ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Will this be the next poof of the season? I must admit, though, there haven't been much poofs in the Atlantic this year - more poofs and busts have been occurring in the Pacific.

Nothing has indicated its a poof. Did it lose its convection? Yes, But give it time.

I did not say that it would dissipate.

[floridasun78]

did nhc remove 91l? because not on .sfwmd.any more

[greenkat]

This, IMO, is the most logical path.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Are you serious?!?

[floridasun78]

09/1745 UTC 15.5N 32.5W TOO WEAK 91L

[floridasun78]

can one check see nhc drop 91l ty? sfwmd drop it

[cycloneye]

can one check see nhc drop 91l ty? sfwmd drop it

ATCF has not dropped 91L. The cause of maybe dropping on some sites may be that there has not been an update at 18z,but it does not mean they dropped it.


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

can one check see nhc drop 91l ty? sfwmd drop it

ATCF has not dropped 91L. The cause of maybe dropping on some sites may be that there has not been an update at 18z,but it does not mean they dropped it.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Finnally,ATCF made the 18z Best Track update.

AL, 91, 2012090918, , BEST, 0, 154N, 314W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[galaxy401]

I noticed the best tracks for this system have been coming out later than usual. Anyone know why?

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE...DRY
AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 91, 2012091000, , BEST, 0, 150N, 336W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

This is looking good tonight. Once it gets rid of the dry air,it will have a free sailing to develop. SSD floater is up.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Extratropical94]

Up to 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[USTropics]

Looking pretty good this morning on first visible image:

[MJS1]

Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3961/i91.png

Interesting that just before it curves out to sea, you drop the disturbance s/w...why?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Watch for this to recurve at 60W. Intensity is just non-educated guessing.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3961/i91.png

Interesting that just before it curves out to sea, you drop the disturbance s/w...why?

When drawing with a penicil in paint, things are not always the steadiest. I'm sorry about that.

[Florida1118]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 855 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Beat you by a hair Cycloneye

[CrazyC83]

You just never know so far out - storms can sometimes miss troughs, especially if they stay weak initially (and I believe this one might do that too and strengthen later)

[LarryWx]

Unfortunately, for those who want some excitement out of this as far as getting close to land, this quick development almost guarantees it will be a fish. For those not wanting a threat, this is good
news.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 91, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO

Not a TD yet.

[Florida1118]

AL, 91, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO

Not a TD yet.

AL, 14, 2012091012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 374W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,

Hmmm....