WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 12 September 2012
<Analyses at 12/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E129°55'(129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 13/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)
E129°10'(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[mrbagyo]

the eye is clearing out , and imho this has a potential of becoming our first cat 5 storm since it's about to cross the hottest waters on the planet. excellent overall outflow

[CrazyC83]

20120912 2032 14.6 -129.9 T5.5/5.5 17W SANBA

Supports 100 kt.

[cycloneye]

JMA up to 80kts

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 13 September 2012
<Analyses at 13/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°50'(14.8°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°50'(20.8°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL700km(375NM)

[Macrocane]

Sanba is a beautiful typhoon, it looks like a 105 kt cyclone to me, if the trend continues it could become a supertyphoon in the next 24-36 hours. This is not an official nor professional forecast.

[euro6208]

up to 90 knots although this might be on the low side as sanba continues to rapidly intensify!


WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.3N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 29.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 129.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A 14 NM EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A 122316Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY SOLID CENTRAL CORE OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SMALL EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THIS IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD CHANNEL.
THIS POLEWARD FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AS WELL AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW (LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU) WHICH IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PRODUCT SHOWS LIGHT (05 KT) SHEAR OVER 17W. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE AT AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE UNTIL POLEWARD OF 32 DEGREES LATITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC
MODELS. GFDN IS THE SOLE OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TO
OKINAWA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS WELL AN
ENHANCEMENT TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS FORECAST AT TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE YELLOW SEA
AND EAST CHINA SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE 350
NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. ECMWF REMAINS THE WESTERN-MOST OUTLIER, BUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD AND NOW RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH KOREA AFTER TAU 120. GFDN IS THE EASTERN-MOST
OUTLIER, AND TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS SASEBO, JAPAN. THIS SCENARIO
IS UNLIKELY, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE RE-CURVES THE
SYSTEM TOWARD SOUTH KOREA WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS BASED ON THE
FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 96, TY 17W
WILL START TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER
TAU 120.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very impressive typhoon...look how large this typhoon is and with excellent upper level outflow...i agree that this is probrably +100 knots

CIMSS estimates are at 104.6 knots while Raw and Adj T#s are at 115 knots!!!

[DukeDevil91]

Eye just cleared out beautifully. This has super-typhoon written all over it right now. Okinawa could very well see a cat 5 storm.

[euro6208]

i would place the intensity at 125 knots due to a well defined symmetric 14 nm eye which continues to get warmer and cloud tops cooling...
dvorak is really underestimating this storm...








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.2mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.3 6.3


going up!

[Macrocane]

No way this is still 90 kt, not even 100 kt!!!! JTWC can't be conservative in the next warning, it's beautiful but unfortunately dangerous, I hope everyone in its path is well prepared.

[Meow]

No way this is still 90 kt, not even 100 kt!!!! JTWC can't be conservative in the next warning, it's beautiful but unfortunately dangerous, I hope everyone in its path is well prepared.

Sanba is already 124.6kt under ADT. Also, the structure of Sanba is now very impressive.

[mrbagyo]

No way this is still 90 kt, not even 100 kt!!!! JTWC can't be conservative in the next warning, it's beautiful but unfortunately dangerous, I hope everyone in its path is well prepared.

I agree with Macrocane, with that extremely solid CDO, and symmetrical eye, IMHO,putting this at 110 knot(1 minute) is still conservative, the possibility of having a cat 5 out of this is becoming greater and greater...
as of now SANBA is 945 hpa(JMA), but looks more stronger than Bolaven at 910 hpa(JMA)

[P.K.]

Up to 95kts, intensifying pretty quickly this one.

WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 15.6N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 18.8N 129.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 150600UTC 22.2N 127.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 160600UTC 27.1N 126.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

[Meow]

Up to 95kts, intensifying pretty quickly this one.

The JMA estimates that Sanba will become the first violent typhoon in 2012.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eye just cleared out beautifully. This has super-typhoon written all over it right now. Okinawa could very well see a cat 5 storm.

They usually weaken somewhat when they get up to Okinawa but we'll have to wait and see with Sanba, it's one hell of a storm right now.

Talking of Okinawa, my flight arrives there 8pm tomorrow evening.

[Meow]

Now a category 4 typhoon, the JTWC estimates that Sanba will become the first category 5 typhoon in 2012.



WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.4N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.4N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 38.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 129.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND
140900Z.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Ugh, this storm is starting to make me think of Maemi.

[phwxenthusiast]

i'm seeing a finger of dry air perhaps trying to wrap into the circulation??

TPW Image from CIMSS


also on this MWI showing dry air on the northwestern side (greenish color is dry air)...


depending on how much gets in, we may see some weakening but i still think Sanba will become a Cat 5...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

100 knots

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 13 September 2012

<Analyses at 13/09 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)