WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:31 am

Image

7.5N-138.0E or East of Palau...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 09, 2012 11:34 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

7.5N-138.0E or East of Palau...

This picture is too small.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:09 pm

Nogaps now showing some development out of this system. going NE then N the NW http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:09 pm

Upgraded to Medium.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N 137.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 091622Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A defined LLCC AND A 091234Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU INDICATE STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED, SLP NEAR 1007.5MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP
DECREASE OF 1 MB, INDICATIVE OF THE SYSTEM'S IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION YET
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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#5 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:16 pm

GFS, CMC and UKMET also develop this storm, will likely be the next player out here!
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD (INVEST 98W)

#6 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:00 pm

JMA now has this area stamped as a Tropical Depression on there surface chart. Some really rapid growth through the over night hours was seen here.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/09/10/tropical-depression-forms-near-the-philippines-10-sep-2012/

I put a video together, its at this link here. Also going to try to follow this through out the day as it still grows.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 09, 2012 11:20 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 100244
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1244 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2012

PMZ161-171-101600-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1244 PM CHST MON SEP 10 2012

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR...

AT 1200 PM CHST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SURROUNDING A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 136 DEGREES EAST
LONGITUDE. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS PALAU AND
YAP TOWARD MINDANAO. WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE OF 5 TO 6
FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY IF SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ADDITIONALLY.

KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52 PGUM FOR DETAILS ON
EXPECTED WEATHER FOR KOROR PALAU AND YAP.

$$

AYDLETT
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#8 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 09, 2012 11:49 pm

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 135E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#9 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:13 am

another run from euro i can't agree with...at least intensity-wise... I'd say this has a good chance of becoming a major player in WPAC. My bet is on GFS at this point. Oh, and I noticed that "other" one in SCS being shown by Euro and GFS. If ever it develops, I wonder if there will be some complex setup in the future just like what happened with Tembin and Bolaven.



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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#10 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:36 am

dexterlabio wrote:another run from euro i can't agree with...at least intensity-wise... I'd say this has a good chance of becoming a major player in WPAC. My bet is on GFS at this point. Oh, and I noticed that "other" one in SCS being shown by Euro and GFS. If ever it develops, I wonder if there will be some complex setup in the future just like what happened with Tembin and Bolaven.


I honestly think it's best to ignore ECMWF for the rest of the season in terms of spotting storm formation, it's been useless really so far. Once the storms have formed and the model initialises them correctly then it seems OK. There must have been changes made to the model which have thrown it off.

I agree with you on GFS too, that's my bet!
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#11 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:47 am

Euro was very good back in 2009, even at mid or long-range forecasts. Just, what happened?? GFS for me is doing very well this year, though sometimes it tends to underestimate the strength of STR but not too much.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#12 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:50 am

hahaha, yeah, ecmwf can also get an off game, gfs is the most reliable at this point in time,they even forcasted tembin to make a big turn many days prior to its landfall in Taiwan. haha
after all, there is no perfect forecast, and that makes meteorology more exciting
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#13 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:56 am

still wait and see... :lol: speaking of GFS, this is the latest model forecast tracks I could find.

Image
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#14 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:57 am

GFS has been extremely bullish on this compared to the others, but I do see the UKM is jumping on board and so is the CMC (if you take that as a good tropical model) but none the less conditions are ripe and its still spinning there vice falling apart today. I think tomorrow we will defiantly have a clearer picture.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#15 Postby Meow » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:39 am

TCFA

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 135.7E TO 14.2N 133.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
136.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTH EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE NEAR THE CENTER. A 101101Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC WITH OUTER BANDS IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT 98W IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111400Z.//
NNNN
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#16 Postby Meow » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:46 am

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 101200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 101200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#17 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:28 am

Image

looks like we might see our 17th tropical cyclone of the season based on these dvorak *estimates*...

TPPN10 PGTW 101507

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS



TXPQ24 KNES 101512
TCSWNP


F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:07 am

Image

despite the impressive structure of this system, euro is barely showing anything...can this system proved them wrong and possibly intensify to a strong system?

on a side note, euro develops another system in the south china sea before weakening west of luzon...
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#19 Postby Meow » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:12 am

euro6208 wrote:despite the impressive structure of this system, euro is barely showing anything...can this system proved them wrong and possibly intensify to a strong system?


The ECMWF always underestimated strong typhoons in this year when they were weak.
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Re: WPAC: JMA TD ( INVEST 98W )

#20 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 10, 2012 12:09 pm

the phase of development of this system is really impressive..we may see SANBA by tomorrow morning. even though Euro is still vague about this..
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