ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
HurricaneAndrew92

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#41 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:03 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:On the Atlantic wide view, 13L looks none other than a regular and extremely common cluster of weak thunderstorm activity. However, up-close, you can see the compact structure and it's fairly well-organized. So can, you all please help me in determining whether we'll have Michael by the 00z best track update, or by 11:00 pm tonight? If so, that'll be the thirteenth named storm, we would have probably had 20 named storms already if July was active! :D

Thank god. Though it would have been nice to see some fish.
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#42 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:05 pm

I wonder how small it is to Marco from 2008? It will be interesting to see the size comparisons of TS force winds if Thirteen becomes Michael.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#43 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:30 pm

no doubt its a TD now...probably one earlier....another name off the list? hope so...my number was 13/9/4....I just hope it makes it to a cane...and or major...I am lacking on the major...
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:27 pm

Remains as TD on the 00z Best Track.

AL, 13, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 258N, 425W, 30, 1012, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:42 pm

20120903 2345 25.8 42.3 T2.0/2.0 13L NONAME
0 likes   

Floridaman
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Age: 31
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:54 pm
Location: Key West, Florida

#46 Postby Floridaman » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:15 pm

Why is this even considered a "storm"? It doesn't even look like anything.
0 likes   

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1805
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re:

#47 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:19 pm

Floridaman wrote:Why is this even considered a "storm"? It doesn't even look like anything.

It is quite organized in its core; convection is not very strong though. It is a small storm, and fits the definitions to be a TC per the NHC.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Alexis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 683
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
Location: Miami,Florida

Re:

#48 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:28 pm

Floridaman wrote:Why is this even considered a "storm"? It doesn't even look like anything.


It's a very small storm, maybe that's why, but it has a vigorous circulation.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#49 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:47 pm

Don't worry TD #13, I did a wind graphic for you (as well as Leslie)! It'll probably be the only one for #13, but at least it gets one!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Image
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#50 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:47 am

Don't count this little system out yet folks. The 0z Euro maintained 13L for over a week and even strengthens the cyclone a bit. The latest NHC forecast no longer calls for degeneration, and instead slowly builds to a 40mph peak in a few days.

THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT AN EASY PREDICTION AS
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
STAY AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER
WARM WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY MANY GLOBAL
MODELS TO CUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IN A FEW
DAYS...WHICH COULD CREATE A FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN FOR
INTENSIFICATION. WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...IT DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A REMNANT LOW ANYTIME SOON...AND THE NEW FORECAST NO LONGER
SHOWS THAT TRANSITION. THE LATEST PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TRACK FARTHER TO THE
LEFT THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN MORE WEAKENING THAN
SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:13 am

Maybe Michael at 11 AM?

04/1145 UTC 26.9N 43.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138887
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:37 am

And 12z Best Track confirms what SSD dvorak has. We have Michael!

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#53 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:40 am

cycloneye wrote:And 12z Best Track confirms what SSD dvorak has. We have Michael!

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


It hasn't come up on the NHC website yet, perhaps they are concentrating to much on Leslie.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#54 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:43 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:
cycloneye wrote:And 12z Best Track confirms what SSD dvorak has. We have Michael!

AL, 13, 2012090412, , BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


It hasn't come up on the NHC website yet, perhaps they are concentrating to much on Leslie.


They will upgrade TD13 to Michael with their next advisory package at 11am EDT, there's no need to issue any special information as the system does not threaten anyone.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#55 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:27 am

wow...the first time in a long time to see an ULL transition all the way down. Great stuff and it wont effect anyone so even better. Another name off the list...
0 likes   

Zanthe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Age: 29
Joined: Sat May 26, 2012 9:26 pm
Location: New Castle, PA

#56 Postby Zanthe » Tue Sep 04, 2012 9:40 am

ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.
0 likes   
I'm no expert, everything I say should be taken with a large amount of salt. I could easily be very, very wrong.
~Zanthe Go Coyotes~

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:00 am

What is amazing is that since Ike, we have had 67 named storms in the Atlantic, yet only two cat-One and a few T.S.'s made landfall in the US (assuming Leslie does not make landfall in the US, which I do not expect).

I really wonder if the climate has changed making U.S. landfalls more improbable...I am noticing the last few years that the East Coast troughs have tended to be deeper than average during the main hurricane months.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicana
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8056
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
Contact:

Re:

#58 Postby tropicana » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:09 am

Zanthe wrote:
ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.



they will rescind that...since TS MARIA in 2011 wasn't named until Sep 7.

In 2005, TS MARIA was named on Sep 2 so that is correct. Just beyond this date, TS MARILYN was named on Sep 12 1995.

So the correct statement should be..

Only 2005 had the 13th named storm form earlier that Sep
4.

-justin-
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: Re:

#59 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:34 am

tropicana wrote:
Zanthe wrote:
ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.



they will rescind that...since TS MARIA in 2011 wasn't named until Sep 7.

In 2005, TS MARIA was named on Sep 2 so that is correct. Just beyond this date, TS MARILYN was named on Sep 12 1995.

So the correct statement should be..

Only 2005 had the 13th named storm form earlier that Sep
4.

-justin-


That's correct, but Maria '11 was the 14th storm of the season, as there was an unnamed storm from September 1st to 3rd that was discovered in post-season reanalysis.
Therefore the 13th storm formed on Sep 1.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#60 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:47 am

Michael, IMHO, will probably be the 14th or maybe even 15th, since there was at least one other system early this season that remained unnamed.
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests