ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:04 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209081200
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012090806, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012090712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 157W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 173W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090800, , BEST, 0, 141N, 191W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2012090806, , BEST, 0, 144N, 207W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113620&start=0
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#2 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:15 am

So based on its current position what are your thoughts on where it may end up? I know it's early but just want to get your thoughts on it cycloneye.
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Re:

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:40 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:So based on its current position what are your thoughts on where it may end up? I know it's early but just want to get your thoughts on it cycloneye.


Based on the initial positions of the surface low is a real posibbility that it will miss the Islands.After that I wont venture as is too far away in time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 8:18 am

The Atlantic ridge between Africa and the eastern Caribbean is fairly weak now. Anything trying to develop in the eastern Atlantic will probably recurve east of the Caribbean, which is what I expect this disturbance will do.
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#5 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 08, 2012 9:47 am

Image

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby wolfpack2105 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:01 am

Hey guys! I'm new here, but have always had an extreme interest in storms and weather in general. This specific storm I have a personal interest in. I am flying from Charlotte, NC to Port Canaveral, FL on September 16th to begin a 7 day cruise through the Caribbean for my Honeymoon. Therefore, as you can tell...this storm has peaked my interest. I am very happy to hear so many say they believe this will be an entirely over water event. I look forward to more information and to joining your storm2k community.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:05 am

Welcome to STORM2K!! We look forward to your contributions to the discussions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:07 am

wolfpack2105 wrote:Hey guys! I'm new here, but have always had an extreme interest in storms and weather in general. This specific storm I have a personal interest in. I am flying from Charlotte, NC to Port Canaveral, FL on September 16th to begin a 7 day cruise through the Caribbean for my Honeymoon. Therefore, as you can tell...this storm has peaked my interest. I am very happy to hear so many say they believe this will be an entirely over water event. I look forward to more information and to joining your storm2k community.


First ,welcome to Storm2k and enjoy all the forums that we have. About this future storm, all indications are that it will recurve and not be a threat to the Caribbean. However,keep visiting this thread just in case there are changes to that.

This is off-topic=So far the models dont have a storm forming in the Western Caribbean or SW Caribbean by the time your cruise starts on the 16th but again,in this case visit Talking Tropics forum to see if there are going to be changes about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:16 am

wolfpack2105 wrote:Hey guys! I'm new here, but have always had an extreme interest in storms and weather in general. This specific storm I have a personal interest in. I am flying from Charlotte, NC to Port Canaveral, FL on September 16th to begin a 7 day cruise through the Caribbean for my Honeymoon. Therefore, as you can tell...this storm has peaked my interest. I am very happy to hear so many say they believe this will be an entirely over water event. I look forward to more information and to joining your storm2k community.

we know more by next thur
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby wolfpack2105 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:17 am

I look forward to coming back and keeping up with this system. I looked two days ago and was intrigued that there seemed to be nothing. Then I look yesterday and bam, there it is, Invest 91L. Oh well...I'll just pray she becomes a Cat 5 and circles around out in the Atlantic for a few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:23 am

12z Best Track came out very late.

AL, 91, 2012090812, , BEST, 0, 145N, 210W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:48 pm

Up to 40%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:31 pm

wolfpack2105 wrote:I look forward to coming back and keeping up with this system. I looked two days ago and was intrigued that there seemed to be nothing. Then I look yesterday and bam, there it is, Invest 91L. Oh well...I'll just pray she becomes a Cat 5 and circles around out in the Atlantic for a few days.


cat 5 hurricanes always hit land for some reason, they have a strange addition to it :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:42 pm

18z Best Track changed frrom Disturbance to Low and pressure is down to 1008 mbs.

AL, 91, 2012090818, , BEST, 0, 143N, 228W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:14 pm

14.5N is pretty high in lat.....with Lesile and Mike taking their sweet time to eject this has recurve written all over it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby wolfpack2105 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:32 pm

YAY, haha

I do have a question for the more experienced folks on the board though. How long, on average, does it take a system to get from the African coast to any type of landfall on the caribbean islands/contiguous US? I understand that there are TONS of variables that could affect this...im just looking for a ballpark figure. Thanks in advance
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#17 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:09 pm

About a week for the Caribbean, and about 2 weeks for East Coast recurves.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:43 pm

Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby greenkat » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:57 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3961/i91.png


How do you make those? I would like to take a try myself :)
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:18 pm

greenkat wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3961/i91.png


How do you make those? I would like to take a try myself :)

Hold on, give me a sec I'll edit this out in 5 minutes.

EDIT:Hey greencat, you need MS paint, and heres the link for pictures, just right click on them and Save As...
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481
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