up to 40 knots and expected to strengthen to a powerful typhoon south of okinawa...
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.8N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.9N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. //
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 111050Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 42 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT HAS MAINTAINED
A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RADIAL OUTFLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SAME ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS AN ENHANCED POLEWARD CHANNEL FEEDING INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), PERSIST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TS
17W WILL INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN WILL
ASSUME STEERING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
RESULTING IN CONTINUED STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 100 KTS BY
TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE RIGHT OUTLIER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST. A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS IS REFLECTED IN
THE TRACK FORECAST TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY RIGHTWARD BIAS OF JGSM. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH. //
NNNN
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