WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#201 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:17 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Pressure indicates stronger than 105 knot winds.


944mb after an ERC would fall well in line with about 105-110 kt in the WPAC. However, it remains to be seen if it will go much lower. Storms with large eyes tend to be a bit weaker in winds, since the upper-level winds don't make it down as easily. If Recon was in there, I would think it would find a larger than normal FL-SFMR differential based on similar Atlantic storms.
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#202 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:30 pm

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=217

Landfall. Very strong northern eyewall but open to the south.
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#203 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:33 pm

strongest winds so far around around 55kts sustained; highest gusts i've seen so far are around 90kts or so... yes the minimum pressure at the last hour was 947mb and was recorded in Nago... the northeastern eyewall will be passing near Oku any minute now and will be close to Yoron-jima in the next hour and we could typhoon sustained be reported here...
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Re:

#204 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:34 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:strongest winds so far around around 55kts sustained; highest gusts i've seen so far are around 90kts or so... yes the minimum pressure at the last hour was 947mb and was recorded in Nago... the northeastern eyewall will be passing near Oku any minute now and will be close to Yoron-jima in the next hour and we could typhoon sustained be reported here...


That is the station I am following, it appears that 947 was in the RMW but with some wind at the time (hence I would analyze the landfall pressure at 944). I think the 105 kt intensity at landfall is reasonable based on that data.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#205 Postby P.K. » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:41 pm

So far Nago is down to 947.1hPa. Sustained winds of 25.9m/s (50kts) gusting to 42.9m/s (83kts).
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#206 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:44 pm

P.K. wrote:So far Nago is down to 947.1hPa. Sustained winds of 25.9m/s (50kts) gusting to 42.9m/s (83kts).


Concurrent? That would be a pressure of about 942mb.
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Re: Re:

#207 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That is the station I am following, it appears that 947 was in the RMW but with some wind at the time (hence I would analyze the landfall pressure at 944). I think the 105 kt intensity at landfall is reasonable based on that data.


goes well with the NRL estimate of 944mb with that 105kt winds...
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#208 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:49 pm

Northern Portion of Sanba's eye hitting Okinawa, at Cat 3 Strength Red line marks approximate location of the Island

Image
Last edited by Hurricane_Luis on Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#209 Postby P.K. » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:50 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 26.4N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 140NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 32.7N 127.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 171800UTC 39.3N 128.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 181800UTC 46.4N 132.6E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:52 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... IOKINAWA10

Now 945mb with about 40 kt winds (supports 941mb). Either way, NRL was close. It appears to have levelled out so the eye must be going through now.
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#211 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:53 pm

what an amazing pic this is, and eerie at the same time... :eek:

Image

James looks like he's enjoying the chaos out there based on his tweets, managed to get to Higashi and right into the eye... good for him!! :P
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#212 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:47 pm

There isn't any other place on earth more prepared it seems! Everything seems so subdued after the eye of a Category 3 storm went overhead?

Also I wonder where the JMA got the 925mb pressure as surface data does not support it (the central pressure at landfall appeared to be about 941 or 942mb in the end).
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#213 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:01 pm

My friend is vacationing in south Korea and is giving me updates. May I give some from him?
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#214 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:42 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:My friend is vacationing in south Korea and is giving me updates. May I give some from him?

As long as it isn't copyrighted material there shouldn't be a problem.
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Re:

#215 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:43 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:what an amazing pic this is, and eerie at the same time... :eek:

http://i46.tinypic.com/6qim2o.jpg

James looks like he's enjoying the chaos out there based on his tweets, managed to get to Higashi and right into the eye... good for him!! :P

Apparently his rental car was almost totaled, possibly by surge, based on one of his FB posts. He is fine though.
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#216 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:58 pm

I saw a photo on the Kandena FB page of someone living just outside of Gate 5, right near the seawall, water everywhere.

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http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a ... 1601_n.jpg
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Re:

#217 Postby greenkat » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:15 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I saw a photo on the Kandena FB page of someone living just outside of Gate 5, right near the seawall, water everywhere.

Image

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-a ... 1601_n.jpg


Wowww... And far from over yet in Okinawa... I am sad for them... :(
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Re:

#218 Postby greenkat » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:16 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Northern Portion of Sanba's eye hitting Okinawa, at Cat 3 Strength Red line marks approximate location of the Island

Image


Sanba shrunk but eye hasn't... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#219 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:32 pm

From Kadena:

We have now moved into TCCOR-1 Recovery. TCCOR-1 RECOVERY is destructive sustained winds of 50 knots are no longer occurring. Actual winds are 34-49 knots. No outdoor activity is authorized other than workers from pre-designated emergency crews. TCCOR1 recovery Mission-Essential Passes, which are issued to mission-essential agencies only, must be in the driver's possession before attempting to travel on Kadena. It looks like we should be out of this soon. But till then stay with us for up to date information. (LEB)
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#220 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:43 pm

adsolutely incredible storm...a monster typhoon making landfall but it looks like okinawa is doing just fine and business as usual...the comparison is startling, if this were to hit the states, we would see many chaos/panicking and evacuations but this is an island.....good job japan for your building infrastructure!
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