 13L looks none other than a regular and extremely common cluster of weak thunderstorm activity. However, up-close, you can see the compact structure and it's fairly well-organized. So can, you all please help me in determining whether we'll have Michael by the 00z best track update, or by 11:00 pm tonight? If so, that'll be the thirteenth named storm, we would have probably had 20 named storms already if July was active!