WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

early morning visible of a 150 knots beautiful Monster

[CrazyC83]

Best looking storm this year for sure anywhere!

What was the last Cat 5 globally?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'm an amateur, but look at the upper level low(I think) in the water vapor imagery. Could this weaken Sanba?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-wv.html

[mrbagyo]

solidity is the best policy, this system is insane,,,here is a vapor image of MODIS

[Macrocane]

Best looking storm this year for sure anywhere!

What was the last Cat 5 globally?

Last one was typhoon Nanmadol last year but Sanba is the storngest cyclone worldwide since 2010 Megi.

[Weatherguy173]

I'm an amateur, but look at the upper level low(I think) in the water vapor imagery. Could this weaken Sanba?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-wv.html

i don't think that the storm will be greatly affected because the upper level low has been there throughout some of the strengthening process. the veterans are also predicting this thing to strengthen further. so in the end, my answer is no, i don't think it will weaken Sanba.

[stormympt]

early morning visible of a 150 knots beautiful Monster
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/6527 ... isible.jpg

This pic can´t be from early morning hours...if you check it right you´ll notice the sun is iluminating a portion of the Wrn Eyewall, so, this should be an afternoon pic.

[cycloneye]

This is the morning visible image at the correct time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It appears the storm has leveled off in intensity and I may venture off to say it has reached its peak intensity. Microwave imagery reveals it will soon undergo an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Nonetheless, Sanba remains an extremely well-defined tropical cyclone.

[hurricanes1234]

The pressure could be below 900 mbar all now. Does anyone have the latest pressure readings or Dvorak estimates?

↑ Not an official forecast!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The pressure could be below 900 mbar all now. Does anyone have the latest pressure readings or Dvorak estimates?

↑ Not an official forecast!

SAB is at 898 millibars and UW-CIMSS is at 903 millibars.

[hurricanes1234]

The pressure could be below 900 mbar all now. Does anyone have the latest pressure readings or Dvorak estimates?

↑ Not an official forecast!

SAB is at 898 millibars and UW-CIMSS is at 903 millibars.

I would go with 898 mbar. Does anyone else pick 898 mbar?

[cycloneye]

I think we will see soon posts from Chaser James (Typhoon Hunter) as he will be in Okinawa.

[keitheyleen]

is it still strong when it will hit okinawa? i remember when bolaven hit us it weakens so we we're kinda disappointed cuz everybody say bolaven was the strongest typhoon in 13years.. when bolaven came we we're bored didnt see much action compare to songda (i think 2010).. i guess it depends on the location

[Typhoon Hunter]

Due to arrive in Okinawa tonight at 8pm. Sanba is stunning, jaw dropping storm.

I'm sure it will weaken some before passing the Okinawa area but it could still be a very formidable storm, even by Okinawa's standards.

Bolaven was an anomaly, it had a very shallow pressure gradient due to its massive size hence the winds weren't too bad - Sanba on the other hand is an entirely different beast!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and local government products.

[euro6208]

WOW! an absolutely amazing typhoon...a category 5 too!


WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131821Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC 180 NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND A 18 NM ROUND EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
IMAGERY WITH VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD CHANNEL,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT AS WELL AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW (LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU) WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 60-70 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 17W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 70 KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY; THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 140 TO 155 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE 13/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN CHINA. IT ALSO SHOWS A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CHINA AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
INFLUENCE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR IS WEAKENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT WESTWARD INFLUENCE, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN S-SHAPED
TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED
ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODELS. AT TAU 48, THERE IS ONLY A
65 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. STY 17W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STY
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST WITH TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
NEAR TAU 72, STY 17W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE POLEWARD, WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

[keitheyleen]

sounds like fun heheh thank you im glad you will visit okinawa its cloudy here right now at 10am..

Due to arrive in Okinawa tonight at 8pm. Sanba is stunning, jaw dropping storm.

I'm sure it will weaken some before passing the Okinawa area but it could still be a very formidable storm, even by Okinawa's standards.

Bolaven was an anomaly, it had a very shallow pressure gradient due to its massive size hence the winds weren't too bad - Sanba on the other hand is an entirely different beast!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and local government products.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 902.9mb/155.0kt




looks like it has leveled off...

[dexterlabio]

we'll see if the warming tops around the eye is only temporary...but still this monster impressed me... you don't see that kind of typhoon very often...

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Sanba at 150 knots!


WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 40.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 49.3N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 129.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC
190-200 NM CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN 18 NM EYE. A
132138Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE BEGINNING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH
COULD SIGNAL AN IMPENDING WEAKENING TREND. DVORAK DATA-T ESTIMATES
HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 140 KNOTS; HOWEVER, CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED AS HIGH AS 155 KNOTS, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS. THERE IS VERY GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD CHANNEL, ENHANCED BY THE TUTT AS WELL AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW
(LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU) WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 60-70 KNOT
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 17W HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 60 KNOT INCREASE SINCE
13/00Z. THE 13/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER EASTERN CHINA. IT
ALSO SHOWS A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AND STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CHINA AND THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. THE 14/00Z MINAMIDAITO-JIMA SOUNDING ALSO PROVIDES
FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE STR REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVELS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
INFLUENCE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR IS WEAKENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT WESTWARD INFLUENCE, WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN S-SHAPED
TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED
ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODELS. AT TAU 48, THERE IS ONLY A
63 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. STY 17W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STY
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST WITH TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, STY 17W WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD, WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96.//
NNNN