ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS OPEN
ON THE WEST SIDE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T4.0/5.0
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND HAVE FALLEN TO T4.4/4.8 FROM THE
UW-CIMSS ADT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT.

MICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SQUEEZED A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST BY THE SURROUNDING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH COULD BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND MICHAEL
IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. THE
OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KT NEAR THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO SUFFER MARKEDLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS THEN SHOW MICHAEL RUNNING INTO A WARM FRONT BY DAY 4...WHILE
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20 DEGREES CELSIUS...SO THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE POST-TROPICAL AT 96 HOURS AND ABSORBED BY
THE FRONT AT 120 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/4 KT. MICHAEL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE BEING
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AND IT IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH
OTHER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE ONLY REAL UPDATE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 72-HOUR
POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 31.8N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 32.2N 42.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 32.9N 42.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 33.5N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 33.9N 43.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 36.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 44.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS
BEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS
LAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS
THE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2
TO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST
OF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY DAY 4.

THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM
MOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A
STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 32.2N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 32.6N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 33.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 33.5N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 33.9N 44.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 36.7N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 45.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 42.1W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
SMALL EYE THAT HAS RECENTLY WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 90 KT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
THE ADT ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS...SO THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO
THAT VALUE. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR MICHAEL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS PROBABLY ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS
UPWELLING SOME COOL WATER AND LIMITING ANY INTENISIFICATION. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN A RECENT BUOY NEAR THE CENTER THAT SHOWED AN SST OF
ABOUT 78F. OTHERWISE...AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND GRADUALLY
COOLING SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM
LESLIE...ALONG WITH MICHAEL MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS A MORE
RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE COLD WATER SHOULD
TURN MICHAEL INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST
24H...THEN IS BLENDED BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EVEN SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...THIS HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO THE
EAST OF MICHAEL...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AND
ACCELERATE BY DAYS 3-4. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MICHAEL
AND LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL IS STEERED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH INTO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ABSORBED IN ABOUT 5 DAYS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 32.6N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 33.4N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 33.6N 43.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 33.8N 45.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 38.2N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 48.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

...MICHAEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 42.3W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST. MICHAEL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MICHAEL REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR
EYE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LARGER THAN BEFORE...AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
OUTFLOW PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE
SAME SO THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 90 KT. MICHAEL WILL MOST
LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROBABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. IN
ANY EVENT...THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER...335/5. MICHAEL SHOULD EXECUTE A HARD LEFT TURN BY TOMORROW
AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE ALL MODELS
SHOW THIS CHANGE IN TRACK...THERE ARE LARGE SPEED DISAGREEMENTS THAT
MANIFEST THEMSELVES EVEN WITHIN 24H. THESE DIFFERENCES CAUSE
MICHAEL TO EITHER COME CLOSE TO LESLIE...LIKE THE GFS...OR FOR A
MUCH SLOWER MOTION LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS AS ONLY A MID-LATITUDE
RIDGE STEERS THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT MUST BE
CONSIDERED AN UNCERTAIN PREDICTION. DESPITE THE INITIAL
DISAGREEMENTS...ALL MODELS EITHER SHOW MICHAEL AS EXTRATROPICAL BY
DAY 5...OR ABSORPTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL STAY WITH
CONTINUITY AND SHOW DISSIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 33.1N 42.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 33.6N 42.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 33.9N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 34.5N 45.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 41.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 50.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
BEEN DECREASING. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL T-NUMBERS
HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CI
NUMBER GIVEN BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT. MICHAEL COULD FLUCTUATE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEIR CURRENT STATES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
MICHAEL BY 48 HOURS...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...FASTER
WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
IF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS
SHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF.

MICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED ITS MOTION OF 335/5 KT...BUT THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-/MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION
IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/TVCA CLUSTERING AT THOSE
TIMES. THE MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS ONCE
MICHAEL IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH...EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A CASE WHERE YOU WOULD
NORMALLY EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER TIMING DIFFERENCES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 33.4N 42.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 33.8N 42.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 33.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 34.1N 45.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 35.2N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 42.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE EYE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND COLD CLOUD TOPS
SURROUND THE CENTER...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY BREAKS IN
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT
WAS LAST NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED...THEREFORE...THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85
KT.

MICHAEL STILL LIES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...IN PART ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST
OF MICHAEL. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. IN 2
TO 3 DAYS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO
NEAR 30 KT AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOL WATERS BY THEN.
THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.

MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD.
MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES
INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
MICHAEL BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE WEST AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TVCA CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 33.8N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 33.9N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 34.0N 44.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 34.6N 46.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 45.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
MORNING...THERE SEEM TO BE SOME CHANGES OCCURRING WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF MICHAEL. THE EYE HAS INCREASED IN DIAMETER FROM 10 TO 25
N MI AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...POSSIBLY
INDICATIVE OF A MIXING EVENT WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 4.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND AN AVERAGE OF
RECENT ADT VALUES IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA
AND IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE.

RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW 275/04. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF
MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
NO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS... MICHAEL SHOULD
TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE FAST-PACED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48
HOURS AND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THE WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF MICHAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WARM ENOUGH...THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR IS
ABOUT TO CHANGE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR
OVER MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE PASSES FROM
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE. ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
A NARROW LAYER IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IT COULD BE OF A
MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD INDUCE A FASTER WEAKENING THAN FORECAST. A
BRIEF REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME BEFORE MICHAEL
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET. A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND RAPIDLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD MEAN
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES FRONTAL AROUND 72
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 33.7N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 33.8N 43.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 34.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 35.1N 47.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 38.1N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE MIXING EVENT ACTIVE WITHIN THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO
BE NEAR COMPLETION....AND A TRANSFORMATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE EYE
OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD- FILLED SINCE THIS
MORNING...WITH ITS DIAMETER MEASURING 30 N MI AFTER BEING AROUND 10
N MI ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NO LONGER
SYMMETRIC...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADT CI
VALUE IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING DUE WEST SINCE THIS MORNING...AND HAS
EVEN WOBBLED A BIT SOUTH OF WEST IN RECENT HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE...A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...IS 270/04. SOUTH OF A
SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MICHAEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND THAT TIME
AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN 36-72 HOURS...AS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING
LESLIE TO RECURVE APPROACHES MICHAEL. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWING
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND TO THE RIGHT AT 72 HOURS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.

MICHAEL SHOULD LEAVE THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
LESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY OVER A NARROW LAYER
IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...AND MICHAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER ONLY
GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BY 48 HOURS HOURS ONCE MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.6N 43.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 33.6N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 34.2N 46.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 36.4N 47.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 47.2N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012

THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS EVENING INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL...WITH AN
OPENING OF THE EYE WALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT APPEARS THAT
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM A
DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND COOLER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY. SUBSEQUENTLY...
MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS...THEN TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS. MICHAEL SHOULD ULTIMATELY
BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4...OR EARLIER. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/5. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW
MICHAEL TURNING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIDGE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ATLANTIC CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS HEDGED TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 33.6N 44.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 33.8N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 34.8N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 37.3N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 40.9N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0000Z 48.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL HAS INCREASED
RECENTLY...THE EYE APPEARS LESS DISTINCT AND IT HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A
LITTLE TO 70 KT...WHICH IS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK
FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING MICHAEL CURRENTLY. THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MICHAEL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 26C AND BE
NEARING A COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW
MERGING WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR
SO...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TONIGHT...AS MICHAEL MOVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
MICHAEL...OR THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
SHORTLY AFTER 0000 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 33.5N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 34.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 36.0N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 39.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 43.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. WHILE THE EYE HAS CLEARED
AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT COOLED APPRECIABLY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC...BUT THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE
0600 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AS MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...EVEN
COOLER WATERS AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD HASTEN
THE TRANSITION OF MICHAEL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...THOUGH
RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING
NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...REPRESENTING A LONGER-TERM
AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES...IS 270/07. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
38N 46W. BEYOND THIS TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD OCCUR AS MICHAEL BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.6N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 34.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 37.5N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 41.2N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 45.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 54.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

THE EYE OF MICHAEL HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND MORE RAGGED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING AS EVIDENCED
BY THE APPROACH OF A CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH OUTFLOW OF LESLIE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...AS WELL AS RECENT
ADT CI VALUES...SUGGESTS THAT MICHAEL HAS WEAKENED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN LINE WITH THESE DATA.
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A FRONTAL WAVE JUST BEFORE 48 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL
MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE BETTER PERFORMING INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE HEADING OF MICHAEL HAS BEGUN TO QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE RIGHT
AND THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED
ON THE RECENT CENTER FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.
MICHAEL IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 39N 45W...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
THEN THE NORTH WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR
WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS MICHAEL BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A FAST-PACED
FLOW IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A RAPIDLY ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL TVCA CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 34.4N 47.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 36.2N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 39.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 44.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 49.6N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z...ABOSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. A
RATHER ASYMMETRIC SHAPE EXISTS...SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST IN THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE -60C CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
CYCLONE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN
INHIBITING COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER
WEAKENING AND CAUSE MICHAEL TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD...
MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE
LIFE-SPAN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF...
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11. A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS FROM THE NAVY FNMOC SATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE
WEBPAGE PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN DETERMINING THE 6-HOUR MOTION.
MICHAEL IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 35.3N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 37.7N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/1200Z 47.2N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 52.2N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

MICHAEL IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
FALLEN BY A T-NUMBER...AND MICHAEL IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 55 KT...WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER
SUB-26C WATERS AND REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C AND IN STRONG SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW MERGING WITH A COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING
FASTER...360/16. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS MICHAEL...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL LOW...BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED
IN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS
WEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 37.1N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 40.2N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 45.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 50.9N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT MICHAEL WAS A HURRICANE...AND
WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. IN FACT...THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MICHAEL IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 39.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 43.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 48.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MICHAEL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. MICHAEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. MICHAEL IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
BY A FRONT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHAEL ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 41.4N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/0600Z 45.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA