EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:37 am

Up to near 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND
THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#22 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:53 am

It was 100% last outlook too.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:08 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep112012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209121342
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:42 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 106.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:51 pm

18z Best Track says hello to TS Kristy.

EP, 11, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1063W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#26 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:39 pm

Hello Kristy!!
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:36 pm

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT
RETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. KRISTY ONLY
HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY
SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
TODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
WIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN
GENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 12, 2012 4:25 pm

Hi Kristy. Long time no see.
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Re:

#29 Postby greenkat » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Hi Kristy. Long time no see.


Yeah, Where's she been the last 6 years? :lol:
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:46 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well now...here is something interesting. My RI indicator popped up for Kirsty. It has been a while since we had an EPac system that went through RI. It popped up around 00Z 9/13 (8 pm EDT 9/12). Kirsty's intensity according to the 00Z BT is 40 knots. Going through RI would put Kirsty up to at least 70 knots by 00Z tomorrow night. The wind shear is forecast to be low, sea surface temps are warm and not too much in the way of dry air. The only things I can see that would most likely hinder RI is that the convection is not the strongest, and it is near land. Therefore, my intensity guess will be between 25 to 30 knots (right under or on the lower end of RI). "RI" should begin between 2 am and 4 am EDT (06Z to 08Z). Strongest predicted intensity between now and 00Z 9/14 is 65 to 70 knots.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2012 9:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT
INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING IS IMPROVING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH A BLEND
OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS REVEAL A QUITE IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WIND ANALYSIS
CONTRADICTS THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY JUST THE STRONG
OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MUCH
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INDICATES A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY
THE SHIPS AND THE HWRF MODELS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AFTER THAT...AND KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AROUND DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED
PRIMARLY ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF
MODEL ALL SHOW THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KRISTY GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE
GFDL MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A NORTH OR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE
TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#32 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:01 pm

Bout time brunota!

And boy do I love it when the NHC gives long discussions.
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#33 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:03 pm

:uarrow: :lol: I'm still not sold on it though, the indicator is there clear as day...but with the way this season has gone, I have my doubts.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Sep 12, 2012 11:17 pm

Looks like RI.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 5:32 am

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HAVE BEEN
VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF
KRISTY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE...A 0428 UTC AMSU PASS...
INDICATED SOME NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS...ALONG WITH ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS
MODEL AND CIMSS...SUGGESTS SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED
AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

KRISTY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX AND KRISTY WILL STILL BE OVER WARM
WATER AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS KRISTY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATE AFTER THAT TIME.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 9
KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL WHICH REMAINS AN
OUTLIER AS IT SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 18.5N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.0N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.6N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.7N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 25.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 13, 2012 7:41 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:Looks like RI.


Hardly. Looks kinds ugly on IR IMO.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:34 am

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE
BIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING
TOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS
BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY
WILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

THE CENTER OF KRISTY HAS BECOME EXPOSED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...
SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE
CENTER OF KRISTY CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOWARD COLDER WATER.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT KRISTY WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE THE SHEAR
CONTINUES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING
BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS.

THE MOTION REMAINS 295/9 KT...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER KRISTY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD STOP
KRISTY FROM MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH THE REMNANT LOW
LIKELY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TAKING A COURSE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE BAJA COAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ONLY AT 96 AND 120
HOURS WHEN KRISTY IS A REMNANT LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.3N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.8N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 22.9N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Yellow Evan
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#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:22 pm

Darn, Kristy not expected to become a cane.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
KRISTY HAS BEEN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OR BRIEFLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0000 UTC
WERE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
REFORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 45 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING OF KRISTY SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO
DECREASING SSTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE THE
SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN A DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE WILL ALREADY BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT. THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING GRADUAL
WEAKENING...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM MODEL. KRISTY
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS DUE TO COLD WATER.

THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING 295/5. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS KRISTY IS STEERED AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A
FEW DAYS. ONLY A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST
WAS MADE FOR THE FIRST 48 H TO COME CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS IT BECOME STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AT DAYS
4-5...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF KRISTY AT THAT
POINT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.2N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 22.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 23.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 25.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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