ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#81 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:59 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Alright, here’s my track. I’m not too bullish on intensity, so I stop at Cat2 strength. Shifted west on the ground it stays weak and doesn’t become a hurricane before 55W. Anyone want to show their tracks?
http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/2840/td13.png


Shallow BAM (BAMS) keeps it east of 55W. You're even west of CLIPPER:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#82 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:43 pm

I am more of a fan of this missing the trough and then strengthening IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#83 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:48 pm

8 PM TWO

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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#84 Postby greenkat » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:23 pm

Looks to me like it's already a TD... pretty sure NHC will upgrade it at 11:00 advisory.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#85 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:30 pm

They Cancelled it-still 91L

14m Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Renumbering only a prelim step, does not guarantee advisories. MT @Eyestorm_Eric: @NHCDirector Why "invest_RENUMBER_al142012..." deleted?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#86 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:38 pm

00z Best Track. Let's see if they renumber it or not in this 00z update.

AL, 91, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 410W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#87 Postby Fego » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:37 am

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#88 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:42 am

Remains unchanged:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#89 Postby Fego » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:48 am

I guess a few more hours, with no land to threat, is not problem at all. 5:00 am is a sure bet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#90 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 4:04 am

Fego wrote:I guess a few more hours, with no land to threat, is not problem at all. 5:00 am is a sure bet.

Nothing at 5am. Wonder what is holding them back from upgrading...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#91 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:32 am

Too little thunderstorm activity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#92 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:51 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ADVISORIES ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING
.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
Last edited by Florida1118 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#93 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:52 am

It's got to be Nadine. Looking at vis. loop. It's definitely a depression or storm. I bet Nadine.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#94 Postby thetraveler » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:58 am

She looks a little nekkid but definitely has the spin. Looks like a little wobble to the north in the last 3 frames of the above satelite images
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#95 Postby HenkL » Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:03 am

Best track at 12Z:

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#96 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:56 am

TD now official, if anyone's interested.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#97 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:57 am

AnnularCane wrote:TD now official, if anyone's interested.


Doesn't appear so.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Discussion

#98 Postby Macrocane » Tue Sep 11, 2012 10:06 am

I'm interested :wink: exposed center, but at least looks healthy and is surrounded by some convection. Intensity could be interesting given how hard it has been to forectast it this year.
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#99 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 11, 2012 10:10 am

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT NOT A THREAT TO LAND...

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 16.3°N 43.1°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Discussion

#100 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 11, 2012 10:54 am

It appears that the Global Hawk took off from Wallops Island, VA this morning enroute TD 14 to drop a number of dropsondes:

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2012/09/11 ... 1-12-2012/
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