ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

0Z Best Track has been updated to 75 knots, 985 mbars.

[CrazyC83]

If Michael is a 65 kt hurricane, then Leslie is a 50 kt tropical storm I would put the intensity at 80 if not 85 kt, probably 80 because the convection is not that strong...special advisory or update statement before the next normal advisory?

If the jump is significant, it would probably be a Special Advisory as the forecast peak is 80 kt in the middle term.

[CrazyC83]

0Z Best Track has been updated to 75 knots, 985 mbars.

That indicates a Special Advisory is likely coming between 1 and 2 am.

[brunota2003]

Absolutely stunning! That looks like a hurricane around 90 to 95 knots, IMO.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 13, 2012090600, , BEST, 0, 291N, 424W, 75, 985, HU

[ROCK]

Absolutely stunning! That looks like a hurricane around 90 to 95 knots, IMO.

so agree....easily now a low end CAT 2 IMO....

[Hammy]

another small-storm surprise... interesting to note as well that NHC forecast when it formed had it in the process of dissipating about now

[brunota2003]

It is dissipating...that's not an eye! Don't you see the convection falling apart from the inside out?

[brunota2003]

Alert icon Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.

90 knots - 105 mph!

EDIT:

HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0500Z 29.4N 42.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[CrazyC83]

And we called that one!

[Macrocane]

Finally, Michael is really an exciting hurricane...and according to the first advisory it was going to remain a weak tropical storm.

[Hammy]

I do believe this is literally the first time this season anything was actually -forecast- to Cat 3

edit: go figure that being the case, from a completely non-tropical origin system

[abajan]

It will be interesting to see what size sea swells are generated by the combination of Leslie and Michael.

[Hammy]

AL, 13, 2012090606, , BEST, 0, 294N, 420W, 95, 968, HU,
seems to have leveled off on satellite, and at 110 looks like another system fails to reach Cat 3...

[Cyclenall]

And we called that one!

Yep, thought it was 90 knots just eyeballing it and the NHC agrees.

All this from a ULL...first time in a long time an ULL gave anything good to us . Its such a repeat of Hurricane Kirk though, so similar in every way. Its really organized and the 2nd system to undergo RI this season. Then you have the irony of this upstaging Hurricane Leslie: Way stronger than Les in a much shorter period of time, in an area that should have been less favorable, and not forecast to become more than a weak TS. The track bending it towards the west is pretty odd too. Has an ULL TC ever become stronger than 100 knots before?

another small-storm surprise... interesting to note as well that NHC forecast when it formed had it in the process of dissipating about now

This is just incredible, not to mention the models not even picking it up at all...not even a low.

AL, 13, 2012090606, , BEST, 0, 294N, 420W, 95, 968, HU,
seems to have leveled off on satellite, and at 110 looks like another system fails to reach Cat 3...

How funny would that be, another hurricane to miss major status. This season has its quirks but overall is lame .

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060842
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 41.7W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[Meow]

How funny would that be, another hurricane to miss major status. This season has its quirks but overall is lame .

Michael said: No.

[Graham1973]

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...

YOU LITTLE RIPPER!!!!!

Now lets see if this can make Cat 4!

[Cyclenall]

NHC pulled the trigger, Michael looked too good. I'm amazed that at one point I thought this Invest that is now a major was nothing at all. Here is the first forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

At 2:00 pm EDT today it is/was expected to be a remnant low...wow, insane disparity.

[Florida1118]

NHC pulled the trigger, Michael looked too good. I'm amazed that at one point I thought this Invest that is now a major was nothing at all. Here is the first forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

At 2:00 pm EDT today it is/was expected to be a remnant low...wow, insane disparity.

Just goes to show how little we know about conditions and intensity. The NHC does their best, but sometimes mother nature has a few tricks up her sleeve