WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

WOW!
Now it's almost certain that the JTWC will upgrade Sanba to Cat. 5 status at 2100Z.
T7.5 means 155 knots, 180 mph or 290 kph 1-minute sustained

TPPN10 PGTW 131508

A. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/1432Z

C. 16.7N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY CMG YIELDED A
7.5 DT. MET AND PT INDICATE 7.0. DBO DT DUE TO CONSISTANT 7.5
DT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 24 HOUR CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0920Z 15.9N 129.6E WIND
13/1254Z 16.4N 129.7E MMHS


QUAST

[euro6208]

oh wow...sanba you rock! the 6th Major Typhoon of the season!

[mrbagyo]

wow Sanba is really bombing it out,, pagasa is the real conservative, I even got a typo because of my amazement on their intensity reading. 165 kph really? (10 minutes)

[euro6208]

looks like it's around 145 to 155 knots! sanba truly has a very impressive perfect circle of a circulation with a very warm eye embedded right in the middle.....storms that display this type of structure are usually the ones that are groundbreaking!


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 909.7mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +19.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees

[euro6208]

WOW! looks like we have ourselves a very very strong ANNULAR SUPER TYPHOON!... recon???

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
BY A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO BANDING OUTSIDE OF THIS
RING, CONSISTENT WITH AN ANNULAR TYPHOON. A 130903Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
WITH AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME DISPLACED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
SYSTEM. FURTHER UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY. STY 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT HAS BECOME
ANNULAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS STY 17W STEERS NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODELS. GFDN
CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLE EASTERN OUTLIER, DIVERGING THE SYSTEM TO
THE EAST OF OKINAWA AFTER TAU 48, BUT HAS STARTED TO MOVE MORE WEST
TOWARDS THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING. GIVEN THAT STY 17W HAS BECOME AN
ANNULAR TYPHOON AND CONTINUES TO HAVE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, STY 17W SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS BUT WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS, AS THIS WILL BE ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 36,
STY 17W SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES MORE NORTHERN
LATITUDES AND ENCOUNTERS MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DUE TO A TIGHTER AGREEMENT IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND AS MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF A TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM EASTERN CHINA,
THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THE GFDN SOLUTION TO THE
EAST REMAINS UNLIKELY AS A RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. AFTER TAU 96, TY 17W WILL START TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND FEELS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER SOUTH KOREA.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

wow. jtwc describes it as annular.

[mrbagyo]

what will be the effect of this to 91w if this became annular?

[tolakram]

Not sure I agree with no banding, but it may be.

Saved IR Loop

[Hurricane_Luis]

Can someone explain how you can have a Category 4 super typhoon, i thought a super typhoon was a category 5.

When a tropical cyclone in the northwest Pacific reaches 130 knots 1-min maximum sustained winds, the JTWC will upgrade it to a super typhoon.

Thanks for explaining, Meow

[phwxenthusiast]

Taiwan will probably fly into this tomorrow although probably not at the eye itself, we'll see... they flew into the eye of Bolaven last time and that wasn't even near Taiwan so i'm hoping they do it this time... this is just too strong of a system to pass up research-wise...

[hurricanes1234]

Oh ____!!!!!! Look at how impressive this system is!!!! Wasn't it just a little tropical storm 24 hours ago? I knew Sanbu would become the strongest tropical cyclone of the year so far!!! 160 mph winds!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow is some of the words I have for today. This storm has been very impressive. I been very busy with it throughout the day, I will try tomorrow to make more of an effort to get here on S2K. Here is my overnight video on it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQn-XNrsMHI[/youtube]

[SouthDadeFish]

WOW:

[Ntxw]

Wow it's gorgeous, best looking and most impressive storm of the season in any basin imo What a beast!

[euro6208]

WOW! it is now 7.5 or 155 knots! it is impossible to determine how strong sanba really is...

i would personally place the intensity at 160 knots 1 minute...875 mb...since pressures in the wpac are lower than anywhere in the world...
The intensification of the storm has been so rapid that two of the Dvorak instruments, which won't allow for sufficiently rapid change, are lagging behind and spitting out estimates of 7.0. The more sensitive estimator has registered at 7.5 for the past six hours, and that's what the forecasters have chosen to use.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 906.4mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.5



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

hmm doesn't jtwc issue intermediate warnings for rapidly intensifying typhoons? kinda sad to think that if they didn't, we have to wait a few more hours before they upgrade this Super Typhoon to a category 5 even though it is already one using our eyes...but even if they did upgrade, it may be well below the peak intensity....

[P.K.]

This is one impressive looking TY now.

At 18Z JMA T7.5/7.5/D4.0 24hrs

[hurricanes1234]

Where did you all get those images? What's another site (besides the NHC satellite imagery) that I can get the latest images of storms around the world? For some reason, the images are not updating on the NHC website.

[P.K.]

The above JMA reading should be D3.5 24hrs, not sure why it says D4.0 when it was T4.0 at 18Z yesterday. JTWC also T7.5.

TPPN10 PGTW 131808

A. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/1732Z

C. 17.2N

D. 129.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 7.5.
MET IS A 7.0. PT AGREES WITH THE MET. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1254Z 16.4N 129.7E MMHS


CASPER

[Meow]

Sanba becomes the strongest typhoon since Megi in 2010.



TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 13 September 2012

<Analyses at 13/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°10'(17.2°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°50'(20.8°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°50'(30.8°)
E126°25'(126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)