WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
CIMMS ADT starting to get to silly numbers now, raw T7.4 final T7.2 = 146kts.... GULP!
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CrazyC83
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
Typhoon Hunter wrote:CIMMS ADT starting to get to silly numbers now, raw T7.4 final T7.2 = 146kts.... GULP!
That's probably a better estimate since it is breaking Dvorak constraints...145 kt (1-min) seems reasonable.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
pave way to the next super typhoon of the season, and probably the first Category 5 tropical cyclone worldwide...
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
also interesting to note that from a Cat1, it grew into a Cat4(well now it is evidently a Cat5) in less than 24 hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
First "Violent Typhoon" of the season from JMA?
Now 105kts gusting 150kts from them.
Now 105kts gusting 150kts from them.
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DukeDevil91
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
This thing is incredibly strong... The cloud tops are awesomely cold around the center. It has almost condensed itself in the last 2 hours of so. Amazing. Okinawa is about to get the right front of a cat 4 with former cat 5 tendencies to it.
Last edited by DukeDevil91 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
this typhoon is incredible, this will surely become the first category 5 typhoon worldwide,,, unfortunately.... NO RECON again
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
now at 135kts according to NRL, meaning not yet a Cat5. But really, DT numbers are exceeding 7.0, how come they would put the intensity below 140kts? I'm afraid this system won't get the proper recognition it deserves.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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DukeDevil91
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
I'll put this thing around 145 knots easy right now. Rita peaked out at 152 knots and this storm looks even better than she did, as ridiculous as that is to say..
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DukeDevil91
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 912.8mb/149.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5
Still climbing - supports an intensity of 150 kt.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
2nd super typhoon of 2012, and probably will be the first cat 5 in the near future
now 135 knots according to Jtwc.
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 43.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 129.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A PERSISTENT 18 NM EYE COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A 130638Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A SMALL EYE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM WITH SOME BANDING TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE
IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL. THIS POLEWARD FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
HONSHU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE CONTINUED EXCELLENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. TY 17W SHOULD CONTINUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THERE
IS LOW (<5 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING UPON THE SYSTEM,
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.)
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODELS. GFDN CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLE
EASTERN OUTLIER, DIVERGING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA AFTER
TAU 48, AND ECMWF IS THE WESTERMOST OUTLIER; HOWEVER, IT DOES STAY
WITH THE MODEL PACKING UNTIL TAU 72. GIVEN THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND AN
EXPECTED ENHANCEMENT TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM EASTERN CHINA, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS
IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND EAST
CHINA SEA FROM EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE AT TAU 96 BUT ALL DYNAMIC MODELS NOW AGREE ON A TURN INTO
SOUTH KOREA WITH THE EXCEPTION AFOREMENTIONED GFDN, WHICH TAKES THE
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN,AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE YELLOW SEA. BOTH THE GFDN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM UNLIKELY AS
A RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN,
AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 96, TY 17W
WILL START TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.//
NNNN
now 135 knots according to Jtwc.
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.1N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 43.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 129.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A PERSISTENT 18 NM EYE COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A 130638Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A SMALL EYE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM WITH SOME BANDING TO THE NORTH
AND TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE
IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL. THIS POLEWARD FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
HONSHU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE CONTINUED EXCELLENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. TY 17W SHOULD CONTINUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THERE
IS LOW (<5 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING UPON THE SYSTEM,
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.)
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODELS. GFDN CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLE
EASTERN OUTLIER, DIVERGING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF OKINAWA AFTER
TAU 48, AND ECMWF IS THE WESTERMOST OUTLIER; HOWEVER, IT DOES STAY
WITH THE MODEL PACKING UNTIL TAU 72. GIVEN THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND AN
EXPECTED ENHANCEMENT TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM EASTERN CHINA, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS
IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND EAST
CHINA SEA FROM EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE AT TAU 96 BUT ALL DYNAMIC MODELS NOW AGREE ON A TURN INTO
SOUTH KOREA WITH THE EXCEPTION AFOREMENTIONED GFDN, WHICH TAKES THE
SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN JAPAN,AND ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE YELLOW SEA. BOTH THE GFDN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SEEM UNLIKELY AS
A RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN,
AND THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 96, TY 17W
WILL START TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.//
NNNN
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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Meow
Why does everyone ignore the JMA’s historical report? Sanba is now the strongest in 2012.
TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2012
<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°20'(16.3°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20'(29.3°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2012
<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°20'(16.3°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20'(29.3°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
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DukeDevil91
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 62
- Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:04 pm
Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
It is a shame recon can't go out into this storm. 135 knots is an insult.
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Hurricane_Luis
- Category 2
- Posts: 723
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
- Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
- Contact:
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DukeDevil91
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 62
- Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:04 pm
Re:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:Can someone explain how you can have a Category 4 super typhoon, i thought a super typhoon was a category 5.
Anyway it looks brilliant
Wish we could have a visible right now. I'm excited to see how deep and tall this storm is at first light tomorrow.
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re:
Meow wrote:Why does everyone ignore the JMA’s historical report? Sanba is now the strongest in 2012.
TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 13 September 2012
<Analyses at 13/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°20'(16.3°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20'(29.3°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
PAGASA says NO! keeping it at 165kph( 1 minute sustained) maybe in their next update( 11 pm- manila time) things will change...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon
JTWC has been too conservative this season, I don't understand why.
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