WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#161 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 11:36 pm

Image

raw power...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#162 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:04 am

TRMM of SANBA through the eye

Image
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Re:

#163 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:12 am

Extratropical94 wrote:EDIT: PAGASA is sleeping ... AGAIN!
They carry Sanba at 165 kph sustained with 200 kph gusts (90/110 kt) and a central pressure of 954 mbars. Hello? Wake up please... :roll:

I remember them being that stubborn back in 2010 with Megi. Hard to believe that they are one of the official agencies and not the JTWC.


There is only one official WMO agency per region, in this case the JMA and not PAGASA. They just name things for their own use similar to how the CMA and JTWC independently number systems.

WTPQ20 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 18.5N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 22.2N 128.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 160000UTC 26.4N 127.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 170000UTC 32.1N 126.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#164 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:50 am

Remains at 110kts at 06Z.

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 19.1N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 22.4N 128.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 160600UTC 27.4N 127.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 170600UTC 32.9N 127.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
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#165 Postby Meow » Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:04 am

The PAGASA has waken up— 185 kph for Karen now. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#166 Postby Meow » Fri Sep 14, 2012 9:10 am

No longer a category 5 super typhoon.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.1N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 46.8N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 129.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 53 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#167 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:45 am

now on a weakening trend....
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#168 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:56 am

Image

the eye has shrunk and is now very small...

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#169 Postby Meow » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:06 pm

euro6208 wrote:the eye has shrunk and is now very small...

Due to its unsuccessful eyewall replacement cycle, Sanba’s eye has disappeared, and it is estimated to weaken gradually.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#170 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:45 pm

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:the eye has shrunk and is now very small...

Due to its unsuccessful eyewall replacement cycle, Sanba’s eye has disappeared, and it is estimated to weaken gradually.


i wouldn't say unsuccessful just yet... latest MWI showing the outer wall starting to become established once more...

Image

although you're right; dry air and wind shear might lead to more weakening today..

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#171 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:34 pm

I was suppost to fly in ad meet up with James "Typhoonhunter" today, but nature says otherwise now I'm stuck in Tokyo. To bad...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#172 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:14 pm

Image

from a category 5 to a category 3 typhoon with winds of 110 knots!


WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.4N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.6N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 34.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 43.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 52.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 128.8E.
TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#173 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 10:17 pm

Image


the eye has cleared out which means it is strengthening...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 938.2mb/115.0kt
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#174 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:11 pm

Image

outer bands affecting okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#175 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:22 am

Agree with you there Euro, really looks like it's consolidated again. Sporadic heavy squalls sweeping Okinawa right now but not a patch on what it will be like later tonight and into tomorrow morning!
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#176 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:51 am

Maintaining 105 knots since 21Z, Sanba is now approaching Okinawa and estimated to make landfall over Russia as a typhoon.

Image

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 15 September 2012

<Analyses at 15/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N23°25'(23.4°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W500km(270NM)

<Estimate for 15/07 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N23°35'(23.6°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40'(25.7°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°35'(28.6°)
E127°50'(127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°25'(34.4°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N43°20'(43.3°)
E131°10'(131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#177 Postby DukeDevil91 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:37 am

Sanba will retain it's current intensity due to the sucessful eye wall replacement. A larger and well defined eye is showing up on all satellites and on microwave.
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#178 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:16 am

wow look at that new eyewall! :eek:
Image

i really hope people in Okinawa are taking this seriously; i'm seeing some comments on FB and other blogs about boy who cried wolf or about hyping this thing up... i really don' think Sanba will "pull a Bolaven" on Okinawa... this definitely looks much better and no sign of concentric eyewalls, really tight system preserving those strongest winds near the core... it's gonna be interesting to see the winds reports from the islands tomorrow...

good luck out there James and stay safe, punch that eyewall!! :lol:

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#179 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:32 am

Thanks Pat, this isn't a storm to be messed with. Will approach it with utmost caution!
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#180 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:32 am

Is more organized now as it approaches Okinawa. Be careful James and stay safe.

Image
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