ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO this has more than a 20% shot of forming, I'd put the percentage at around 40%. For a disturbance, it's very well organized. The rotation is clear. All it needs is convective cover, and that could happen with a drop of shear and DMAX.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tolakram]

No moisture to work with, from the looks of it, just a barely visible spinning area of clouds now.

[Sanibel]

Dry air regime of 2012.

[monicaei]

Zombie storm... Is it dead yet? Or should people on the gulf coast still be watching?

[LarryWx]

Zombie storm... Is it dead yet? Or should people on the gulf coast still be watching?

I guess we're still waiting for 57 to trot out "Bones". Until then, as dead as it looks, nobody is allowed to officially proclaim it dead.

[superstareporter]

Dry air regime of 2012.

It is a beautiful thing, nothing more enjoyable than seeing a storm with potential to impact my livelihood get ripped apart by shear, and choked off by dry air. This has been a good year so far.

[Zanthe]

Dry air regime of 2012.

It is a beautiful thing, nothing more enjoyable than seeing a storm with potential to impact my livelihood get ripped apart by shear, and choked off by dry air. This has been a good year so far.

I think this is a really big thing that a lot of people don't think about when they hope for a major hurricane to hit somewhere.

[monicaei]

Dry air regime of 2012.

It is a beautiful thing, nothing more enjoyable than seeing a storm with potential to impact my livelihood get ripped apart by shear, and choked off by dry air. This has been a good year so far.

I think this is a really big thing that a lot of people don't think about when they hope for a major hurricane to hit somewhere.

Ah. Freaking. Men.

Even the slow moving Cat 1 can be catostrophic in its own way. Ask the few thousand people from Laplace and Lower Jeff... Isaac was not so much fun for them.

I'm in BR, and still have a debris pile taller than me from half an oak that DIDN'T hit the house. Some weren't so lucky. It's all fun and games til the generator needs refueling and everyones
screwed.

Eff a major, if you wish for it, you have never lived it. Take that to the bank. The "itching for a disaster" only comes from people who see it on tv. No one wants to be here the days or weeks after.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Ah. Freaking. Men.

Even the slow moving Cat 1 can be catostrophic in its own way. Ask the few thousand people from Laplace and Lower Jeff... Isaac was not so much fun for them.

I'm in BR, and still have a debris pile taller than me from half an oak that DIDN'T hit the house. Some weren't so lucky. It's all fun and games til the generator needs refueling and everyones
screwed.

Eff a major, if you wish for it, you have never lived it. Take that to the bank. The "itching for a disaster" only comes from people who see it on tv. No one wants to be here the days or weeks after.

Preach it brother! I am right there with you.

[Sanibel]

Replacing Lanai screens is a pain.


I'm worried this early chill and dry will be rebounded with one good storm.

[ROCK]

Poof!!

[LaBreeze]

How far is this front expected to push? Into the GOM? Sometimes things spin up along fronts that only make it into the GOM - just wondering and waiting for the lower humidities.

[northjaxpro]

How far is this front expected to push? Into the GOM? Sometimes things spin up along fronts that only make it into the GOM - just wondering and waiting for the lower humidities.

This current front is forecast to stall out across South Florida and across through the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. Yes, sometimes the tail-end of fronts this time of year which stall-out over the Gulf of Mexico can spawn development of tropical cyclones if the upper level environment is conducive. It is something to monitor next week, but for the time being no hint of such event happening from the models. But, things can change very quickly and models often do not pick up on systems developing. Michael is a good example of this that comes to mind and Humberto as tropical cyclones which can develop suddenly and intensify rapidly before the models pick up on them.

[wxman57]

Bones has an announcement:

[underthwx]

poof...did i spell that right Rock?

[WeatherGuesser]

Anybody see the story on the ship wreck uncovered Ft. Morgan?

[Emmett_Brown]

Un-poof. Looks better the last few frames. It has run out of time though, so it won't matter.

[cycloneye]

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902012.ren
FSTDA
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040
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0000
201209081658
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[hurricanes1234]

Goodbye 90L. Destroyed by harsh conditions. That's good though, because Florida would have gotten a stronger system.

[Frank2]

Could be that El Nino is settling in or the Atlantic is like the 1981 season...

Frank2