ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[crownweather]

First model plots on Invest 90L.



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[northjaxpro]

Definitely a broad circulation just off the coast of Mobile. This will sink south/southwest into the Gulf of Mexico and I look for the probabilities to increase in time of this developing into a tropical cyclone. This entity has a window of opportunity to develop over the next 72 hours or so into a TD or TS. It will meander around in the GOM in a weak steering flow until Friday. Models are depicting a potent shortwave will drop southeast down from Canada this weekend to pick up whatever becomes of this feature in the GOM.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Anthysteg00]

Can someone show new GFS run?

[bonjourno]

Here's the current SFWMD spaghetti models, with the 6z GFS and ensembles.


So it would appear a pretty tight consensus on somewhere between the Steinhatchee River on the north end and the Spring Hill area on the southern end.

[rainstorm]

personally i think once it get moving it will head ne up the coast rather than due east.

[Anthysteg00]

Aren't initial model plots almost always inaccurate? Can this landfall on NGOM?

[vbhoutex]

personally i think once it get moving it will head ne up the coast rather than due east.

Why? What is your reasoning when all the models say differently?

[bonjourno]

Aren't initial model plots almost always inaccurate? Can this landfall on NGOM?

Not a pro met or anything, but I would think because the synoptics are pretty well defined around this little thing, and the fact that it only has a few days until its projected landfall, AND the fact that the several models we've gotten (though initial) are all in relative agreement -- that would lead me to believe that it's probably going to end up where the map shows at the moment.

Being cautious, I would think the extreme overall range for landfall could be anywhere from Apalachicola to Tampa though.

The posts in this forum -- including the above -- are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS likes it and for once looks decent across the board. Usually its spinning up all kinds or stuff and merging it....this looks veru nice...

[SouthFLTropics]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012090512&set=Tropical

NOGAPS likes it and for once looks decent across the board. Usually its spinning up all kinds or stuff and merging it....this looks veru nice...

I know it's NOGAPS but that is a crazy run right there...Near the end it looks like it loops back around is heading back for Florida again. Isaac's reincarnation can't get enough of the Sunshine State.

SFT

[HurricaneBelle]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012090512&set=Tropical

NOGAPS likes it and for once looks decent across the board. Usually its spinning up all kinds or stuff and merging it....this looks veru nice...

I love the part at the end where it brings Michael westward and then causes 90L to Fujiwhara back SW toward the SE US Coastline.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC tracks thru the FLA Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[BigA]

12z CMC tracks thru the FLA Penninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And then builds the high in, sending it back westward, similar to the NOGAPS. If the UKMET and/or ECMWF bite, color me intrigued.

[rainstorm]

CMC is pretty much what im thinking. IF that happens 90L has the potential to be quite interesting. im not buying the gfs just blasting it east and merging it withthe front.

[chaser1]

CMC is pretty much what im thinking. IF that happens 90L has the potential to be quite interesting. im not buying the gfs just blasting it east and merging it withthe front.

Oh, my stomach is NOT feeling well. I am actually considering a solution favoring Nogaps and CMC over the GFS?? The long term Nogaps seems crazy (starting around the 168 hour point) with Isaac, er...I mean possibly Nadine heading Southwest towards Jax. Then again I just looked at the 12Z GFS 500mb flow and though not quite that soon, even the GFS eventually (about 200hr) shows a strong building ridge off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard that creates a steering flow towards the southwest. On that note however, the 12Z GFS has suddenly gone bonkers with the repetative runs of a new wave off Africa now suddently getting swallowed up by a mid Atlantic trough despite that the troughs energy seems to be rapidly pulling away and high pressure remaining bridged across the Atlantic!?

Hey, here's a thought! Perhaps (potential) Nadine develops, crosses Florida into the Atlantic, then gets entirely sheared with the mid level energy moving out with the departing short wave, AND THEN (per Nogaps) Oscar develops and heads southwestward towards Jax! - Now, that would be worth writing about.

[ROCK]

the CMC is very close to missing the trof all together...the 12Z GFS shows another scenario of it missing the trof and sending it back west once over FL....

12Z EURO shows it getting caught up with the trof and up the EC...

[Stormcenter]

Oh no not again, not another storm "missing" a trough.

the CMC is very close to missing the trof all together...the 12Z GFS shows another scenario of it missing the trof and sending it back west once over FL....

12Z EURO shows it getting caught up with the trof and up the EC...

[SootyTern]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2012090512&set=Tropical

NOGAPS likes it and for once looks decent across the board. Usually its spinning up all kinds or stuff and merging it....this looks veru nice...

I know it's NOGAPS but that is a crazy run right there...Near the end it looks like it loops back around is heading back for Florida again. Isaac's reincarnation can't get enough of the Sunshine State.

SFT

I think Michael said something rude to possible Nadine like 'GET OUT of my ocean' and she turned tail and ran back the way she came

[Anthysteg00]

Is it just me or is it too early to assume anything at this point? This far out didn't models have Isaac riding the big bend area?

[Stormcenter]

They sure did.

Is it just me or is it too early to assume anything at this point? This far out didn't models have Isaac riding the big bend area?