EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 11:07 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209091549
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012090912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902012
EP, 90, 2012090912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 940W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 11:43 am

GFS develops this into a hurricane in 120 hours. Here is the 12z run.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 12:33 pm

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#4 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:53 pm

Euro develops this or atleast was. Should be Kristy.
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Re:

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 4:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro develops this or atleast was. Should be Kristy.


In 96 hours.

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#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:27 pm

Here we go again.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:44 pm

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Hopefully they add a floater soon.
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#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 12:55 am

Up to 40%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:46 am

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 12:55 pm

Stays at 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:47 pm

Stays at 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:50 pm

Kinda slow to develop.
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Re:

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Kinda slow to develop.

Big system.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:55 am

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:47 am

It's getting there now, think it will from in a day or two.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:39 pm

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:41 pm

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:47 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:09 am

What's up - only 20 posts? Come on, we could do better than that - just because it is the ePac doesn't mean we are to blank it out. :)
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