WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

tembin-bolaven part 2?

Whats is that system west of the Philippines?

euro develops a tropical cyclone doing a loop in the south china sea before trekking west towards hainan island...

[euro6208]

banding type eye appearing...

[cycloneye]

TH,are you going to Okinawa to chase Sanba? By the way,I haven't seen the member that is there (Infdidoll) posting about how things are going in terms of preparations. Hopefully,we see her soon here.

[euro6208]

TH,are you going to Okinawa to chase Sanba? By the way,I haven't seen the member that is there (Infdidoll) posting about how things are going in terms of preparations. Hopefully,we see her soon here.

unfortunately, Infdidoll moved back to the states (Virginia) and now there is no one posting from okinawa...sad huh? it would be a miracle to have a local from that island posting since it's mostly military...

[cycloneye]

TH,are you going to Okinawa to chase Sanba? By the way,I haven't seen the member that is there (Infdidoll) posting about how things are going in terms of preparations. Hopefully,we see her soon here.

unfortunately, Infdidoll moved back to the states (Virginia) and now there is no one posting from okinawa...sad huh? it would be a miracle to have a local from that island posting since it's mostly military...

Thank you for letting me know of the move.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'll post from Okinawa! If it looks like hitting the islands I'll be there for it.

JMA underestimating strength of this, as Euro pointed out banding eye forming nicely now and Dvorak up to T4.0 from KNES.

[euro6208]

it looks like it's rapidly intensifying...and could be well above typhoon strength...





WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO ALL
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 112328Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE HAS FORMED WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES
AND PGTW. POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
A REGION OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A POINT
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF 17W. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. DUE TO THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE
IN INITIAL INTENSITY, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED THROUGH
TAU 72. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. AS THE STEERING REGIME OF
17W TRANSITIONS FROM THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF JAPAN, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY NEAR TAU 36. 17W SHOULD RESUME
A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SANBA IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 17W WILL BEGIN TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AT THE 120 HOUR
POINT AND BEGIN RECURVING SOUTH OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY RECURVES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES,
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE TAU 72, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, THE LEFT OUTLIER. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO SPREAD SLIGHTLY, WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WEST OF OKINAWA AND INTO THE YELLOE SEA. NOGAPS AND GFS FAVOR
A MORE EASTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND IS JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS
HIGH THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW AFTERWARDS AS GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD UP
TO 250 NM.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[img][/img]
tembin-bolaven part 2?

Whats is that system west of the Philippines?

Nogaps also showing the same scenario and both will be significant storms,
in my eyes, SANBA is now a typhoon(cat 1).

[dexterlabio]

i like how it is developing quickly...but not liking the fact that it is to affect the same areas already affected by Tembin and Bolaven last month.

[dexterlabio]

Whats is that system west of the Philippines?

Nogaps also showing the same scenario and both will be significant storms,
in my eyes, SANBA is now a typhoon(cat 1).

I agree with the GFS/ECMWF solution. With the fast development of Sanba, it might get too strong that it could affect the phantom system about to form in SCS. It may develop into a weak TC but the stronger Sanba would pull it towards the northeast...though it is also possible that the other system would be disrupted by Sanba's outflow and remain a weak disturbance as it tracks to the NE, maybe until Sanba moves away... Just a mere idea I can easily think of.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA is really slow on Sanba right now... this is clearly stronger than a 45kt storm...

[euro6208]

Sanba now a typhoon!...our 12th of the season! the forecast isn't good for okinawa...category 4 at landfall???

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 131.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.2N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.5N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 130.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 07
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOUD-FILLED PINHOLE EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO
THE LLCC. AN EYE-FEATURE ON A 120555Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE LINES UP
DIRECTLY OVER AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSION OF A STRONG NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE NER WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 48, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE
A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM (28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON SANBA IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY 17W TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RECEDING STR,
INTO A LIKELY RECURVATURE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72. THERE IS SOME DEGREE OF SPREAD
AFTERWARDS AS THE MODELS DEVIATE ON THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. DESPITE
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

JMA is really slow on Sanba right now... this is clearly stronger than a 45kt storm...

based on that image, i wouldn't be surprised if sanba was stronger than 65 knots...it has a cloud filled pinhole eye according to jtwc...

[dexterlabio]

JMA upgraded Sanba to a 60kt STS. That's quite a leap from 45kts in their previous warning...unless there was an intermediate advisory or something that I missed...

[Meow]

JMA is really slow on Sanba right now... this is clearly stronger than a 45kt storm...

based on that image, i wouldn't be surprised if sanba was stronger than 65 knots...it has a cloud filled pinhole eye according to jtwc...

So the JMA gave it 60 knots, and the JTWC gave it 70 knots.

[euro6208]

70 knots...

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.9N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.5N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.1N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 27.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 130.1E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 08
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WARM PINHOLE CLOUD-FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE FEATURE ON A 120938Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND RJTD TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A STRONG
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE NER WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 48, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE
A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, COUPLED WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) PERSIST.
C. BY TAU 72, TYPHOON SANBA IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 115 KNOTS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY 17W TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RECEDING STR.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 THEN SPREAD OUT WITH ECMWF AND EGRR AS THE LEFT OUTLIERS AND
NOGAPS AND GFDN THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD HAS NARROWED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, this storm decided it wanted to be stronger today, and it followed through on that decision. Just to share here is my video for this night and early morning. Plus tomorrow around 02UTC, 11JST , 10PST I am doing a live chat / live cast. It would be nice if some of you stopped by.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLSFngyoSnY[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Still Severe Tropical Storm by JMA.

STS 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 12 September 2012
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E130°00'(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[cycloneye]

Impressive microwave.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 75kts

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 33.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 129.8E.
TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN