WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#181 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:06 am

it looks a lot stronger than it was this morning. that large well defined eye looks intense.
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#182 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:10 am

Thanks Cycloneye! Likely my last post here until after landfall. Wish Okinawa luck, it's going to need it!
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#183 Postby Macrocane » Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:55 am

Looks kind of annular with that big eye, a tight solid eyewall and little banding.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#184 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:29 am

Image

WOW! i expected a weaker version of sanba but he has strengthened but with a LARGE EYE! :eek:
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#185 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:32 am

Image

the eye is as large as okinawa...really bad situation over there but the island is pretty much typhoon proof like guam...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#186 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:37 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 35.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 39.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 48.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 128.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED VERY
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO A SYMMETRICAL 30-NM EYE. A
151146Z 91 GHZ SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF ELONGATION.
THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL OF THE SAME SSMI-S PASS, WHICH IS INTERROGATING
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, PAINTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 91 GHZ CHANNEL. THIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST, LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 37 GHZ SSMI-S
MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
TY 17W HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY ITS INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM. THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF
JAPAN REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
AFTER TAU 24. AS TY 17W TRACKS DEEPER INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM, THE VWS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT FACTOR IN THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TYPHOON
SANBA WILL MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, JUST BEFORE TAU
36 THEN COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) TRANSITION BY TAU 48. THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A FULL ET LOW BY TAU 72 AFTER IT BRIEFLY CROSSES
THE SEA OF JAPAN AND MAKES A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTH
KOREA/RUSSIA BORDER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH WBAR THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT AND AHEAD OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#187 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:59 am

Image

Image

it went through an eyewall replacement cycle and now it's eye has cleared out beautifully, it is hard to believe that this is only a 110 knots category 3 typhoon (1 min). oh well, the disadvantages of no recon... :roll: despite okinawa having such a large military population...


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 928.7mb/124.6kt
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#188 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:13 am

JTWC Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#189 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:17 am

You can like the Facebook page of Kadena Air Base and follow what is going on.

https://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#190 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:45 am

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/typhoon-17w-sanba-21-okinawa-sasebo-korea-at-the-ready-1.189424 By Dave Ornauer

12:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: It’s happening, folks. OK, doubters and naysayers on Okinawa, it’s probably not going to be as bad as Bart was 13 years ago. Touche. Typhoon Sanba will still pack Category 3-equivalent winds of 127 mph and gusts up to 155 as it crosses Okinawa later this morning. The island remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C early Sunday; expect an upgrade around 2 a.m. or thereabouts.

The eye is about 35 miles across and the storm is moving at about 14 mph. So parts of Okinawa might experience an unwarranted calm just before dawn. I say again: Avoid the temptation to go outside. You never know when the winds will kick back up again.

Expect most services, including the Green Line, to be closed until TCCOR Storm Watch is issued.

Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan entered TCCOR 2 late Saturday, and may or may not enter TCCOR 1 Sunday; depends on how close it comes. Right now, Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Sanba to roll 106 miles west of Sasebo around 4 a.m. Monday. Base forecasts call for 60-mph south-southwesterly gusts and showers as it roars by. Base shuttles will shut down if TCCOR 1 is issued.

Korea can also expect an upgrade from TCCOR 3 as Sanba beats an arc path toward the peninsula’s south coast, splitting the difference between Pusan and Mokpo as it crashes ashore around 9 a.m. Monday. Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu should feel a good bit of Sanba’s wrath; it will still be a Category 1-equivalent storm when it makes landfall, 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts.

Explanation of TCCOR here.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#191 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 15, 2012 12:43 pm

Looks like one injury has been reported, some damage to roofing, the storm is not there yet though and conditions will get worst.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE0rY5Ym53c[/youtube]
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#192 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:03 pm

JMA: 90 knots 925 hPa

Image

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 15 September 2012

<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°35'(25.6°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E260km(140NM)
W150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W500km(270NM)

<Estimate for 15/19 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°50'(25.8°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E260km(140NM)
W150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 16/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30'(28.5°)
E127°50'(127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area E310km(170NM)
W240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N31°40'(31.7°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area E350km(190NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N39°20'(39.3°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N46°25'(46.4°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#193 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:15 pm

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#194 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 15, 2012 2:23 pm

Uh this looks like a full blowin Cat.5 if not 4. Whats up with these conservative estimates....
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Meow

#195 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:08 pm

Believe or not.

JTWC: 105 knots

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 36.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 41.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 50.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 128.1E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 48 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN
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#196 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:28 pm

Kadena just entered TCCOR-1E (Emergency), meaning they are experiencing winds of 50 knots or greater. People are still out driving on the webcam link above.
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#197 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:07 pm

Is there a weather station on the island? A pressure reading would sure help in verifying the intensity.
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#198 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:09 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 928.9mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0
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#199 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:11 pm

Update: found a station on Okinawa, pressure 947mb so far. Winds are about 30 kt there so the central pressure may be 944mb if that is in the eyewall - stay tuned.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... 12&month=9
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#200 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:15 pm

Pressure indicates stronger than 105 knot winds.
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