ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hurricane at 11 PM?

[rainstorm]

should be a hurricane now.

[cycloneye]

With these SSD Dvorak numbers there is no doubt is a bonifide hurricane.

05/2345 UTC 29.1N 42.4W T4.5/4.5 MICHAEL -- Atlantic

[Windsurfer_NYC]

MICHAEL, AL, L, , , , , 13, 2012, HU, O, 2012090200, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL132012

[hurricanes1234]

And we have Hurricane Michael, the seventh hurricane of the season!

AL, 13, 2012090600, , BEST, 0, 291N, 424W, 65, 990, HU

[CrazyC83]

65 kt seems awfully conservative with T4.5 and a small size...I would say about 80-85 kt.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

And we have Hurricane Michael, the seventh hurricane of the season!

And more than a day and a half sooner than the 7th hurricane of the 2005 season: Hurricane Nate

[galaxy401]

Another hurricane to form in the subtropics along with Kirk, Gordon, Chris, and I guess maybe Leslie. Like with Kirk, Michael might be stronger than we think due to its small size. Looks like Leslie's little brother on satelitte.

[ROCK]

pin hole eye....yeah I would say a high end cat 1 approaching cat 2....

[hurricanes1234]

Small but distinct eye - I agree with all who say that Michael is at least 85 mph.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[smw1981]

He definitely looks like a high end Cat 1 already... (hopefully they will up the winds with the next advisory!)

[rainstorm]

looks better than isaac ever did.

[cycloneye]

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

[bonjourno]

So has there ever been two systems become hurricanes on the same day? Or is this a first.

[cycloneye]

I would have gone with 75kts but is only my opinion. From 11 PM discussion.

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...

[SouthDadeFish]

Possibly making a run at cat 2 here soon. Eye is starting to clear out even more...

[brunota2003]

CIMSS ADT T#s are through the roof. Raw is at 5.4, Adjusted is at 5.4 as well. Final #s are still down at 4.6, but climbing!

[CrazyC83]

CIMSS ADT T#s are through the roof. Raw is at 5.4, Adjusted is at 5.4 as well. Final #s are still down at 4.6, but climbing!

I'd put out a special advisory with a much higher intensity - I would say 90 kt given the underestimation of Dvorak with small storms.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

If Michael is a 65 kt hurricane, then Leslie is a 50 kt tropical storm I would put the intensity at 80 if not 85 kt, probably 80 because the convection is not that strong...special advisory or update statement before the next normal advisory?

[bonjourno]

It looks like it's gotten a little larger on the latest loop, no?

Still a dwarf compared to Leslie, but it seems to have expanded a little.