ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[greenkat]

Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3961/i91.png

How do you make those? I would like to take a try myself

Hold on, give me a sec I'll edit this out in 5 minutes.

EDIT:Hey greencat, you need MS paint, and heres the link for pictures, just right click on them and Save As...
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113481

Thanks alot!

[greenkat]

My opinion

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

It remains at 40% on 8 PM TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Which is it? No consensus between 00z Best Track and SSD Dvorak.

AL, 91, 2012090900, , BEST, 0, 145N, 249W, 25, 1008, LO

09/0000 UTC 16.0N 25.2W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic

[sharoncapecod]

Hello everyone! I'm new here but have been reading your posts for a while. Learning alot from them. I have been extremely fascinated by weather for a long time and even more since moving to Cape Cod! Hope to be able to join your discussions soon with my own knowledge!

[katenjay]

Hi everyone! I have read that several of you think this system might recurve, which is what I am hoping for as well. How long do you think we might potentially be dealing with this system? I am going to Jamaica on the 20th and I am hoping this will not affect my travel plans. Keeping fingers crossed!

[cycloneye]

Hello everyone! I'm new here but have been reading your posts for a while. Learning alot from them. I have been extremely fascinated by weather for a long time and even more since moving to Cape Cod! Hope to be able to join your discussions soon with my own knowledge!

Welcome to Storm2k and enjoy all the forums that we have. If you have any question(s),dont hesitate to ask.

[DukeDevil91]

This, IMO, is the most logical path.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

This is the 8 AM Discussion that came out before the TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N25W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15N27W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak T numbers go up.

09/1200 UTC 15.0N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[tolakram]

Latest Loop

[hurricanes1234]

Convection literally blew away.

[floridasun78]

it look like dry air hitting it

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track came out very late.

AL, 91, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 149N, 278W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like it may be reforming at about 14.5N 32.5W or may be where the best MLC is far removed from the circulation they're following which if true may not allow for recurvature due to being a weaker system


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

will this invest ever get to be td?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
HINDER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Will this be the next poof of the season? I must admit, though, there haven't been much poofs in the Atlantic this year - more poofs and busts have been occurring in the Pacific.

[Florida1118]

Will this be the next poof of the season? I must admit, though, there haven't been much poofs in the Atlantic this year - more poofs and busts have been occurring in the Pacific.

Nothing has indicated its a poof. Did it lose its convection? Yes, But give it time.

[brunota2003]

Welcome to Hurricane Season, Global Hawk!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091640
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 09 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL
HAWK MISSION AROUND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSPECT AL91.
3. REMARK: 09/1800Z FIX MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE CANCELED BY NHC AT 09/0900Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF