ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

AL, 91, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO

Not a TD yet.

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,

Hmmm....

That just changed after I posted the initial update.

[Florida1118]

AL, 91, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO

Not a TD yet.

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,

Hmmm....

That just changed after I posted the initial update.

Yep. Looks like TD14 at 11am.

[Frank2]

It's 1981 all over again - that season had many right-turning hurricanes, each one turning northward a bit further east that the previous one...

Similar to Isaac when it passed Southern Florida, we had one very wet system that year (Dennis - I flew into that one), and aside from that each subsequent hurricane turned into the Central Atlantic due to a long-term weakness in the ridge west of 50W...

Frank2

[tolakram]

Not so fast says the NHC. Back to Invest 91 after a renumber 20 minutes earlier.

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al142012_al912012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209101416
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
FOURTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, TD, O, 2012091012, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL912012

[tolakram]

Looks good. Saved Loop.

[Extratropical94]

Not so fast says the NHC. Back to Invest 91 after a renumber 20 minutes earlier.

That´s already the third time this season.
I cannot recall so many re-renumbers last year.

[AnnularCane]

I hate when that happens. I got a little excited when I saw 91L missing from the graphic and was just waiting for the inevitable renumber. Guess I will be waiting longer.

[SFLcane]

It's 1981 all over again - that season had many right-turning hurricanes, each one turning northward a bit further east that the previous one...

Similar to Isaac when it passed Southern Florida, we had one very wet system that year (Dennis - I flew into that one), and aside from that each subsequent hurricane turned into the Central Atlantic due to a long-term weakness in the ridge west of 50W...

Frank2

Frank in terms of cv stroms a good chunk mostly recurve anyway. Everything has to line up just right for them to make the trek across. Puts in perspective atleast for me how special 04 and 05 were.

[Blown Away]

It's 1981 all over again - that season had many right-turning hurricanes, each one turning northward a bit further east that the previous one...

Similar to Isaac when it passed Southern Florida, we had one very wet system that year (Dennis - I flew into that one), and aside from that each subsequent hurricane turned into the Central Atlantic due to a long-term weakness in the ridge west of 50W...

Frank2

Frank in terms of cv stroms a good chunk mostly recurve anyway. Everything has to line up just right for them to make the trek across. Puts in perspective atleast for me how special 04 and 05 were.

Thought the activity was supposed to be homebrew's and MDR was to be quiet this year?

[wxman57]

Thought the activity was supposed to be homebrew's and MDR was to be quiet this year?

MDR has been extremely quiet this year - not a single hurricane between Africa and the western Caribbean south of 20N. Only a few disorganized tropical storms in the MDR. It's clear that the MDR is quite hostile this year, as had been predicted pre-seaon. What can't be determined pre-season is the possibility of sheared, weak, short-lived tropical storms that attempt to get going in the region.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE WELL
ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[wxman57]

Looks better organized than other systems which were named this year (at times). Not sure why they're reluctant to pull the trigger. Maybe they see no threat to land and don't want to be issuing advisories on 3 storms at once? Just a guess. We're certainly not concerned about it and won't be issuing any advisories even if it is named.

[Blown Away]

Thought the activity was supposed to be homebrew's and MDR was to be quiet this year?

MDR has been extremely quiet this year - not a single hurricane between Africa and the western Caribbean south of 20N. Only a few disorganized tropical storms in the MDR. It's clear that the MDR is quite hostile this year, as had been predicted pre-seaon. What can't be determined pre-season is the possibility of sheared, weak, short-lived tropical storms that attempt to get going in the region.

Thanks. I guess I misunderstood "quiet" b/c the majority have developed in the MDR and then gained most of the strength as they move north.

[knotimpaired]

While I sit back and watch 91L I also remember all of our previous years and realize that everyone on this board loves to create disasters before they happen.

Chill everyone. If it does happen, you will know it. If it does not, you will look silly.

[otowntiger]

It's 1981 all over again - that season had many right-turning hurricanes, each one turning northward a bit further east that the previous one...

Similar to Isaac when it passed Southern Florida, we had one very wet system that year (Dennis - I flew into that one), and aside from that each subsequent hurricane turned into the Central Atlantic due to a long-term weakness in the ridge west of 50W...

Frank2

I remember that year as a kid when kept track on my handy-dandy tracking chart. I kinda got frustrated at the storms as they would start out heading west at the first sign of a gain in latitude I would go ahead and draw a line showing it re-curving and heading back northeast and sure enough they would follow that path.

[hipshot]

Pardon if this has been explained before but what does the acronym "MDR" represent?

Thanks

[Extratropical94]

Pardon if this has been explained before but what does the acronym "MDR" represent?

Thanks

MDR stands for Main Development Region, the area between the Leewards and the Cape Verde Islands (sometimes including the Eastern Carribean) south of 20 degrees latitude.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting that the Global Hawk will go starting on Tuesday. Does anyone has a photo of it?

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (AL91)
FLIGHT ONE --NASA 872--
A. 11/1430Z
B. NA872 0214A AL91 SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 11/1015Z
D. 18N 45W
E. 11/1430Z TO 12/0530Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 25.6N 53.7W LAWNMOWER WITH 6 NORTH-SOUTH
LEGS BETWEEN 52W TO 39W.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL
HAWK MISSION AROUND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSPECT AL91.

[wxman57]

Just Google "global hawk" and there are lots of pictures of it. Looks like this:



It was used to take obs around Leslie:
http://www.suasnews.com/2012/09/18651/n ... -atlantic/

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Alright, here’s my track. I’m not too bullish on intensity, so I stop at Cat2 strength. Shifted west on the ground it stays weak and doesn’t become a hurricane before 55W. Anyone want to show their tracks?