WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#221 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:49 pm

Image

95 knots...


WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 34.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 43.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 128.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF BUSAN,
SOUTH KOREA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF
BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 22 NM RAGGED EYE. A 160017Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN EYE AS WELL AS TWO OUTER BANDS OF
CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 120 NM TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE STORM
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, DRIER AIR IS RESULTING IN DECREASED CONVECTION IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES AS 17W
REMAINS LINKED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 17W WHILE 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IS BEGINNING
TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF JAPAN REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 2. AS TY SANBA TRACKS NORTHWARD, INCREASING
VWS, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (<26 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN DECREASING INTENSITIES. TYPHOON
SANBA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF USAN, SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 36 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 17W WILL TRANSITION TO A FULL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48 AFTER IT BRIEFLY CROSSES THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND MAKES A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTH
KOREA/RUSSIA BORDER. DUE TO THE STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, 17W MAY BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH SOME DIVERGENCE AFTER TAU 24. WBAR HAS
NOW MOVED CLOSER TO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A MORE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT AND AHEAD OF CONSENSUS BASED ON KNOWN MODEL
BIASES.//
NNNN
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Re:

#222 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Uh this looks like a full blowin Cat.5 if not 4. Whats up with these conservative estimates....
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Image

Image

i think i agree with you...this isn't a high end category 3 but likely a high end category 4 or even a 5...


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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#223 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:24 am

Luckily it wasn't a high end 4 or 5 otherwise I probably wouldn't be writing this.

I got a direct hit from the strong northern eyewall and winds were consistent with what I'd expect with a cat 3, any stronger and the storm surge would have washed me away. According to JMA radar at the time the centre of the eye passed exactly over my location in Higashi, it was cloud filled but perfectly calm. Here's what I shot:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgcrgsREugI[/youtube]
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#224 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:09 am

I doubt it's close to a category 5. Defined eye but it's starting to get ragged probably due to cooler waters. Glad to see the islands were prepared for the storm.

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#225 Postby DukeDevil91 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:15 am

Sanba is keeping it's tropical characteristics better than Tembin or Bolaven when they were at that latitude. I'm 40 miles South of Seoul. I will let you know how it turns out up here.
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#226 Postby greenkat » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:20 am

Wow... That's all I can say.

Next stop: Jeju!
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#227 Postby greenkat » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:21 am

DukeDevil91 wrote:Sanba is keeping it's tropical characteristics better than Tembin or Bolaven when they were at that latitude. I'm 40 miles South of Seoul. I will let you know how it turns out up here.


Thanks, we would greatly appreciate that! :cheesy:
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#228 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:42 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Luckily it wasn't a high end 4 or 5 otherwise I probably wouldn't be writing this.

I got a direct hit from the strong northern eyewall and winds were consistent with what I'd expect with a cat 3, any stronger and the storm surge would have washed me away. According to JMA radar at the time the centre of the eye passed exactly over my location in Higashi, it was cloud filled but perfectly calm. Here's what I shot:



wow i barely see any damage from there...except for trees stripped of their leafs...
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Re:

#229 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:43 am

galaxy401 wrote:I doubt it's close to a category 5. Defined eye but it's starting to get ragged probably due to cooler waters. Glad to see the islands were prepared for the storm.

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we are always prepared every year...this is routine :wink:
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#230 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:47 am

Image

next stop...south korea!



WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 30.7N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 35.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 39.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 45.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 127.9E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED JUST WEST OF
NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS TIGHT BANDING INTO
A 20-NM RAGGED EYE BEGAN TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON 161135Z SSMI-S IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED AS THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DUG INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN 17W EVEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), NOW AT 30-40 KNOTS, BECOMES EVEN STRONGER AS THE SYSTEM
EMBEDS DEEPER INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING AND TRACK ON A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. INCREASING VWS, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
FOLLOWED BY LAND INTERACTION INTO THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE KOREAN
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN A DRASTIC WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ITS
REMNANTS WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A
WEAK COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 24 AFTER EMERGING BACK IN THE COLD WATERS
OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT TYPHOON SANBA
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE TAEBAEK MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD AFTER TAU 24.
WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT AND AHEAD OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#231 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:58 am

Image
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Re: Re:

#232 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:24 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Uh this looks like a full blowin Cat.5 if not 4. Whats up with these conservative estimates....
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Image

Image

i think i agree with you...this isn't a high end category 3 but likely a high end category 4 or even a 5...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.


The pressure in Okinawa at landfall was about 942mb though, which does not support such a high intensity in the WPAC after an ERC. 105 kt seemed reasonable for a landfall intensity.
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Meow

#233 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:56 pm

85 knots. Approaching South Korea.

Image

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 16 September 2012

<Analyses at 16/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N32°10'(32.2°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E220km(120NM)
W170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM)

<Estimate for 16/19 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N32°30'(32.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E220km(120NM)
W170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°00'(36.0°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°25'(40.4°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N47°55'(47.9°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
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#234 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:39 pm

stations along the southern coast of South Korea are reporting winds of around 50 to 60kt (sustained)... lowest pressure so far is in Seongsan with 978.4mb

Nagasaki area also continue to report sustained of up to 60kt with gusts of up to 80kt...
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Re:

#235 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:01 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:stations along the southern coast of South Korea are reporting winds of around 50 to 60kt (sustained)... lowest pressure so far is in Seongsan with 978.4mb

Nagasaki area also continue to report sustained of up to 60kt with gusts of up to 80kt...


Pressure down to 972mb at that station in Yeosu. Based on the center placement, I would think the central pressure is around 960mb, but we need to wait and see.
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Re: Re:

#236 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:stations along the southern coast of South Korea are reporting winds of around 50 to 60kt (sustained)... lowest pressure so far is in Seongsan with 978.4mb

Nagasaki area also continue to report sustained of up to 60kt with gusts of up to 80kt...


Pressure down to 972mb at that station in Yeosu. Based on the center placement, I would think the central pressure is around 960mb, but we need to wait and see.


Namhae reported 966.2hPa 2 hours ago... i'm at mobile right now so i still have to check the location of landfall relative to the station but i think your estimate is quite good... in terms of winds, i'm actually quite surprised Yeosu managed to report strong winds despite it coming from inland (managed to have winds between 55kt and 60kt... a station east of the eye (Tongyeong) is able to get winds of around 50kt from the southeast but Kimhae Airport in Busan is only reporting sustained of around 35kt and gusts of around 50kt...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#237 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:43 pm

This is one of the stronger storms this far North. I do have that to say. Evacuations were ordered near the coastlines in Korea. Flights cancelled and now more heavy rains on tap. I guess just watch the video for my thoughts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pj7-Vem-hk[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#238 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 11:09 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 34.0N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 43.6N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 128.4E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF
PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND RADAR DATA FROM JAPAN AND KOREA. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. TY 17W IS TRACKING POLEWARD IN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN AND A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEGUN, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH DISPLACING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. ALTHOUGH INTERACTION WITH THE TAEBAEK MOUNTAIN
RANGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE
STEADY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE INTENSITY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STEERING FLOW THAN
DEPICTED IN MANY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBER MODEL FIELDS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#239 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 11:15 pm

Image


20120917 0232 34.9 -128.1 Overland 17W SANBA
20120916 2032 33.1 -128.1 T4.0/5.0 17W SANBA


Sanba has made landfall west of busan at 80 knots...
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Typhoon

#240 Postby DukeDevil91 » Mon Sep 17, 2012 2:09 am

Gusting to around 35 here at Osan. Light rain. You can tell by the cloud cover that it's a dried out storm.
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