ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 42.2W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH DEVELOPED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HAS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER AND RELIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 30 KT SINCE ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AND
BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CAN NOT RESOLVE THE
SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES BENEATH A TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH AND THE CYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM...WHICH KEEPS THE
DEPRESSION IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR A
DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE
SHORT TERM. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE
ERODES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR BAND OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION...SUGGESTIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY LOW. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IS FORECAST TO
IMPINGE ON THE DEPRESSION. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CROSS-SECTION
ANALYSES OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT. THE ABRUPT INCREASE
IN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE WEAKENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CONSERVATIVELY
SHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/04. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ERODES THE RIDGE FURTHER. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS
AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST HWRF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 25.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 26.3N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 27.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 28.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 31.0N 44.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012

SMALL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION AND NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER
IS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST BAND. INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35
KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB/SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT.

THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT AN EASY PREDICTION AS
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
STAY AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER
WARM WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY MANY GLOBAL
MODELS TO CUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IN A FEW
DAYS...WHICH COULD CREATE A FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN FOR
INTENSIFICATION. WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...IT DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A REMNANT LOW ANYTIME SOON...AND THE NEW FORECAST NO LONGER
SHOWS THAT TRANSITION. THE LATEST PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TRACK FARTHER TO THE
LEFT THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN MORE WEAKENING THAN
SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.

BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24H OR SO AS IT
MOVES AROUND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE QUITE LIGHT AFTER THAT TIME...WITH THE
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION IN A FEW DAYS THAT COULD CAUSE A SLOW NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST AT LONG RANGE...ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TVCA MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 26.5N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 26.9N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 27.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 28.3N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 28.8N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 30.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 33.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN AREA
OF CONCENTRATED DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...HOWEVER...EXISTS ONLY ON THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB AND CIMSS ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND
2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.

MICHAEL IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
IN FACT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING. IF MICHAEL SURVIVES A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LOW FORMS SOUTH OF
THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND ALLOWS
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

MICHAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO BYPASS MICHAEL...LEAVING THE STORM WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MICHAEL MEANDERING BETWEEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN SPEED...MOST OF
THE MODELS MOVE MICHAEL ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TREND. THE NHC
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 27.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 28.5N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 29.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 29.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 30.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 31.5N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

...SMALL MICHAEL STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 43.7W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
THAT A CURVED BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 45 KT...BASED ON
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND DATA FROM AN
EARLIER PARTIAL ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 35 TO 40 KT WIND
VECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SMALL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICHAEL. AS THAT OCCURS...A NARROW
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A
REDUCTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT
A LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER THIS TOUGH
BYPASSES MICHAEL...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...IT SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 27.5N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 28.1N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 28.8N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 29.9N 42.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.9N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 33.5N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CENTRAL
CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 45 KT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER MICHAEL IS PREDICTED TO STAY MODERATE TO STRONG
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD RESULT
IN DECREASING SHEAR AND AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL IS NEAR A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW... AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA IN 48-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL THERAFTER. THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE AROUND THE EASTWARD-MOVING ANTICYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SOLUTIONS.

DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS CONFIRM THAT MICHAEL IS A VERY
SMALL TROPICAL STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 27.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 28.1N 43.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.9N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 29.6N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 30.0N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 31.2N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 32.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 33.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSATE NEAR AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER LOCATION...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF ABOUT 20 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DURING THAT TIME...ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THIS
TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE BY 48 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04...AS MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE
RESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE
TROUGH MOVES BY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND LIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 28.1N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 28.6N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 30.7N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 33.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 34.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1102 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BIT
LESS OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILT WITH HEIGHT...AND IMPROVED
CURVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS AND A 0800 UTC UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT...AT LEAST FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. HENCE...STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS
FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND IT IS BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/05. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 36 PERIOD. AFTERWARD...A RATHER ABRUPT
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF MICHAEL. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION PERSISTING THROUGH DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST...AND SPLITS THE SEAM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 28.3N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 29.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.7N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 42.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 31.0N 42.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.1N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.3N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.7N 46.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
130 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 42.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST..AND MICHAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
130 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A EYE FEATURE INDICATED IN
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED
ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT AND MICHAEL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS. THE INCREASED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE BASIS
FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.

MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1730Z 28.5N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 29.0N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 31.0N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 32.1N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.3N 45.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 34.7N 46.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 42.7W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND MICHAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

A RECENT 1818 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WEBSITE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 85
GHZ COMPOSITE AND MUCH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME
A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED
BY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT BASED ON THE
WELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
TODAY...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN OF
THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...INDICATE
THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.
THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE WELL-
DEVELOPED OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE BEGINS TO
IMPEDE THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTFLOW OF MICHAEL. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AROUND 36-48 HOURS...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL SHOW MICHAEL RESPONDING TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH BY TURNING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MICHAEL
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 28.8N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 29.3N 42.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 30.0N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 30.6N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 31.0N 41.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 32.1N 42.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 33.2N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 34.8N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...
MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
LESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME.
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
TRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A
TAD SLOWER. THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH
A LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 29.3N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[brunota2003]

Forecast to be our first major of the year!

HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0500Z 29.4N 42.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[Graham1973]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060842
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 41.7W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST TODAY...WITH SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

MICHAEL IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

MICHAEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE EYE BECOMING WARMER AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYING STRONG.
WHILE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 90 KT AT 0600 UTC...OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM ADT AND THE GOES-R HIE PRODUCT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
BETWEEN 107 AND 110 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVE AN INITIAL WIND
SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING MICHAEL THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE...
CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...OF THE SEASON. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY BEFORE
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH DROPPING TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF COOLING SSTS
AND INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE COULD WEAKEN
MICHAEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
THE NEWEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE
IN THE LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST OF THIS CYCLONE DUE TO IT
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF BOTH MICHAEL AND LESLIE.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS ON TRACK...MOVING 045/6. A TURN TO THE NORTH
AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
MICHAEL BEGINS TO BE STEERED AROUND A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN
48H AS TO WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND THE LOW...LIKE THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS...
OR IF THE RIDGE MISSES MICHAEL AND THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
MORE LIKE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK WAS MADE AT DAY 5 TO COME CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER
TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH
HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 29.6N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 30.3N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 30.9N 41.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 31.4N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 32.0N 42.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 33.1N 43.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 34.5N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 36.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL MAINTAINING CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 41.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY...WITH SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCING AROUND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY. A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS
FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT. THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
LESLIE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK
WITH TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW.
SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS
BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 30.1N 41.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 30.6N 41.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 31.2N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.9N 42.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 32.4N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.4N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 35.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 38.0N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL WEAKENS A LITTLE...
...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 41.0W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

RECENT MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE
SOME WEAKENING OF THE INNER CORE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FINAL SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES HAVE DECREASED TO 77 KT.
HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED JUST A BIT TO 95
KT IN CONSIDERATION OF THE 105 KT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. GRADUAL
WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO EITHER A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...OR THE LARGE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 5 DAYS AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/6...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE ALIGNED WITH A SIMILAR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALBEIT WITH
SIGNIFICANT FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING MORE TO A STEERING
ENVIRONMENT PRODUCED BY A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR 45W AND THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THE GFS
AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT FASTER BEYOND DAY 4 WHILE THE
REMAINING AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AGREE MORE ON A SLOWER 5-7 KT FORWARD
MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PAST 6 HOUR TRACK
FORECAST...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AT DAY 5 IN ORDER TO HEDGE CLOSER TO
THE TVCA CONSENSUS WHICH INCORPORATES THE FASTER GFDL AND GFS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 30.6N 41.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.1N 41.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 32.2N 42.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 32.8N 42.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 34.0N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 36.2N 45.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 40.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012

THE CONVECTIVE COLD TOPS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND
THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT MICHAEL POSSESSES A THIN BUT CLOSED EYEWALL. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.9/5.2. THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED A BIT TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

MICHAEL HAS FOUND ITSELF STUCK BETWEEN TWO MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...
EACH ROUGHLY EQUIDISTANT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE. THE COMPETING FLOWS AROUND THE LOWS HAVE CAUSED MICHAEL
TO SLOW DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/4 KT.
THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO CREEP NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN
AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD BY DAY 5 AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF HURRICANE LESLIE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 21Z FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS THEN
A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND FASTER BY DAY 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA.

ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS...MICHAEL SHOULD BE IN A
RELATIVELY SHEAR-FREE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
COMPLEX...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD
AFFECT MICHAEL SOONER THAN SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 ONCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
BECOMES DECIDEDLY STRONGER...AND MICHAEL COULD BE CLOSE TO BEING
EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 30.8N 40.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 31.2N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 32.3N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 34.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 36.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 43.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TCDAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE WEAKENING TREND OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
AROUND THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT
WAS LAST NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 90 KT...BUT MICHAEL COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER.

MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE STEERING FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
MICHAEL AND A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MICHAEL AND A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH OR SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
MICHAEL MOVES OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND REMAINS IN GENERALLY LOW
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WATER TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CYCLONE LOWER AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...IN PART
DUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE LESLIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF MICHAEL...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MICHAEL COULD BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.0N 40.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 31.4N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 31.8N 41.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 32.4N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 33.0N 42.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 34.3N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 45.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SMALL CHANGES WITH MICHAEL DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE EYE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT OBSCURED WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS...THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE DEEPER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
BETWEEN 90-100 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY
KEPT AT 90 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MICHAEL
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIGHT OR MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WHICH IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. A COMBINATION OF COLD WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILD TO THE EAST OF MICHAEL IN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT LONG RANGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF MICHAEL
WITH LESLIE AS THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR NOW...THE NEW FORECAST WILL ASSUME THE
CYCLONE WILL STAY MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM LESLIE AND ENDS UP ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TOO SLOW AND NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 31.2N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 31.5N 41.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 32.0N 41.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 32.7N 42.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.3N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 34.7N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 48.5N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MICHAEL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT
LESS ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE RECENT T-NUMBERS
HAVE DECREASED...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90-102
KT...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KT. THE STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING MICHAEL SLOWLY WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEGATIVE PRIMARY FACTORS BEING
SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLING WATERS. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PROBABLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE
HURRICANE COULD MOVE BRIEFLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST IN THE 48-96 HR TIME RANGE TO COME CLOSER TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST...WITH MORE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING ENOUGH
SEPARATION FROM LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL CURVES TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.4N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 31.8N 41.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 32.3N 42.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 33.1N 42.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 33.6N 43.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 35.4N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 42.0N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 52.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE